(Bet$ for Realz on back burner this weekend. Too much emotion. Big $ and Colin taking OSU ML)

Colin: Let’s start with X and O’s. What does Ohio State have to do to win this game?

Baver: While winning the turnover battle goes without saying, Ohio State will have to both run the ball effectively and contain Michigan’s ground game. A very telling, if not crazy stat: the team with the most rushing yards has won the last 21 meetings in this rivalry. UM’s stunts make it very hard to run the ball against their front-six/front-seven. So, TreVeyon Henderson and the Buckeye O-line are on the spot here big-time.

Outside of success on the ground, the Ohio St offense has to make good use of Emeka Egbuka. The Wolverine D is too good for OSU to simply target Marvin Harrison all day long. It was good to see Egbuka get back in the swing of things against Minnesota last Saturday.

Colin: What concerns you most about what Michigan might do?

Baver: Blake Corum. He’s an extremely smart, veteran back that makes opponents pay for missed assignments. Also, while Donovan Edwards has had a down year running the ball (3.4 yds per carry), we all remember what he did to the Buckeyes in the second half of last year’s game. And Edwards brings it in big games, as he did at Penn St two weeks ago. Last and certainly not least, a healthy JJ McCarthy almost certainly will cause OSU problems with his legs. Don’t look at his rushing stats on the year, as UM saves his legs for the big games. But McCarthy is playing through a knee injury, so we’ll have to see how much UM uses him on designed keepers.

Colin: Elephant in room. Michigan obviously cheated in “The Game” last year. ALL numbers and punishments support this fact. It doesn’t mean they wouldn’t have won honestly, but we will never know. CJ Stroud must be sick wondering what could have been… I digress.

Baver: Exactly. UM may have won honestly in each of the last two years, but how do we know that? And why are there now doubts about those UM teams? Because Michigan illegally gamed the system and put themselves in this situation. The insight gained in knowing its opponent’s signals fed their confidence, and was instrumental in helping to turn around a mediocre football program. And you don’t go to the extents Michigan went to without knowing how valuable it was to master sign stealing in ways that were blatantly against NCAA rules.

Colin: Michigan past wins are going away, (Say good bye to 1,000) Harbaugh will probably never coach in NCAA again, is there an advantage for either team mentally in your opinion? 

Baver: I want to say that the intangibles are in Ohio State’s corner this year, but acknowledge that my heart my be trumping my head. I think Ohio State saw 2021 as a fluke, and didn’t think it could happen again in 2022. Now OSU is being questioned by the national media and many of its own fans. While Michigan is certainly motivated by perceived injustices served up by the Big Ten and NCAA, I have to wonder if they feel they now own Ohio State. If so, that definitely helps the team wearing scarlet and gray.

Colin: How do the sportsbooks see things? And how do you see this one?

Baver: This game has been available to bet since April, where the first line I saw was Michigan -1. That spread made it up to Michigan -7 after UM’s first game following the sign stealing news, a 49-0 beat down of Michigan St. The spread dropped to UM -3 early this week, and as of Friday afternoon it sits at UM by 3.5.

I placed small wagers on Ohio St +3 in May, then OSU +4.5 after the scandal broke, and one more time on OSU +7 when the line peaked. It’s cool we can now do this kind of thing in Ohio.

I think you will finally see a close game here, as well as the first low scoring OSU-Michigan game in years. The last 4 Michigan games have seen total points scored of 101, 83, 69, and 68. And there hasn’t been less than 50 pts scored in regulation since the 2016 game that went to OT tied 17-17. The over/under for this one is 46.5, with OSU and UM having two of the best defenses in the country, while Ohio St’s PPG have dropped considerably from a year ago.

I think OSU plus 3 or more is the play against the spread, while the outcome could honestly go either way. If my life depended on calling it, I’d take the Buckeyes to win it with score in the 21-17 or 21-20 ballpark. 

This game of course always has ridiculously high stakes, yet those prior games don’t seem to match up with this year’s stakes. This cheating scandal has both sides up in arms, and tomorrow is going to be nuts. May noon tomorrow come sooner than anticipated. Gear up.

—Brent Baver

While the scandal and the punishment are obviously front and center up here, they’re being used by the team as rallying points rather than risks. What else are they gonna do? Still, objectively you can’t deny the distraction. And with a game this tight, this important, and this big – a distraction could be the difference. Or, if used correctly, the motivation to give Harbaugh the game ball could be the juice Michigan needs to get their third win in a row in the series.

While the program is undeniably tarnished and embarrassed, and OSU fans like to frivolously toss around terms like “obviously cheated in The Game last year,” the fact is that it wasn’t obvious. And even if they did, a victory that lopsided, that decisive, goes way beyond those allegations. I’m not making excuses - Michigan was brazen and stupid and they got caught breaking the rules. They deserved to be punished, and they have been. But let’s try to be just a little objective on the other side too. This Michigan team is NOT an otherwise “mediocre” team.

Harbaugh’s absence will absolutely be a factor today, just as it was the last two weeks, including the Penn State game, before the investigation was even complete, a couple convenient days before facing their first ranked opponent. I don’t think the distraction and the absence of their coach will help them today, and I think OSU is looking for redemption. If Michigan wins, we’ll hear more excuses, and I doubt it would elevate the Wolverines above mediocrity in the eyes of the wolves, but it should.

I’ve been surprised OSU is the underdog. They’ve had more decisive wins in an arguably more difficult schedule and they’re ranked higher. If I bet against my own teams I’d take the Buckeyes with the points in a heartbeat, but I don’t, and I’m not going to sit in my living room, 19.9 miles from the Big House, hoping I win on the backs of OSU. I’m not going in with a lot of confidence, but I’ll put down a little on Michigan against the spread just to make it interesting. Good luck to my Columbus pals. Always remember that you hate us way more than we hate you. It’s just a game. It’s just THE GAME. Peace and love from the state to the north. The best team will win. Go Blue!