What is Ohio State Walking into Saturday Night? Baver Answers Colin's Questions

Colin: Some potent Ohio State offenses have struggled in the hostile Happy Valley environment. You have been there before and are headed there again this weekend. What makes it such a tough place to score points?

Baver:The noise level is insane….parts of the stadium will vibrate at times when the Nits have it goin’. It’s been complete mayhem for the three games I’ve attended there, 2005, 2014 and 2016 - all white-outs. Their fans can be taken out of the game, as any crowd can if their team is getting hammered. But if they are in the game, the PSU fans sustain their loudness for long periods of time. It’s just so hard to stay in rhythm on offense in that environment. I know Ohio St wasn’t prepared for it in ’05, scoring only 10 pts when they had a high-powered offense.

Colin: On Saturday, If Haskins Jr plays as well against Penn State as JT Barrett did last year, will he become the Heisman front runner? 

Baver: Tua’s got a big lead right now and is going to be tough to pass unless Bama gets upset, and that may not even matter. I see he’s favored against the field right now by some sportsbooks, but Dwayne has the 2nd best odds. Haskins has by far the best skillset I have seen in terms of a passer that has played here. But we’ve seen so many good QBs fade here (Schlichter after his sophomore year, Troy’s infamous last game against Florida, & JT’s passing in late ’16 and ’17), so I’m trying not to get too far ahead of myself with Dwayne.

Colin: Can Penn State hope to hold the Buckeyes to under the 39 points they scored last year in Columbus? 

Baver: 39 sounds about right to me for an over/under on Ohio St’s pts scored. But I worry that OSU might not be able to spell Dobbins. I know Urban said Weber will play, but I’m not so sure. With the pace this Buckeye offense is running at, they need both Weber and Dobbins Saturday night in Beaver Stadium. Still, Ohio State has a lot of weapons, and a gunslinger at QB. And I would argue that TCU has a better defense than Penn State’s.

Colin: Conversely, can this Bosa-less defense hold the Lions to under the 38 they scored against the Bucks in 2017?  

Baver: Do you know how many tackles the three starting Buckeye LBs had against Tulane? Zero. Unreal. I have no confidence in this LB crew, so the OSU D-line and DBs have to get it done. Chase Young needs to come up big. And the so-called 50/50 balls that McSorley throws up? Those passes are completed every time I’m watching…which is why anyone calling them 50/50 balls is selling McSorely and his WRs short. 38 pts by the Nits Saturday? That’s another number that again sounds about right to me. 

Colin: Nationally, where do you think the OSU v PSU game fits among much watch college rivalries? 

Baver: It’s not there yet, but as long as Urban and James Franklin hang around, this game is going to huge, and the rivalry is going grow big time.

Colin: Final thoughts and prediction? 

Baver: I’ll give the slightest advantage to Ohio State here, as they have fewer personnel questions and better depth. But many of OSU advantages are somewhat offset by the edge Penn State gains in playing Ohio State at night in Beaver Stadium in a white-out. Dwayne hasn’t showed any signs of getting in a funk on the big stage, but this will be unlike anything he has played in. I tend to think he will again hold up well as long as the pass protection is at least adequate. I do worry about Miles Sanders and KJ Hamler possibly both coming up big Saturday night for the Penn State offense (and Hamler as on returns). Hamler is 170 pounds soaking wet, but the kid is electric.

The last two gms have decided by a total of 4 pts and the ’14 gm there went double-OT. I tend to think it will be another one of those games. 

Prediction: Ohio State 42 Penn State 40.

Colin: Know you are traveling but any other games you will be checking in on this weekend? 

Baver: The spread is higher than I thought it would be with Notre Dame currently a 5½ pt favorite over Stanford. But the timing of this game really gives the Irish a big advantage. I think Notre Dame has been waiting on Stanford, while the Cardinal had that emotional comeback win in Eugene last Saturday night. I don’t think they will have much left in the tank, and really like Notre Dame at home in this spot. And I really like the move to Ian Book at QB.

I’ll leave it at that, other than picking OSU to win, but not covering in a very tight game. And we’re going to see a lot of fireworks Saturday night. Can’t wait.

