Colin & Baver Q & A:  Buckeye Stakes Absurdly High in Happy Valley

Colin: Whew. That was a rough performance from the offense vs Nebraska. What was the #1 thing we learned and where can we go from here?

Baver: #1 thing? …the fact that a Chip Kelly offense absolutely has to run the football efficiently for this offense to be successful. The TreVeyon/Quinshon combo ran for 54 yards at 2.7 yds/carry behind a porous O-line. That failure led to the offense gaining just 11 first downs while losing the time of possession battle 35 minutes to 25…. ridiculous futility levels for this team. If the they weren’t facing Penn St, I’d say those numbers can only get better this week. But, the O-line and the tandem at RB will have to play their hearts out at Penn St. Thankfully, the Buckeye defense stepped up when it needed to, and an upset was avoided.

Colin: On paper, the defense played well, but upon closer examination Cornhusker true freshman QB Dylan Raiola missed a number of easy throws that could have easily made this game look more like the Oregon result. Coming into his third season with the program, is there any reason to believe a Jim Knowles defense can win a game in the 4th quarter against a top opponent? 

Baver: I can’t disagree on the fact that it could have been worse. Ryan Day told us this team would show up “angry” against Nebraska and that didn’t happen. Being angry and playing elite defense in College Station, PA has become a must.

But following CFB as closely as I know you do, you’ve seen that every elite team in America has struggled mightily at times this year…and done so like we’ve never seen before. It’s a new era, and it’s brought chaos to college football. As for Knowles, I do believe his D likely will play well shouldering the load tomorrow.

Colin: Those who don’t like Ryan Day seem to be beside themselves right now. It started with the loss to Oregon, and his team’s performance against the Huskers now has this group of fans wanting to riot. So give us your thoughts here.

Baver: I try to keep these responses short, but this won’t be. Day has made several comments regarding an ‘extended season’…no doubt a CLEAR expectation of being in the playoffs. With 7-0 Penn St, 8-0 Indiana, and UM all left on OSU’s schedule, it’s possible Ohio St could miss those playoffs. While a 10-2 record still likely gets OSU in, I don’t think Ohio St missing those playoffs is all that far-fetched. That would be a HUGE blow for Ryan Day.

In his first 3 years as HC, we never witnessed Ryan Day losing his cool on the sidelines. Now it’s a frequent occurrence. I don’t necessarily have a problem with Day lambasting officials or his players. I just know that this isn’t the same Ryan Day that took over in 2019; he’s definitely feeling the heat. While extreme heat is the norm at elite programs, the NIL/transfer age have made it FAR MORE DIFFICULT for every head coach in today’s game.

As far as the criticism of Day up to this point? Here are some major points I push back: (1) If the 71 games he’s now coached qualified for the list of all-time winningest coaches, then Day’s 83.7% win-rate would rank #2 all-time behind only Knute Rockne. Think about that. (2) Day’s 2-6 record vs top-5 teams? The last three of those losses were: a 1-pt road loss to (now #1) Oregon, a 6-pt road loss to eventual nat’l champ Michigan; and a 1-pt loss in Jan ’23 to eventual nat’l champ Georgia. (4) I think Urban was probably Ohio St’s best coach ever. But the overall schedule Day has faced compared to Urban? It’s not close. Urban lost to four unranked teams, three of them by 2-TDs-plus. Day has never lost to a team ranked in the lower half of the top 25, let alone an unranked team. Urban faced two top-10 ranked UM teams at OSU. Day? He’s faced a top-10 UM all four times. Meanwhile, those bastards up north dodged Day’s 2020 team (supposedly due to Covid), a team that was favored by 30. And do I need to mention the stolen signals in ’21 and ’22…games that list as OSU losses (for now)?

Colin: Okay, moving on to the Buckeye’s trip to Happy Valley. Talk about James Franklin’s ’24 team. 

Baver: In his 11th year at PSU, Franklin team is ranked 3rd, the highest Penn St ranking since a 2-game stretch in 2017. Franklin has pounded the Vegas point spread since his first big year at Penn St (2016), covering the spread 60% of the time (21 games above .500). Those numbers come despite of his 16-19 outright record vs Top 25 teams during that same stretch.

