Can Gary Patterson and TCU's defense slow down Ohio State's offense? - Baver answers Colin's questions

You can hear Baver every Friday at 7:40 am on CD1025 with Brian Phillips. Follow @baverbuckeyebag

Colin: Ok, everyone is losing their minds over this Buckeye offense but I suppose it’s worth noting that OSU beat Rutgers 58-0 and 56-0 the past two years with JT Barrett putting up huge passing numbers as well. So technically 2018 is a step backwards. Are we getting ahead of ourselves or is this offense destined for greatness? 

Baver: The upside of this Buckeye offense is the highest it’s been since Urban’s arrival.  But yeah, Rutgers is not good, and Oregon St’s defense is as bad as it gets. We will know a lot more around 11:30 pm Saturday night. 

Colin: Could we lose Haskins to the NFL after one season? 

Baver: Yes…and Haskins is currently running either 3rdor 4thin the Heisman odds, depending on the sportsbook. I see Todd McShay is already talking about Haskins NFL upside. And if Dwayne has a big game Saturday night, then you will hear a lot more talk about Haskins bolting after this season. Still, there isn’t much of a sample size right now in terms of Haskins’ performances against good competition. He played less than a half against Michigan last year - that’s it. Again, we will know more after Saturday.

Colin: What does TCU have to do to slow down the Buckeye attack and are they capable of doing it? 

Baver: Phil Steele has each of TCU’s three units on defense (DL, LBs & DBs) as the top units in the B12. Now, the B12 isn’t known for playing much D, so let’s not mistake this for Alabama’s defense. But if there is one coach that is capable of getting a high-powered tempo offense in a funk, it’s Gary Patterson. TCU’s 4-2-5 defense doesn’t have to substitute much to match up with the personnel on opposing offenses. And tempo offenses often feel a need to slow down to study the Horn Frogs’ alignment. But TCU is going to have to apply consistent pressure on Haskins and force some critical mistakes, otherwise I can’t see them winning this game.  

Colin: The defense faces its first test this weekend against TCU. Are they prepared to stop a top flight mobile QB in Shawn Robinson? 

Baver: I re-watched the Rutgers game focusing on the linebackers, and although the defense played much better than they did a week prior, the LB play is just plain bad in terms of what we are used to seeing in Columbus. Like Oklahoma and Iowa last year, I think TCU will try to expose the Buckeye LBs with the short passing game. Luckily, TCU doesn’t throw to the TE much, so that part of the nightmare from last year’s Iowa game shouldn’t reoccur. I think Robinson will make some plays with his legs, and the WR combo of Kavontae Turpin & Jalen Reagor (4.32 speed) will hit a few big plays. But the OSU D-line will force Robinson into making some key mistakes. Nick Bosa is possessed right now, and it’s like nothing I have seen before out of an OSU DE, and we’ve had some good ones. 

Colin: Forgot a Ted Ginn style punt return, can we just fair catch the ball without it hitting the turf? What gives? 

Baver: After McCall misplayed the first one, you’d have thought that he would have made damn sure he caught the 2nd one cleanly. Nope. Ohio State has too much talent on this team to give McCall many more shots. Yeah, I am too the point where I just want the punt fielded cleanly and let the offense put the ball in the end zone. 

Colin: Final thoughts and prediction? 

Baver: I am going to guess Urban Meyer has spent the better part of the last three weeks scouting TCU’s defense. I think even with a first-year starter at QB, Meyer and Ryan Day will have this offense well prepared for the TCU defense. I do worry you will see some chinks in the armor with the OSU O-line, but Haskins, the tailbacks, and the WRs should be too much for the TCU D. On the other side of the ball, as mentioned, the Bucks will surrender some big plays and some points, but the Buckeye D-line will cause too many problems for TCU and Shawn Robinson. Prediction: Ohio State 42 TCU 24, and I’d feel comfortable laying the 13 pts here.

Colin: What other games and lines will you be keeping an eye on this weekend? 

Baver: I think Joe Burrow is now settling in and I see LSU hanging tough with Auburn. So getting 10 pts looks like a solid play to me. Of course, LSU is coached by Ed Orgeron, so I make look foolish here. I tend to think Boise St gets it done at Ok State, so I like the Smurfs catching 2 pts there. Best Boise team in a while. And I think the Bama train keeps rolling and covers the 21½ at Ole Miss. Bama usually wins Nat’l Titles with an average QB, and Tua is far better than average.

