Who's Behind Center Against the Badgers? Baver Answers Colin's Questions

Colin: Do the Buckeyes beat Michigan without Haskins subbing in for the injured Barrett?

Baver: Yes, but what a performance by Dwayne Haskins. Everyone always knew that he had a cannon that JT lacked, but who knew Haskins would play with the poise he did in that kind of game. It also helps when the Buckeye coaches suddenly remember that they have big-time tailbacks after JT goes down. So many similarities to 2014, it’s scary.

Colin: Speaking of the QB’s, who plays against the Badgers? JT had surgery Sunday and Urban tells us he will play Saturday? Really?

Baver: I know; I am not buying it either. Arthroscopic knee surgery can be minor, but Urban seems to be begging people to believe that JT will be behind center Saturday night. As of 48 hours before the B10 title game, I am expecting it to be Dwayne Haskins running the show. We shall see; I could be wrong.

Colin: In other news, JT is first team all Big Ten again. Ho-hum. Thoughts on who were honored (or not) by the media and coaches...

Baver: JT deserved it, no doubt. And it appears that about 80 guys from the Badgers were chosen, and most deserved it. I’m told that this is the first year since 1989 that OSU didn’t have an LB selected 1st or 2nd tm. The Bucks didn’t have any LBs picked 3rd tm either. Honestly? No Buckeye ‘backer deserved it. Guess the Bucks are missing Raekwon and former LB coach Luke Fickell more than I thought they would. Current LB coach Bill Davis’ seat is warming.

Colin: Seems like Bucky Badger vs Buckeyes in a dome is a bad match for them but people said the same thing about Sparty versus OSU a couple years back and they pulled the upset. What do you see happening in this game?

Baver: I realize Wisconsin hasn’t played anybody, but all they can do is beat up on the teams they have on their schedule, and that they’ve done. The Badgers lead the nation in multiple defensive stats, and they pound the ball with Jonathan Taylor, behind an O-line where only the center is shorter than 6’6”, with no linemen weighing less than 315 lbs.

If it’s JT behind center, he needs to have some success through the air. If it’s Haskins, he’s going to have to avoid INTs. With Haskins’ big arm, he has no fear of throwing into coverage, and that’s a double-edged sword. Regardless of who the Bucks go with, the OSU coaches have to trust their tailbacks. It’s a crime that they have kept a leash on Dobbins. Wisconsin is not going to make many mistakes and they are going to test the Buckeye linebackers in the short passing game.

I think the Buckeyes are the safer bet (to win), but I think it’s a toss up. I’ve got it Ohio State 31 Wisconsin 27, but little would surprise me in this one. The 5½ pt spread is a bit high, especially if OSU is without JT. I think Ohio State can win or lose this game with either QB.

Colin: Let's say the Buckeyes win the game convincingly; do you, in your heart think this squad deserves a spot in the playoff?

Baver: Not sure it’s fair to look at Ohio St (by themselves) and ask, “Are they deserving?” If Oklahoma and Ohio St win, then I’d probably give the nod to Bama for the 4th slot, despite the Tide’s lack of quality wins, and them not having a conference title. If TCU beats Oklahoma and Ohio St beats Wisconsin, then yes, I think Ohio St would be more deserving than the other school in consideration.

Colin: Related, Alabama has a really weak resume and the SEC has 5 head coaching positions to replace. Is this really the year to have two teams from the same conference?

Baver: Again, I think the real question is….is someone else more deserving? But if the SEC is part of the debate, I see Sagarin has the SEC West as the top division in CFB again this year....like any other year.

Colin: How do you see the major games playing out this weekend and who makes the big dance when the dust settles?

Baver: I think Georgia wins the rematch against Auburn. I see TCU playing much better in their rematch with Oklahoma, but coming up just short. It’s tough to beat good teams twice, so I think OU and Auburn are in for battles. I like Clemson to advance, but like the Canes to cover the 9½. So against the spread, I like the dogs in those title gms. If OSU and OU win, then it’s a toss-up with Ohio St and Bama for the 4th playoff spot. Clemson, Oklahoma, Georgia and Bama are my playoff picks.

Colin: Bonus question: Do you feel four teams is the right amount for the college football playoff or what do you think would be a better system? I'll give my answer: I like four. The regular season really matters which is more than what other sports can say. 

Baver: I am with you; love the 4-team format and the fact that every Saturday means something. I dread the day they expand to 8 teams, and you and I both know that day will come.

Can Cardale Keep the Offense Humming Against the Gophers? Baver Has Your Answers.

