Picking the Next Round of NFL Playoffs and Trump Prop Bets - Brian Phillips

Well that Wild Card round was a real dumpster fire eh. Four games, four blow-outs.  I picked all the winners anyway, but that wasn't hard to do. This week for the divisional round I'll throw down a score and make a selection against the spread too. Plus, for some fun, I'll include some Trump prop bets from the UK, where those degenerates will bet on anything. 

(Trump lines courtesy of Paddy Power.)

Saturday January 14

Seattle at Atlanta

4:35PM/Fox

Atlanta -4 1/2

Trump to be impeached within 6 months: 4/1

A classic match up of a great Atlanta offense and the always stout Seattle defense. Back in week 6 the Seahawks held off the Falcons at home 26-24, but Atlanta will point to a late non- pass interference call that cost them a chance at a game winning field goal.

It was a strange game to be sure. The Falcons erased a 17-3 halftime deficit with three third quarter touchdowns to take the lead at one point. On the sidelines they had the Seattle defense screaming at each other. 

This time Atlanta's number one offense gets Seattle at home, and the Seahawks will have to go without injured safety Earl Thomas (out for the season with a broken leg). Running back C.J. Prosise has been upgraded to questionable after missing several weeks. He was huge in wins at New England and home to Philadelphia before getting knocked out against Eagles.

Seattle's terrible offensive line had a good game against Detroit because they could run the ball. If they fall behind and have to throw it's probably over. They literally cannot protect Russell Wilson. 

I'll take Seattle and the points, but Atlanta 28-26
 

Saturday January 14

Houston at New England

8:15pm

CBS

New England -16

Trump paints the White House gold 500 to 1

Vegas can't make this playoff record setting line high enough, and it's not hard to grasp why. If you want to bet against the Pats be my guest, but a lot of people have died on that mountain. Not me. Sure Houston's defense is capable of putting up a decent showing, but once the terrible Brock Osweiler turns the ball over three or four times this baby will turn into a massacre real fast.

Here enjoy this instead. 

I'll give you all of those 16 points and more in taking the Pats.

Patriots 38 Texans 13

Sunday January 15

Green Bay at Dallas

4:40PM

Fox

Dallas -5

Trump says "I'm very rich" during address. 25 to 1

Remember the last time these two met in the playoffs?

Who could forget! Skip Bayless is probably still talking about it. Anyway things are different two years later. The Cowboys have those rookies... Zeke and Dak, and together with that behemoth offensive line Dez Bryant no longer has to do everything. 

I would have picked the Packers here actually as they've looked so good of late, but Jordy Nelson, with his two broken ribs, has been ruled out. 

Brutal man. Yes the rest of the receiving corp has some talent, but are not terribly reliable when you need them most. Green Bay will miss Nelson greatly as they did last season. Meanwhile Dallas fielded the number one defense against the run in 2016 so this is all on Aaron Rodgers.

Want a blueprint for Dallas success Sunday? Look to their regular season tilt at Lambeau this season. Prescott was a tidy 18-27 for 247 yards and three touchdowns and Zeke Elliott rushed 28 times for a 157 yards in a 30-16 victory. That's it, that's the plan.

Green Bay won't turn it over four times as they did that day so I expect this to be a lot closer.

I'll take the Packers and the points, but Dallas 27-24.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City

Sunday January 15

8:20pm

NBC

Kansas City -1

Trump "Golden Shower" footage shows up online: 5/1.

You're not crazy. This game was scheduled for 1pm on Sunday, but the K.C. area is expecting a rather nasty ice storm Sunday To give everyone more time they've moved this one to prime time.

The Chiefs would get more credit here from the bookmakers at home, but the Steelers are a "public team." What that means basically is they have fans all over America and when those bros go to Vegas they get hammered and put their hard earned dough down on their favorite team God damn it! 

The sports books know this. The sharp money meanwhile will flow to the Chiefs. As we get to the weekend more drunk Steelers fans will pour into the casinos... That line will probably move in KC's favor. If I were a gambling man I'd be all over that shit.

The weather is going to be terrible and Big Ben has sucked on the road all year. This has officially become a thing. For whatever reason, he's great at Heinz Field, and almost Brock Osweiler on the road. 

The Chiefs have their own problems. Alex Smith is... Alex Smith. You can only go so far with this guy. KC will try to get things going on the ground with Spencer Ware, and of course a lot of all world tight end Travis Kelce.

For Pittsburgh they have to give the ball to Le'Veon Bell... 30 times at least. That weird hesitation thing he does is really starting to mess my head up. 

I'll take the home team with the sharp guys in lousy weather and a push on the -1.

KC 21 Pittsburgh 20.

Brian Phillips hosts the morning show on CD1025

CD102.5 DJ Brian Phillips Breaks Down the NFL Playoffs.

Brian Phillips hosts the morning show on the legendary independent radio station CD1025 in Columbus, OH. Tune in early and often.