Baver Answers Colin's Questions - Terp Week

Colin: OSU has had 3 games against glorified high school teams since Oklahoma gave them a dose of reality. What have we learned over the last 3 weeks?

Baver: You are starting to see the depth this Buckeye team has. The backups, as a whole, didn’t look good against UNLV, but they looked scary good this past Saturday. It didn’t matter that it was against a bad Rutgers team; you could still see the talent all over the field. What else? JT looks more confident, but that confidence may fade in a bigger game. The D-line is probably even better than we thought they would be, if that is even possible. Kendall Sheffield may have Superman’s body, but he isn’t OSU caliber at cornerback, at least at this point. The WRs I think are starting to get there. Urban & Kevin Wilson are really working on the passing game, as they threw the ball all night at Rutgers. They certainly know that the passing game has to get better against real competition. Oh….and Parris Campbell still has all kinds of issues catching the ball. It’s a good thing he runs like a gazelle.

Colin: What chance does this Buckeye team have of challenging top dogs like Alabama and Clemson?

Baver: Not good….unless JT takes some MAJOR strides. Right now, I am worried about Penn State. If they can get the offense in gear against the Nits and post a big win, then I think we revisit this question.

Colin: The six man rotation at wide receiver…am I crazy or is starting to actually make some sense?

Baver: It’s definitely looking better, and Ohio State’s depth as mentioned, will continue to wear teams out. That rotation is starting to grow on me. And so many of these receivers create different problems for defenses. You have the pure speed of Campbell, Binjamin Victor’s long frame, and Terry McLaurin’s devastating blocking ability. Still….these guys still have to prove they can get it done against top-tier D’s. They were overmatched against Oklahoma, but the light at the end of the tunnel is getting a bit brighter.

Colin: The Terps road win over Texas was a fluke, right? How does the OSU-Maryland game play out? 

Baver: Maryland is a yo-yo. You mentioned the upset at Texas. Two weeks ago they hosted Central Florida and lost 38-10. Down to their 3rd QB because of injuries, you write Maryland off, right? The Terps then go on the road as a double-digit dog and beat Minnesota. Maryland may have the best running attack that Ohio State will have faced to date, led by Ty Johnson, a guy that probably has a future in the NFL. You will see the Bucks have a lot of success through the air for the 4th straight week, as the Terps pass defense is pretty bad. Maryland could hang around this week, but in the end I’ve got Ohio State winning 45-17.

Colin: Give us an update on your picks, and what will CD1025’s Brian Phillips’ Wazzu team do for an encore,as they travel to Eugene to face the Ducks?

Baver: 11-5 against the spread so far. I think Maryland plus the 31 is the play against the Bucks if you have to make one, but I’d stay away from that game as the spread looks about right to me. How does Washington St get up for another huge game for the 2nd week in a row? Autzen is always a tough venue to play in but I think the Cougs stays undefeated, and I’d lay the 3 pts against the Ducks.  The Oregon defense may be slightly improved after hefty coordinator Brady Hoke was shown the door after one season, but that Duck defense is still not very good. And I like Miami laying the 3 pts in Tallahassee against a reeling Florida State team. Nole freshman QB James Blackman, the so-called Slim Reaper, is not ready for big-time football at this stage.

Baver's Buckeye Bag - Picking Through Oklahoma Debris and Army

Listen to Baver Friday Mornings at 7:40 am on CD1025 and follow @baverbuckeyebag

Colin: Ok, it's the question that's been asked a million times, a million different ways, but here goes: Oklahoma puts 10 guys on the line with one safety and we cannot complete a down field pass. This should be like shooting fish in a barrel. What the hell?

Baver: It’s several things… JT’s inaccuracy, JT not trusting his WRs, the WRs inability to get open, and the offensive game plan. There are HUGE problems with JT and the WRs, no doubt about it. And OSU’s all-time leading passer in several categories may soon find a seat on the bench. But the offense we saw Saturday night is still Urban’s…”same as it ever was…same as it ever was”. And the video on Eleven Warrior’s Ramzy Nasrallah’s Twitter Feed linked here >https://twitter.com/ramzy/status/906929593671712768 shows OU free safety Will Johnson knowing the precise rout Parris Campbell would run before Campbell even ran it. This is mind-boggling. But back to your comment about Oklahoma selling out to stop the run. Ohio State still ran the ball well, getting 101 yards off 16 carries between Dobbins and Weber. Why did they only have 16 combined carries? This is an Urban thing, and the extended 5 ½ year honeymoon officially ended for Urban this past Saturday.