Can Gary Patterson and TCU's defense slow down Ohio State's offense? - Baver answers Colin's questions

You can hear Baver every Friday at 7:40 am on CD1025 with Brian Phillips. Follow @baverbuckeyebag

Colin: Ok, everyone is losing their minds over this Buckeye offense but I suppose it’s worth noting that OSU beat Rutgers 58-0 and 56-0 the past two years with JT Barrett putting up huge passing numbers as well. So technically 2018 is a step backwards. Are we getting ahead of ourselves or is this offense destined for greatness? 

Baver: The upside of this Buckeye offense is the highest it’s been since Urban’s arrival.  But yeah, Rutgers is not good, and Oregon St’s defense is as bad as it gets. We will know a lot more around 11:30 pm Saturday night. 

Colin: Could we lose Haskins to the NFL after one season? 

Baver: Yes…and Haskins is currently running either 3rdor 4thin the Heisman odds, depending on the sportsbook. I see Todd McShay is already talking about Haskins NFL upside. And if Dwayne has a big game Saturday night, then you will hear a lot more talk about Haskins bolting after this season. Still, there isn’t much of a sample size right now in terms of Haskins’ performances against good competition. He played less than a half against Michigan last year - that’s it. Again, we will know more after Saturday.

Colin: What does TCU have to do to slow down the Buckeye attack and are they capable of doing it? 

Baver: Phil Steele has each of TCU’s three units on defense (DL, LBs & DBs) as the top units in the B12. Now, the B12 isn’t known for playing much D, so let’s not mistake this for Alabama’s defense. But if there is one coach that is capable of getting a high-powered tempo offense in a funk, it’s Gary Patterson. TCU’s 4-2-5 defense doesn’t have to substitute much to match up with the personnel on opposing offenses. And tempo offenses often feel a need to slow down to study the Horn Frogs’ alignment. But TCU is going to have to apply consistent pressure on Haskins and force some critical mistakes, otherwise I can’t see them winning this game.  

Colin: The defense faces its first test this weekend against TCU. Are they prepared to stop a top flight mobile QB in Shawn Robinson? 

Baver: I re-watched the Rutgers game focusing on the linebackers, and although the defense played much better than they did a week prior, the LB play is just plain bad in terms of what we are used to seeing in Columbus. Like Oklahoma and Iowa last year, I think TCU will try to expose the Buckeye LBs with the short passing game. Luckily, TCU doesn’t throw to the TE much, so that part of the nightmare from last year’s Iowa game shouldn’t reoccur. I think Robinson will make some plays with his legs, and the WR combo of Kavontae Turpin & Jalen Reagor (4.32 speed) will hit a few big plays. But the OSU D-line will force Robinson into making some key mistakes. Nick Bosa is possessed right now, and it’s like nothing I have seen before out of an OSU DE, and we’ve had some good ones. 

Colin: Forgot a Ted Ginn style punt return, can we just fair catch the ball without it hitting the turf? What gives? 

Baver: After McCall misplayed the first one, you’d have thought that he would have made damn sure he caught the 2nd one cleanly. Nope. Ohio State has too much talent on this team to give McCall many more shots. Yeah, I am too the point where I just want the punt fielded cleanly and let the offense put the ball in the end zone. 

Colin: Final thoughts and prediction? 

Baver: I am going to guess Urban Meyer has spent the better part of the last three weeks scouting TCU’s defense. I think even with a first-year starter at QB, Meyer and Ryan Day will have this offense well prepared for the TCU defense. I do worry you will see some chinks in the armor with the OSU O-line, but Haskins, the tailbacks, and the WRs should be too much for the TCU D. On the other side of the ball, as mentioned, the Bucks will surrender some big plays and some points, but the Buckeye D-line will cause too many problems for TCU and Shawn Robinson. Prediction: Ohio State 42 TCU 24, and I’d feel comfortable laying the 13 pts here.

Colin: What other games and lines will you be keeping an eye on this weekend? 

Baver: I think Joe Burrow is now settling in and I see LSU hanging tough with Auburn. So getting 10 pts looks like a solid play to me. Of course, LSU is coached by Ed Orgeron, so I make look foolish here. I tend to think Boise St gets it done at Ok State, so I like the Smurfs catching 2 pts there. Best Boise team in a while. And I think the Bama train keeps rolling and covers the 21½ at Ole Miss. Bama usually wins Nat’l Titles with an average QB, and Tua is far better than average.