Like most years, the Nit’s front-6 on D is elite. Edge rusher Abdul Carter and DT Zane Durant will lead that front tomorrow, but rising star DE Dani Dennis-Sutton is questionable, having not practiced all week fighting a groin injury. Penn State continues to operating out of a two-tight set with Penn St’s leading pass catcher Tyler Warren being the latest in PSU’s long history of stud TEs. QB Drew Allar is listed as questionable, but as of Friday afternoon, it sounds like Allar is a go, and will start against the Buckeyes. Allar is throwing the ball downfield far more efficiently this season under new OC Andy Kotelnicki.

Colin: Specifically, what players must show up to win this top five match up in Happy Valley? And give us some final thoughts.

Baver: Guys on that spot will likely make up three-fifths of OSU’s much-maligned O-line. Other than (maybe) Will Howard, left tackle Josh Simmons was the guy Ohio St could least afford to lose because of depth by position. Simmons made his way up to a late 1st round projection in some mock drafts before being lost to injury.

It appears the Buckeye’s best interior lineman Donovan Jackson will get the call at that ever-important left tackle spot. Zen Michalski was beaten consistently at LT last Saturday, and is doubtful tomorrow due to an injury. Pushing Jackson outside means OSU loses its top interior lineman, but this seems like the only viable option. That likely puts Austin Siereveld at LG, with the Tegra Shabola/Siereveld combo left with Shabola solely at RG. Siereveld was subbing in at RG due to Shabola’s rough ride there this year.

Lastly, I think this game is literally a toss-up and will be lower scoring. The time is now…have to get this win as the team’s collective backs are against the wall.

Go Bucks! -- Brent Baver

Friday Bet$ For Realz

Your Pencil Storm prognosticators are back for another season of Friday bets for real. These are actual bets placed by actual people. However, it is important to remember that we are not encouraging you to follow our lead and gamble your hard-earned money away on our behalf. But it is also important to remember that “winners play and players win, baby!” Okay, let’s do this.

Big $ (Pencil Storm Browns Beat Writer)

Still riding high from my 35-1 hit on Freddie Freeman's series MVP run (bum ankle or not he is too damn good to ever have that kind of + number next to his name). So lets sprinkle a bit on succinct big10 parlay.

OSU v PSU  over 46.5

Minnesota-3 over Ill (row the boat)

Oregon -14.5 over ttun

good luck, fade or tail

Colin Gawel (Colin’s Coffee, Pencilstorm, Musician at Watershed)

Between the coffee shop and the Day Drinking For Democracy gig on Sunday at Woodlands Tavern I haven’t had a chance to do much research so I am out this week. I do like Big $ going with the over for PSU v OSU. 

Also, strictly horse race, if I was forced to bet my Telecaster on the election, I would bet Kamala.

Jeremy Porter (Musician, fast-food Mexican connoisseur, terrible gambler, Pencil Storm Co-Editor in Chief)

I thought the Texans at +2 last night over the Jets was a LOCK so I jumped all over in with greater gusto (read: more cash) than I normally would have and it turns out the Texans suck even worse that A-hole #1 Aaron Rodgers and the Jets do, so there ya have it… but I did win on the Dodgers taking the series and am on an otherwise not bad roll.

Probably won’t touch the Wolverines game as my head tells me Oregon will easily cover, though my heart begs to differ. (also not feeling great about my UM will win the Big-10 bet I placed before the season.) OSU seems fairly safe at -3 against Penn State though, so I may journey over to the dark side for that one.

AMERICA’S TEAM The LIONS have been kicking all sorts of unprecedented ass and QB Goff is leading they way in more than convincing fashion, but the battered fan in me still raises an eyebrow when they go to Lambeau. It’s down to -2.5 from 3 a couple days ago, and I’ll probably jump on that because they’re my homies. I’ll also take the Falcons -3 at home over Dallas because Dallas losing against the spread has been pure gold for me for weeks now as they just can’t seem to do anything right for very long and I’ve not liked that team since I was a kid and my dad told me he was rooting for Denver in the Super Bowl.