Well there it goes... another NFL season gone into the ether. Last year is already long forgotten. Only two of the six NFC teams in the field were here last year (Seattle and Green Bay). While the AFC is more stable, the defending champion Broncos will not defend their title. Such is life in the NFL. The Patriots are good and the Browns are bad and we'll see about the rest. (Though the 49ers, Jags and Rams were pretty embarrassing too.)

Saturday January 7

4:30 PM  -  Oakland at Houston - ABC

Sadly for Raider nation Oakland goes into their first playoff appearance in 14 years without Derek Carr at the helm. He broke his leg week 15 and Matt McGloin left their season finale with a bum shoulder. Now Oakland turns to Michigan State's Connor Cook. No rookie in the Super Bowl era has been made a first time starter in the playoffs. 

There is good news though for the Raiders. The Texans have their own quarterback problems. Late in the season Houston finally pulled the plug on free agent bust Brock Osweiler for Tom Savage, only to have Savage concussed against Tennessee in their season finale. Because of Osweiler's shortcomings I'm certain Houston would love to run the ball, but Lamar Miller is far from 100 percent. This country is filled end to end with fantasy players who's season was ruined after drafting Texans wideout Deandre Hopkins in the first round. If Osweiler could just throw him the ball where he could catch it.... Probably too much to ask. 

The way forward for Oakland is on the ground as well. If Houston's top ranked defense has a relative weakness, it's against the run. Oakland will have to get something from Latavius Murray in this one. 

This may be close to unwatchable for all moms and wives. 

Houston 13 Oakland 10

8:30 PM - Detroit at Seattle - NBC

For the Seattle Seahawks this has been a weird year. A 9-3 loss in L.A. A 6-6 tie in Arizona. A loss at New Orleans. Falling 14-5 at Tampa Bay. Nearly losing to the hapless 49ers New Year's Day. And despite all that and more Seattle traveled to New England and beat the Pats back in November. They're hard to figure.

Cheers to long suffering Lions fans for getting into the postseason after the Redskins didn't bother to show up against the Giants January 1. With that result Detroit backs in on a three game losing skid. 

Despite their recent struggles, if the Lions can mount any sort of a pass rush Saturday against Seattle's putrid offensive line, they have a chance. The Seahawks couldn't even protect Russell Wilson at San Francisco, nor could they get much of a running game going. Detroit will have to dial up the pressure early and often and look to make big plays on defense. If Seattle's Thomas Rawls struggles to run again it could be another long day. 

For Seattle this game turns on their defense as well. Matthew Stafford needs to be harried and harassed all night. Zach Zenner gave Detroit's punchless running game a bit of teeth the final two games. They'll need some production from him again here.

Home field and that Seattle defense should be enough to get the Seahawks through this round. (The Lions are 0-10 life time in road playoff games). 

Seattle 20 Detroit 13

Sunday January 8th

1:00 PM -  Dolphins @ Steelers - CBS

Can you name the Dolphins starting running back week 1? It was Arien Foster and he's retired now. Against Pittsburgh in week 6 the Dolphins found their running game in Jay Ajayi who abused the Steelers 204 yards. With temps in the lower 20s Sunday and Miami a ten point dog it's a pretty simple formula. Look for Ajayi to get at least 30 carries. Quarterback Matt Moore gets the nod as Ryan Tannehill's balky knee isn't ready. I don't see this as much of an issue. Tannehill isn't that good, and Moore is one of the more capable number twos in the league.

After a week off the Steelers firm of Ben, Brown, and Bell are back. It's not a mystery as to what Pittsburgh wants to do here. Le'Veon Bell will get all the touches he wants as Miami's run defense was near the bottom of the league this year. The big plays will be there in the passing game for Pittsburgh once Bell gets established. I don't see this as much of a contest. 

Pittsburgh 31 Miami 16

4:40pm - New York Giants at Green Bay - Fox

This is the toughest game of the lot to pick, but with the Packers winning six in a row to take another North title it's hard to doubt them. Aaron Rodgers was a cold blooded killer during that run and Jordy Nelson was all world. The mystery is Davante Adams. The kid can play, but has been plagued by a case of the drops. Ty Montgomery gave Green Bay a running threat they had been struggling until late in the season to find, but the Giants have been very stingy against the run (and not terribly giving against the pass for that matter). This game will ride on Aaron Rodgers, which isn't such a bad deal for the Pack. 

Though they found a bit of a ground game of their own late in the year with Paul Perkins (a kid with a ton of potential) the way forward against the Packers is clearly through the air. That will be a huge challenge for the G-Men, especially with temps in the teens at kick off. Only the Texans averaged fewer points per game among the playoff entrants. If the Giants can pull of the upset they'll need Odell Beckham Junior to go off for something like 10/120 and two touchdowns. Eli Manning has been pedestrian all season, but don't sleep on the two time Super Bowl champ in January. 

Green Bay 24 NY Giants 17