Is this Buckeye D-line the best yet? - Baver Answers Colin's Questions

Colin: Do you think the offensive play calling would have been the same with Urban on the sideline? 

Baver: You would have seen more designed runs with Haskins, and the pace would have been slower with the play calls ultimately going through Urban. Maybe Meyer will learn a bit from watching things from afar, and allow Day and Wilson to manage the play calling a bit more going forward. On the flip side, I wonder if Schiano took more chances with his aggressive scheme while Urban was watching at home. I tend to think both teams would have scored less had Urban been calling the shots.

Colin: What else on offense jumped out at you? 

Baver: Mike Weber….what strides this kid has made under RB coach Tony Alford, and probably from watching a lot of film. He’s mainly a north/south runner, but on the one play in the 2ndhalf where the middle was congested on 3rd& 1, he made a quick decision to step back and cut outside picking up the first. I’m sure NFL scouts took notice.

What else can be said about Haskins? So comfortable, gets rid of the ball so quickly, adjusts the touch he puts on the ball when he needs to, hits receivers in stride, etc. The kid’s upside is crazy, but it of course won’t be that easy against a good D. 

Colin: I was at the game and Bosa and C Young were literally racing each other to sack the QB on most plays. We have had some great lines but could this one be special or will the relative lack of depth be a problem in tough games? 

Baver: If Dre’Mont, Bosa and Young stay healthy, this line may indeed go down as the best OSU has ever had. The LT for Oregon St, Blake Brandel, is actually one of the better tackles in the Pac-12, and the dude got abused by Bosa. Dre’Mont has done some work since we last saw him, and his athleticism was on full display against the Beavers. Chase Young? He may have had some mental mistakes, but he couldn’t be blocked either. Tyquan Lewis and Sam Hubbard were very good but Bosa and Young are at another level. There are depth concerns at DE, but this team has a pretty deep set of DTs.

Colin: But...the defense got gashed for HUGE plays multiple times. Should we be worried? What gives? 

Baver: You had a combination of inexperienced guys out of position, an extremely aggressive Greg Schiano defense, and they pulled Bosa and Dre’Mont at halftime. In fact, the four best OSU defenders, Bosa, Dre’Mont, Borland, and Fuller were not on the field when Artavis Pierce had his two long runs. 

Still, the expectations are a lot higher than what we saw out of the OSU D this past Saturday. I don’t think the LBs are going to be ready for the big time anytime soon, and the safety play was horrific. The good thing is, if the D-line starters stay healthy, the coaches can devote so much extra time to the back-7. They of course have 4 and 5-star guys to work with, so it may be a night and day difference come November.

Colin: Let’s skip Rutgers talk and look around the rest of the Big Ten, especially the vaunted East division. What were your take always from week one? 

Baver: You would have thought Michigan would have been fired up and ready to break a 3-game losing streak with a lineup that’s playoff caliber. Not. And the defense that many have raved about (myself included) has not fared well against high-caliber offenses. Michigan is underachieving like nobody’s business. 

Sparty? Slow starts are par for the course for them early in the season, but one has to wonder if they have the talent to challenge in the east. Penn State? I think it’s going to take a while for this team to adjust with all the guys they lost. Wisconsin? Hornibrook looked poor again throwing the ball. That would be concerning to me if I were a cheese head. But that’s still a top-10 Badger team in my opinion.

Colin: What other games and lines will you be keeping an eye on this weekend? 

Baver: I’ve got Ohio State covering the 35 this week; I’m calling OSU 56-17. That would mirror the 2014 score, which is the closest RU has come to Ohio St since joining the Big Ten. 

In the other big ones, I like the favorites for a change. That would be Georgia laying the 10 at South Carolina, Clemson laying the 12 at A&M, and Stanford at home laying 6 against USC. Too much of a talent gap I think in the each of first two gms I mentioned, and I tend to think So Cal true freshman JT Daniels is going to get a rude awakening in Stanford Stadium.