Colin: Will Urban go back to running the "Cardale" offense which struggled or maybe incorporate some of JTB's package which seems much better suited for this collection?

Baver: I think you’ll see a mix of an offense tailored toward Cardale and maybe some of what we’ve seen with JTB, save the read option. I hate to dis Cardale….I am rooting for the guy, and the so-called fans that boo him in The ‘Shoe are pathetic. You asked earlier in the year… something along the lines of: is Cardale’s confidence going to hold up to criticism, with fans clamoring for JTB? I said at the time that I thought Cardale’s confidence would be fine, but I don’t think it is right now. I see a guy that has lost a lot of confidence. I hope I am wrong.

Colin: Is Cardale capable of running the read option?

Baver: Not really; it’s not his game, although they still may run it on occasion with Cardale.

Colin: Does Braxton finally throw a forward pass this week?

Baver: My guess is yes. Beck and Urban were probably saving Braxton’s first pass for the Sparty game, but I think they are going to have to utilize Braxton more this week with Barrett being held out.

Colin: Minnesota lit up the vaunted Michigan defense last week. Are the Gophers improving or was it a fluke?

Baver: A little of both. The Jerry Kill retirement added some extra emotion last week. QB Mitch Leidner is going to cause the Buckeye D some problems with his legs. But without David Cobb at TB, the Gopher offense just isn’t the same this year and will have problems moving the ball on Ohio St. On the other side of the ball, Minny’s CB’s (Murray & Lynn) are big time; Cardale needs to be sharp or those guys will make him pay.

Colin: The month of November is shaping up with some epic battles. What three or four games are going to determine who makes the CFP?

Baver: LSU at Bama on Saturday, Sparty at Oh St in 2 wks, Baylor at TCU on Nov 27th, and Notre Dame at Stanford Nov 28th. Those are the 4 biggest gms, but the top four Big 12 teams (Bay, TCU, Okl, Ok St) all play each other in Nov, so it’s gonna be quite the ride in that conference.  

Colin: Give us an update on your picks to date and what games and lines will you be keeping an eye on this weekend?

Baver: 14-6-1 overall against the spread, which includes 6-2 ATS on the Buckeye picks. I think Minniehaha +24 is the play this week; as mentioned above, I think the Buckeye O takes a step back without JT. Hope I am wrong and Cardale lights it up, but I am going to say 31 -13 Ohio State, which means a Minn cover. I like Bama laying the 6 1/2 is against LSU. Fournette, I think, will be (somewhat) held in check and LSU will have problems putting points on the board. Finally, I think you have to take the ‘Noles getting 11 at Clemson. The ‘Noles have had their number and I think they hang tight in this one, no matter who FSU starts at QB. I still think the Tigers win the game, though.

Where Did it Go Wrong for Cardale? Baver Answers Colin's Questions

Colin: Have we witnessed the end of the Cardale era at Ohio State?

Baver: If JTB stays healthy, I think you have indeed seen the end of Cardale, except in mop-up duty. But Barrett hasn’t finished a football season healthy since 2011, his junior year in high school. So, we’ll see.

Colin: Cardale never came close to looking like the same player he was last season. Where did it go wrong?

Baver: The OSU coaches limited Cardale’s choices in the trilogy run and catered the offense to his strengths. After viewing 3 games of film, OSU’s 2015 opponents chose to make Cardale beat them vertically, and he hasn’t been able to do it. They all but eliminated Cardale’s running threat, often using an LB as a QB-spy. Also, there has been no deep threat for OSU now that Devin Smith has moved on. Smith bailed Cardale out on several deep balls last year that helped mask some of Cardale’s deficiencies. And Cardale seemed overwhelmed having to learn much more this year. In fairness, the WR injuries have hurt Cardale’s production big time and the coaches haven’t done him many favors with the offensive schemes this year. Also, the O-line has not protected Cardale like they did in the post-season run last year.

Colin: It appears that the demise of the read option was greatly exaggerated. Is this our bread and butter from here on out?

Baver: Yeah….the Buckeyes are going to ride it going forward. It’s certainly JTB’s bread and butter. This is despite what Urban Meyer has said publicly about the read option.

Colin: If you were Offensive Coordinator, what would be your ideal amount of touches for our top 6 offensive players?

Baver: Zeke 22, JTB (as a runner) 8, M Thomas 6, Braxton 6, Jalin 5, and Samuel 3. This is prior to Sparty coming to town. Against MSU, they will need to get Zeke more touches and JTB will need to run the ball more. But for now, they need to limit the wear and tear on Zeke and JTB. With Braxton, as they learn how to use him, his touches will need to increase.

