Colin: Before deep diving into the Georgia game, how surprised were you with the way the Michigan game turned out? 

Baver: It’s hard to be too surprised when your team loses to an 11-0 team, but I obviously didn’t see it playing out the way it did. The Bucks didn’t get man-handled in either sets of trenches like they did in ’21. But problems in pass coverage and tackling, along with just about every other problem imaginable were on display for all to see. The other thing, as much as it pains me to say….you have to give credit where credit is due. That’s a very good Michigan team….much better than the UM teams that the Buckeyes were steamrolling for the better part of the last two decades.                     

Colin: Along those lines, it’s very odd to go limping into the CFP. How do you think that affects the team mentally?

Baver: Where this team’s collective mind is right now has to concern you as a Buckeye fan. Though, the 5-weeks off from game-play should help this Buckeye team a lot. Marvin Jr and Cade Stover were really worn down late in the year. They kept suiting up, but were beat up pretty good. And their play on the field certainly indicated as much over the last few games.

Colin: Other than OSU upsetting Alabama in 2014, no other Big Ten team has even kept it close with the SEC in the CFP. How concerning is this trend heading into this NYE matchup?  

Baver: I haven’t really gotten hung up on perceived narratives in the prior SEC-Big10 CFP matchups. The CFB Playoff is an animal like few others in any sport. There have been 24 CFP games with the loser going down by double-digits in 19 of them. The 3 teams with the most CFB appearances? Bama, Clemson, and Ohio St. Look at the last three playoffs each of these 3 big dogs were a part of. You’ll find that each school has lost by 15 or more points twice during their 3 most recent trips to the playoff.

As for the SEC’s 3 lopsided wins over the B10 in the playoff era, the talent disparity was pretty big in each of those games. Sparty vs Bama in 2015 was the biggest talent mismatch this 8-year era has seen. The Ga team that beat Michigan a year ago ended up breaking the NFL record with 15 guys drafted this past April. UM was simply no match for them. Then you have the 2020 Bama team that rolled OSU by 4 TD’s. That was probably Saban’s most talented team. That team went on to have 8 of the first 38 players selected in the ’21 NFL draft. Ohio St did NOT have comparable talent.  

I don’t see a large talent disparity between the two teams we’ll see tomorrow. And I don’t think the bookmakers do either based on the 6½ point spread. Still, if Ga continues to be fundamentally sound, with the Buckeyes continuing to be undisciplined, it won’t matter. Ga will win convincingly.

Colin: What is the Buckeye running back situation and do you think they could surprise Georgia with an effective running game? 

Baver: Reports had Miyan Williams as full-go 10 days ago, but he was said to be under the weather, missing practice on Tuesday. Miyan again wasn’t out there during the 15-minute viewing period the media had access to Wednesday. I guess the Peach Bowl officials view the media much like Bushwood’s management viewed the caddies in Caddyshack…wasn’t their pool access from 12:00 to 12:15 on caddy day? Anyway, Dallan Hayden and Chip Trayanum were 1-2 in the pecking order in Miyan’s absence, though Miyan returned to practice Thursday.

Georgia has the best run defense in the country. This OSU team does not need to run for 200 yds, but they have to have ‘some’ success on the ground. I don’t mean to sound dire, but I can’t see OSU winning tomorrow if they are forced to abandon their running game.

Colin: Well, I think that somewhat answers my next question, which was to ask if Ohio State can score points strictly on the arm of CJ Stroud? 

Baver: They can, but not enough. Eventually, Ga’s well-coached D will almost surely force a one-dimensional OSU offense into several key mistakes.

Colin: Turning to the other side of the ball, the Silver Bullets secondary has been an absolute disaster and now we are finally facing a legitimate QB with talent all around him. Are we doomed? 

Baver: Agree…it can’t be stated enough; you cannot be this bad in pass coverage at Ohio St. Still, this #1 ranked Georgia team is not going to wow you with its WR group. Their #1 WR Ladd McConkey is questionable for tomorrow’s game. Statistically, they’re #2 WR has 303 yds and 2 TDs on the season. They have good RBs, but I wouldn’t call them elite. And Stetson Bennett is not an elite passer.

The problem is just about everything I have yet to mention. Brock Bowers is a TE no one can match up with. How does a 6-4, 230 lb TE run jet sweeps? And Bennett has played his best this year against the Bulldogs’ toughest opponents. Containing Bennett in the pocket often becomes a nightmare for defenders. Finally, UGA’s offense won’t be penalized often, and they lead the nation in red zone efficiency on offense. This isn’t me mixing the Ga units up…both their offense AND their defense lead the nation in red zone efficiency.

Colin: Final question: How do you see this playing out and do you have a score? 

Baver: I think you’ll see some things click a little better for OSU with some key players having their batteries recharged over the past month. If the Buckeye offense at least can keep the Ga defense honest with its run game, you could see a shoot-out. But ultimately, pure execution is likely going derail Ohio St’s upset hopes. Georgia’s not going to beat themselves, and that in itself will probably be enough for them. I am going to call it: Ga 35 Ohio St 26. It goes without saying, but I very much hope I’m wrong.

Colin: Final, final question: If the Buckeyes knock off Georgia, is the season a success no matter what happens in the title game?  

Baver: I am not even going there….let’s just hope we’re doing this Q&A again in what…8 days or so?  : D

Go Bucks!!

Great Q&A between Colin & Baver! I have to agree with Baver that OSU is likely not beating Georgia, and I’d say that probably extends to the other teams left as well, but a Buckeyes – Wolverines championship game would be something, `eh?

Colin asked for a few words from up north and I was talking to some friends last night about the Wolverines’ game and that I wasn’t sure what I’d say this morning, but we all agreed that Michigan should win against TCU, though the Horned Frogs are plenty capable of putting up a good fight. It’s foolish and premature to look past that, but we also felt that Michigan is at least in a better place to face Georgia this year than they were a year ago, and we don’t have to bring up the last couple meetings with…well, never mind.

So I’ll take Michigan against the spread, but I’ll hold off on my Buckeyes-Bulldogs wager `til closer to game-time, depending on my…mood. An OSU victory would make for some incredible sports, and like I said a couple weeks ago, we don’t posses quite the same level of venom up here as Columbus does for us, so if I had to lay it down now, Bucks with the points, and just dreaming about a UM-OSU title game! Can you imagine?