Colin: Teams have adjusted to stop J.T. Barrett. The offensive numbers against Michigan, Clemson and Oklahoma are brutal. Let alone the fact Watson and Mayfield completely out played our QB. That is not the recipe for success. Is there any hope of a J.T. revival?

Baver: I was one of JT’s biggest supporters, and finally started to jump ship after re-watching the Indiana game. After watching the Oklahoma game twice, I have little hope for him. As mentioned before, it’s certainly not all JT’s fault, but his confidence is shot, reminding me a lot of Todd Boeckman’s downward spiral in 2008. If Urban sticks with JT, I will still root my ass off for him and hope I’m wrong.

Colin: Meanwhile, the defense hasn't exactly been kicking ass and taking names either. What do you see on that side of the ball?

Baver: The D-line is still fine, actually better than fine. The back-7 was horrendous Saturday. Losing Raekwon McMillian has hurt way more than I thought it would. Worley looked lost all night against OU, and preseason All-American Jerome Baker looked lost as well. I never saw this coming….not thinking a Greg Schiano defense would get shredded at any point this season. Damon Arnette making huge strides in the offseason? Not. JUCO transfer Kendall Sheffield the next great OSU corner? Far from it, so far. And the safeties appeared to be out of position much of the evening as Baker Mayfield carved up the entire back-7.

Colin: Does anything that happens against Army this weekend matter at all?

Baver: Who knows, maybe JT gets some confidence back, or maybe we get a look at Burrow or Haskins, possibly even in the first half. I loved how Jim Tressel bent over backwards to salute Navy when they came here, but actually playing these service academies is not good for your team. Gotta hope the Bucks avoid injuries facing Army’s blocking schemes, specifically cut blocks. And you have to spend all kinds of time stopping an offense you won’t see again during the season. Urban said they spent time in August preparing for Army, noting that you can’t play that kind of option attack with only one week of preparation. I do think however, that OSU covers the 30-pt spread in similar fashion to how they covered late against Indiana. I look for 4 or 5 second half Buckeye TDs after the Black Knights run out of gas. The call: 48-14 Ohio State.

Colin: What other games and lines will you be keeping an eye on this weekend?

Baver: Give me Tom Herman in the underdog roll every time….as the Longhorns visit USC in the Coliseum. Should be a good game, and I’ll gladly take Texas and the 16 pts there. USC made me pay last week, but I’ll try again. And I will stick with Oklahoma St again this week, laying 13 ½ pts at Pittsburgh. Seems like a lot of points on the road, but I’m still not convinced anyone outside of Alabama can slow down the Ok State offense. And I like Clemson -3 at Louisville, even though they are in a letdown spot after their win over Gus’ Auburn Tigers. Clemson is still loaded and I think will be too much for Lamar Jackson and the Cardinals.

Baver's Bowl Bets, Starting with the Playoff Semi's

A look at the Playoff Semi-Finals from a betting standpoint, and the two best plays on Monday…

Semi-Final 1, The Peach Bowl - The Play: Washington +14. Taking the points against Saban has not been wise this year, as Bama is 9-3 against the spread. And it might surprise you that, while Washington has had their best season in decades, they are only 7-6 ATS this year. Still, I think the two-touchdown spread is a bit high. I liked Washington a lot more when they were getting 16, but I think they will be hungrier than Bama in this one, and will still cover the 14. And Chris Peterson is 6-3 ATS in bowl games as a head coach. My guess is that Washington hangs around long enough to give Bama a scare. Prediction: Alabama 31 Washington 23.

Semi-Final 2, The Fiesta Bowl - The Play: Clemson +2½. Both Urban and Dabo are very tough to beat in bowl games. I give the slightest edge to Urban in winning the game, while the slightest edge goes to Dabo if you are going to spot him 2½ points. As mentioned in the Pencil Storm game preview, Dabo is 5-0 in his last 5 Bowl/Playoff games. On the flip side, Urban’s record against the spread in games when he has had more than a week to prepare for his opponent is insane. Probably better to lay off this one as a bettor, and just sit back and enjoy. Prediction: Ohio State 30 Clemson 28

The Cotton Bowl - The Play: Wisconsin -8.5. The big fear is: “Does Wisconsin want to be here?” It’s their first major bowl game since 2012 and I think Paul Chryst will have team motivated. I think Wisconsin’s front seven will be too much for the ‘Row the Boat’ crew at WMU. And Chryst always has a nice offensive game plan when he has extra time to prepare. The flip side? Heading into New Year’s Eve, Bowl dogs are 24-8 against the spread. Still, I like Bucky here. Prediction: Wisconsin 34-21