Colin: Why does Joey Bosa hate Penn State so much?

Baver: The kid is an absolute force. He was probably a bit more dominant against Penn State than other opponents, but Bosa has been almost unblockable in every game he’s played this season. And State Penn will certainly be happy when Bosa goes pro after this season.

Colin: I can't think of anything to ask about Rutgers except, Should they even be in the Big Ten?

Baver: No….but the almighty dollar always rules the day. Shifting to some quick thoughts on the game….Rutgers WR #4 Leonte Carroo is about as good as it gets. He’s only played in 4 games, yet has 9 TD’s. The Bucks will have problems keeping Carroo in check. On the other side of the ball, with JTB now at the helm, Rutgers will have a tough time keeping the Bucks under 45 pts. I like the Bucks to cover the 21….will call it OSU 52 Rutgers 24.

Colin: Can you give us a quick recap of your picks to date and what games and lines will you be watching this week?

Baver: 14-6-1 against the spread, which includes 5-2 ATS in the Ohio St games. Predominantly picking dogs has been a good move so far. While I understand USC being favored at home against undefeated Utah, I think you have to take Utah getting 3 ½; I foresee a tight game. And as bad as Auburn has been, the 6 point spread at Arkansas is too high; I like the Tiger plus the pts. As mentioned above, I’d say lay the 21 with OSU. And to add to the comments above, I think Urban may want to start earning some style points that he didn’t care about early in the season.

Is Urban Crazy or Crazy Like a Fox? Baver Answers Colin's Questions

Colin: It appears Urban it close to settling on a full-blown, completely unconventional QB platoon system. Is Urban crazy or crazy like a fox?

Baver: I think Urban has been a little stubborn with his “Cardale is my guy until he gets beaten out” philosophy, but JTB replacing Cardale in the red zone certainly looks like a step in the right direction. And I think Urban is opening the door for JTB to take the full reins if Cardale falters.

Colin: Obviously at some point all winning streaks must end. I'll assume we agree Michigan would be the worst team to break it. In my opinion Penn State would be the 2nd worst team. Their program is mediocre but their meathead fans have this idea they are still elite. Who would you hate to see break the OSU streak?

Baver: Michigan and a 1,000 foot drop off after that. Twenty years later, the ’95 and ’96 losses by undefeated Ohio State teams to Michigan still hurt. I guess I don’t have a 2nd most hated team, but losing to the SEC is hard to swallow, knowing how much you are going to hear about it nationally.

Colin: If the game were today, how would you feel about a rematch with Alabama?

Baver: Not good. Bama would have added motivation after last year’s game and they are a better team than Ohio State, at least at this point. The Bucks need to prove they can get last year’s hunger back.

Colin: What's up with these running QB's slicing up the defense?

Baver: Another frustrating situation where the Buckeye opponent throws a monkey wrench at them, and the Bucks respond poorly. The monkey wrench this time was surprise starter Perry Hills at QB for Maryland. It was Hills’ improvised runs that did the most damage. The Buckeye LB’s simply didn’t react well on most of his runs. Urban also talked about some of these problems being caused by the OSU DT getting out of alignment.

Colin: Raekwon McMillen is starting to get mentioned as joining the elite crowd as one of the Buckeye's best linebackers. He has the stats to back it up, but I never seem to notice him dominating a game the way Hawk, Shazier or even Darren Lee does. Is he an elite linebacker?

Baver: I think Raekwon is on the verge of being elite. Playing MLB on this team vs. playing on the outside like the other 3 LB’s you mentioned probably doesn’t allow for as many big plays. But I do remember watching a YouTube video of the 2014 OSU defensive highlights, and was surprised at how many times Raekwon showed up in the video, despite being a part-timer. So maybe he is making “quiet” big plays.  : )

Colin: What are your thoughts on UM v MSU and A&M v BAMA and what other games/lines will you be keeping an eye on?

Baver: I think Sparty keeps the game close and finally covers a spread; 7 1/2 pts is a bit high. But I think Michigan probably wins the game; they are definitely for real, but I see a tight, rivalry game here. I think A&M is legit, but Bama is still the best in the SEC. The play here is probably Bama giving the 4 1/2. I see Ohio State waking up now with a marquee matchup at night in the ‘Shoe. I think Braxton shows up big and the Bucks win 38-17, covering for the first time since the opener. The spread is fairly sharp, but I think OSU laying the 18.5 is the play here. No other lines really jump out at me this week. 

Colin: Is Tom Herman the next coach of Southern California? (or is it Chip Kelly?)

