Okay, okay. We get it. Football is king. The NBA didn’t even get its own Christmas this year, sharing it with the NFL on Netflix, plus a side of Beyonce to boot. Now, as we approach Martin Luther King Jr. Day, and the NBA’s other holiday showcase spectacular, the first ever 12-team College Football Playoff Final is taking center stage.

But after Monday, there’re only three more football games left! Makes you wonder though, if the NBA wouldn’t be better off starting the season Christmas Day, kicking off the NBA Cup on MLK Weekend, and extending the playoffs a little later into the summer. You know, when July and August bring the sports doldrums, and fans are left with little choice. The good old attrition strategy.

The owners won’t like it, but I’ll go so far as to say the league should reduce the number of regular season games. Maybe to somewhere around 65. Less excuses for star players to sit out and less chance of injuries derailing a whole year’s expectations. Means the games matter a bit more too.

But I digress. MLK Weekend is really a perfect time to take stock of where the NBA season is and where it’s heading. It’s right about the halfway point of the regular season with the trade deadline a little over two weeks away. A week after that is the All-Star Break and before you know it, we’re in the stretch run to the playoffs.

So we here at Pencilstorm want to make sure you’re primed and prepped, or stylin’ and profilin’ as the younger hepcats like to say, when it comes to diving into the middle of the NBA season. We’ll let you know who’s the real deal and what to expect come June. Now, you can bore the hell out of all your friends; like a true NBA fan.

The Contenders

Three teams have clearly stood out as a cut above in the Cavs, Thunder, and Celtics. At least one of these teams is making the Finals. All three teams are in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating. Only the Rockets and Grizzlies, with the fourth and fifth best records respectively, can also say the same.

The Celtics were the odds-on favorite to win it all coming into the season, but winning two in a row ain’t easy. It’s very hard to lock in for a title defense* and while the C’s remain supremely talented, do all those guys still want it bad enough? Boston also hasn’t won back-to-back since Bill Russell retired. “Are they even a serious franchise?”, some are asking.

*I’m not just taking Pat Riley’s word on this. I also speak from experience as a former ARB (Akron Rec Bureau) player and champion in 1993. (But not in 1994, obviously)

The scariest thing about the Thunder besides their sound, is they’ve done all this without arguably their second-best player, budding star “Honest” Chet Holmgren. Actually, there might be something scarier. Via the Paul George trade, the Thunder own the 76ers first-round pick if it falls outside the top six. In a very loaded draft. For which they may potentially have five first-round picks.

As for the Cavs? One of the best stories in basketball. This is the way teams dream it up. Lose a couple of superstars? No worries. Build up assets. Hit on draft picks. Trade for a youngish star. Have the culture in place to convince them to stay. It’s not easy, but when it works, it gives every team in professional sports hope. Cleveland is back to where it’s best. The ultimate underdog with the heart of a champion.

But that’s just how it looks right now midway through this season. The ensuing months will determine if teams like the Knicks, Bucks, Nuggets, Timberwolves, Mavericks, and Suns can get their struggles right and join this elite group. And if the surprising Rockets and Grizzlies are truly as good as their record indicates.

Picks and Predictions

Here’s a look at my preseason picks for the East. I really biffed it on Philadelphia. Of course, few could have predicted that Joel Embiid of all people might miss a ton of games with injury. In seriousness, I fell again for the promise of Paul George ever being able to carry a team again.

2024-25 NBA Picks

Eastern Conference

Preseason Prediction Seed and Record through 1/16/25

1. Boston 2. 28-12

2. New York 3. 27-15

3. Philadelphia 11. 15-24

4. Cleveland 1. 34-6

5. Milwaukee Bucks 4. 22-17

6. Indiana Pacers 6. 23-19

7. Miami Heat 8. 20-19

8. Orlando Magic 5. 23-19

9. Chicago Bulls 10. 18-23

10. Atlanta Hawks 7. 21-19

11. Toronto Raptors 13. 10-31

12. Brooklyn Nets 12. 14-27

13. Detroit Pistons 9. 21-20

14. Charlotte Hornets 14. 9-28

15. Washington Wizards 15. 6-33

In defense of my West preseason picks, no one got this conference right outside of picking OKC first (which I almost didn’t do). All but three teams are legitimate playoff contenders with six games separating seeds 3-12. I perhaps overrated the Suns, but I do see them coming back into the mix, especially if they make a trade for Jimmy Butler.

Western Conference

Preseason Prediction Seed and Record through 1/16/25

1. Oklahoma City Thunder 1. 34-6

2. Phoenix Suns 10. 20-20

3. Denver Nuggets 4. 24-16

4. Minnesota Timberwolves 8. 21-19

5. Dallas Mavericks 7. 22-19

6. Los Angeles Lakers 6. 21-17

7. New Orleans Pelicans 15. 10-32

8. Memphis Grizzlies 3. 26-15

9. Sacramento Kings 9. 21-20

10. Golden State Warriors 11. 20-20

11. Houston Rockets 2. 27-13

12. San Antonio Spurs 12. 19-20

13. Los Angeles Clippers 5. 23-17

14. Utah Jazz 14. 10-29

15. Portland Trail Blazers 13. 13-27

Playoff Preview

I really didn’t want to pick Oklahoma City to win the West. I just feel that teams get to that level in stages. The Thunder are so young! They’re the youngest team in the NBA by age and experience, averaging less than three seasons per player. I just think a team like that needs to have a deep run in the playoffs end in a gut-wrenching loss before they understand what it takes to reach the Finals the next year. Maybe that’s old school anymore.

If you could have forced me to pick a champion before the season started, I’d probably take Denver (edging out Phoenix) over Boston in the Finals. The Celtics on their end withstanding strong challenges from the Knicks and Sixers.

As it stands, I think the Knicks belong in the conversation with the Celtics and Cavs as the cream of the East. I wouldn’t count out a surge from Giannis and the Bucks and though it would likely take a miracle to avert the disaster Philly’s season has been, when healthy, they can still be dangerous.

Right now, the Cavs are my choice to make it to the Finals but if the Celtics regain their fire, and the Knicks can gel just right, we might be in store for some ridiculously good playoff series.

In the West, I can’t count out Denver or quit being intrigued by Phoenix. The Nuggets might be figuring it out but the Suns not so much. Still, if they somehow subtract Beal and add Butler, I think they can be a threat in the playoffs. While I don’t see many major ones happening, trades can totally shake things up. Even the Lakers could have a shot.

It’s seriously any given Sunday in the wild, wild West though, and just like last year, there’s virtually no telling who’s going to be the last squad standing. My bet is on the Thunder, however. I’ve seen enough and their combination of depth and skill, both ways, I just don’t see any teams stopping in a seven-game series.

Finals Prediction

NBA Finals: Thunder over Cavs in 7
East Finals: Cavs over Celtics in 7
West Finals: Thunder over Nuggets in 6

League MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - Thunder
Coach of the Year: Kenny Atkinson - Cavs
Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama - Spurs
Rookie of the Year: Stephon Castle - Spurs