The Rose Bowl - The Play: Southern Cal -7. When you have been as hot as Penn State has been, the last thing you want is a long lay-off. I think that’s huge here. Something has to give as, between the two of them, these teams have covered 14 games in a row. The Nits finish games better than any team in the country, but they also find themselves in early holes far too often. I see Penn State again getting themselves in hole, but this time not being able to dig themselves out. USC is the most talented team Penn State has played since Ohio State in mid-October. In the end, the talent difference is too much for the Nits.  Prediction: USC 35 Penn State 24.

Baver Gives His Prediction on OSU vs Clemson

Colin: Ok, before jumping into the Clemson game, where does that loss to OSU rank among the most painful Michigan losses of all time? Are we finally even for the Cooper years? 

Baver: As bad as any. Their players, fans, and head coach will be talking about the first down spot 25 years from now, still needing tissues when they bring up the matter. Have we offset the Cooper years? Not sure, but life is certainly good right now.

Colin: As crazy as this sounds, is there a chance Clemson may over look Ohio State anticipating a rematch with Alabama? They seem sorta cocky. 

Baver: I don’t think so. I think the Clemson coaches will get their players in the right mindset, and convince them that they will not beat Ohio State if they play like they did in several games during the regular season. It will be the same kind of motivation Urban will use to push his guys.  

Colin: What about this match up favors Ohio State? 

Baver: An opportunist Buckeye defense facing a QB that has thrown 15 picks this season. Clemson WR’s are about as good as it gets, but this is the best pass D Deshaun Watson, Mike Williams, and company will face this year. I think OSU will force Watson to have to do more with his legs than he is used to.  

Staying on that side of the ball, Clemson’s conventional running game with Wayne Gallman is going to struggle against a very stout Buckeye run defense. 

Colin: What should Buckeye fans be concerned about? 

Baver: The fact that Clemson is, at a minimum, on the same level as Ohio State. Most Buckeye fans, or all CFB fans for that matter, underestimate Dabo Swinney. Clemson has been a dog in each of their last 5 playoff/bowl games. Their record in those games? 4-1, with the only loss being to Alabama, in last year’s title game, in a game where Clemson had 31 first downs to Bama’s 18. 

From a matchup standpoint, Buckeye fans should be concerned about Deshaun Watson’s ability to make things happen with his legs. The fact that Watson may have to rely more on his legs may not be a good thing for Ohio State.   

And they certainly need to fear Clemson’s three 300-lb+, mobile D-linemen (Lawrence, Watkins and Wilkins). OSU’s pass protection has not been good against the top D-lines they have faced, and likely can’t win this game if Barrett faces constant pressure. 

Colin: In your heart of hearts, do you really feel this Ohio State team is National Championship caliber? 

Baver: I definitely think Bama is on another level compared to Ohio State. The Buckeye offense will have to make huge strides with their passing game to win a national title. But that doesn’t mean Ohio State is incapable of upsetting the Tide should they get their shot…and underestimating Urban Meyer is not wise.

 Colin: Best case?

 Baver: A game similar to the win in Norman, Oklahoma, where Ohio State controls the game from start to finish, winning by 3 TD’s or so. That would include Barrett uncharacteristically being in sync with his WR’s, and having JT actually be accurate. That would also include a major upgrade in the performance of the Buckeye O-line.  

Colin: Worst case? 

Baver: Knock on wood here…. Even if all the usual Buckeye blunders on offense are on display, i.e. OSU’s pass blocking collapsing, Barrett throwing the ball like Bauserman, OSU coaches forgetting that Curtis Samuel is an actual option, etc.)….I still don’t see Clemson beating Ohio State badly. Ohio State isn’t going to go away, no matter how bad they may play at times during the game. Worst case? I’d say Clemson beating Ohio State by 10 to 14 points. 

Colin: Most realistic case and final thoughts… 

Baver: I see a game that will go back and forth and may very well be decided on the last drive of the game. I’ve been hard on JT, but he is still the guy you want behind center when the game is on the line. These two teams have such similar personalities, where they play their best when their backs are against the wall. I give the Buckeyes the slightest of advantages, but I wouldn’t want to lay points in this one. The Call: Ohio State 30 Clemson 28.