Baver: I think Chip Kelly and Kevin Sumlin might be near the top of USC’s list, although if Tom Herman goes 12-0 at Houston, he may get calls from big boys like So Cal. Herman is definitely a rising star and that Houston team was supposed to be rebuilding this year. Someone forgot to tell Herman that.

Baver's College Football Picks and Colin's Questions.

Before we get started you have been hot picking games all year, are there any games/lines this week that really jump out at you?

I liked Georgia laying three to Missou before the Todd Gurley suspension, but scratch that.  I like TCU getting 8 ½ at Baylor.  Baylor’s offense could not get in gear against Texas last week and face a tougher defense this week against TCU.  I think this game will be tight.  Too many points for Florida State, laying 23 ½ on the road at Syracuse; I like the ‘Cuse.  Bad spot for FSU with Notre Dame on deck.  I still think the Noles are the best team in the land if they play to their potential, but they still haven’t put it all together yet.  And I like Alabama (-9) to bounce back and beat Arkansas soundly.  Not a good matchup at all for Arkansas and their power running game – that’s not the way you beat the Tide.

What is your record against the spread so far this year?

I am 9-6 when responding to your weekly “who do you like” question.  I started 2-4, but have hit 7 of the last 9.  On the Buckeye games, I predicted a 17-point win over Cincy (in the middle of game-week, when the Bucks were around a 15-point favorite), but the line closed at 17.  So, if you view that as me predicting a “push” against Cincy, I am 4-0-1 on the Buckeye games.  I correctly had the Bucks covering against Navy, Kent State and Maryland, and had Va Tech covering against the Bucks. 

Ok, the Buckeyes are off again, which blows. Michigan is playing and they blow too, how bad is Penn State to be dogs to the Wolverines this weekend?

Penn State is a shadow of what they used to be; other than Christian Hackenburg, their talent is down. With the sanctions being lightened and with the James Franklin hire, Penn State should start to pick up the pace in the next few years.  Michigan shouldn’t be as bad as they are, but they are reeling, and Brady Hoke hasn’t a clue on how to fix things.  I would probably have Penn State as a slight favorite over Michigan in this game.  I think this one will be tight, like both of these team’s games against Rutgers….which is a sad statement.

After all the upsets last weekend, does a team from the Big Ten have a shot to make the new four team playoff? If you had to predict the final four today, who would it be?

Nationally, I don’t expect to see any team go undefeated in the regular season, and there will be some very good teams that end up with two losses.  If that is the case, Ohio State and Sparty are definitely still alive.  The winner of their November 8th matchup will also need to win the rest of their games, including the Big Ten championship, and look impressive doing so.  I tend to think the Pac 12 and Big Twelve teams beat each other up, making it hard for a school from each conference to make the playoff.  And I think the SEC gets two teams in the playoff regardless.  I will go with Florida State, Georgia, Auburn and Michigan State as the four playoff teams, but with all the parity this year, it wouldn’t surprise me to see none of those teams make it.

Which running back should be more upset: Amir Abdullah being held to just 49 yards against MSU or Melvin Gordon running for over 250 and the Badgers still lose? 

I think I am ticked off more if I am Melvin Gordon, who Wisconsin should have run more.  Not sure why the Badger coaches decided to throw the ball 29 times, with an anemic passing offense and an elite running game; it makes no sense.  I am not all that surprised that the Sparty defense held Abdullah in check; they aimed to make him a non-factor in the game, and that’s exactly what happened.

Let's wrap up with at least one Buckeye question. Which player on offense and defense do you now think is primed for a breakout year that you didn't four games ago?

On offense, it’s a no-brainer for me – JT Barrett.  I have never seen a first-year starting QB at OSU “get it” so quickly.  He lacks arm strength, but you can get away with that at this level…just ask former Heisman winner Danny Wuerfell.  But other than that, Barrett brings everything else to the table.  He’s already about to the point where he is surpassing Braxton Miller as a decision maker…this comparing Barrett the freshman to Miller the junior.  Barrett is doing a beautiful job running the option and for a kid that has played only five games, he is doing an unbelievable job getting through his progressions and finding the “right” receiver.  With Barrett raising his level of play the way he has, the final four is (I think) surprisingly in play for Ohio State. 

On defense, I have nobody – nothing really that wasn’t expected.  I guess if I have to pick someone, I will say Darron Lee, but you are seeing expected growing pains with him.  On the other hand, I think you can see what kind of talent he has, and I think he will be a star before leaving Ohio State.  Lee is a great athlete that is still learning the position…when he does learn it…look out.