Does Sparty Spoil OSU Again? Baver Answers Colin's Questions

Colin: Let's start with the million-dollar question, if the Buckeyes win out, no matter how they do it, will they make the playoff?

Baver: In all likelihood….yes. ESPN’s FPI ratings and corresponding probability factors give Ohio State only a 9% chance of winning the Big Ten. Yet, the sportsbooks now have OSU’s chances to win the Nat’l Title at anywhere from 2-1 to 3-1, second only to Bama, while those two teams have significantly better odds to win it all than any other team. And Fivethirtyeight calculates OSU chances of making the playoff at 54%. What’s that tell you? It tells you that those factoring the odds/probabilities fully expect the Committee to select an 11-1 Ohio State team in their final Top 4 rating, even without playing in the B1G title game.

But never say never….the books that took action on the presidential election had it more lopsided than the polls did….and of course the polls, the books, and the stock market traders were all dead wrong.

Colin: How shocked were you that Michigan lost? I missed most of it. What happened? They came in on a roll.

Baver: It doesn’t surprise me that the game was close, but I figured that Michigan would force their will on Iowa if the game were tight in the 4th quarter. Michigan had left their state only once prior to last Saturday, playing a horrendous Rutgers team in Piscataway. Kinnick Stadium can be a tough place to play, and mediocre Ferentz-led Iowa teams can still be pesky. Michigan’s downfall? What some thought was the best defense in the country couldn’t contain Akrum Wadley, who had 167 combined yds from scrimmage. And the Iowa defense that got shredded by Saquon Barkley and PSU held the UM rushing attack under 100 net yards.

Colin: Along those lines, this is going to make me sound like a drooling Dispatch mailbox hater, but I wasn't completely impressed with OSU against Maryland. Yes, we did win 62-3, but the passing game still seemed like it needed an extra second to develop. That extra second disappears against better defenses. Are you convinced this passing game has turned the corner?

Baver: It’s turned “a” corner, but not sure it’s turned “thee” corner. Barrett is simply not throwing the ball like he once did. Now, he does just about everything else well, but accuracy is definitely a problem. I do like KJ Hill and Binjimen Victor, and the progress they are making. And the O-line has raised their collective game since the Penn State debacle; that has definitely helping the Buckeye aerial attack.

Colin: Are the Silver Bullets getting the respect they deserve on D?

Baver: No. More on that in a second.

Colin: Ending the season again with MSU and Michigan blows. No matter what their record, I just can't believe Sparty and company won't play way over their heads on Senior Day. Your thoughts?

Baver: I’m concerned…that’s for sure. I think MSU will indeed play one of their better games of the year, but the way Schiano has this defense playing, I find it hard to see Sparty putting many points on the board. And Urban should have his guys in the right mind frame after last year’s devastating loss. I’ll pass on making a score prediction with potential bad weather in store for Saturday in East Lansing, but I see a low scoring game with the Bucks winning by a couple TD’s. If the weather is horrible, then it might be tighter.

Colin: Does the noon kick help or hurt the Buckeyes?

Baver: This will be Sparty’s fifth straight noon kick, and the Bucks haven’t had a noon kick since October 1st. I think that answers your question.

Colin: What other games and lines will you be keeping an eye on this week and give us an update on your picks to date?

Baver: 7-3 against the spread on OSU, hitting 7 of the last 8…I’ve had a good pulse on the Buckeyes from a Vegas standpoint for the 3rd straight year. But I still can’t break out of the slump with non-Buckeye games….I’m 15-18-1 ATS overall, which includes the OSU games. I mentioned a two-TD game or maybe less, so while I think Urban and his boys get revenge on Sparty, I think MSU plus the 22 is the play there. I really like West Virginia getting points (3 ½) at home vs Oklahoma, as the ‘Eers have finally made a believer out of me. I also like a rejuvenated Stanford team laying 11 at Cal. And I think 13 ½ isn’t enough pts in the Maryland-Nebraska game; I like the Huskers to cover in Lincoln.

Why Can't OSU Pass Downfield Anymore? Baver Ponders the Question.

Colin: Nobody seems to have an answer for the lack of downfield passing. Do you have a theory? Who is to blame? Who needs to step up?  Can it be fixed in time to win the Big Ten?

Baver: At this point, I think it’s three things: (1) Receivers struggle to get open, and WR coach Zach Smith’s days may be numbered here; (2) When receivers do get open, JT at times doesn’t find them or misfires; and (3) The offense is out of sync…the timing just isn’t there. Can it be fixed? Well, it can improve, and I think it will. And yeah, the Bucks can still win the Big Ten.

Colin: Is it me, or did we go from being a "tempo" team to a group that barely gets the ball snapped before the play clock hits zero? Is this by design?

Baver: The tempo has definitely slowed down, and this ties back to the offensive timing being off. They had to slow things down, partly because of this. And it also seems like there have been more audibles called this year, as defenses seem to have scouted Ohio State pretty well. Obviously it takes additional time when JT has to audible. And as the tempo has slowed, so has Ohio State’s success on offense.

Colin: Northwestern played a lot of pitch and catch with one good QB and one good WR. They sure made it look simple. Are our coaches over thinking this? And could that Northwestern QB play on Sundays?

Baver: This is sad to say, but Ohio State does not have a WR that measures up with NW’s Austin Carr, a former walk-on. Think about that for a second. And JT can’t throw the ball like Clayton Thorson, who will indeed play on Sundays. He had a very rough true-freshman year last season, but the NFL scouts still had him rated high before his sophomore season even began.

Colin: I feel like the D has played pretty well all things considered. Do you feel like they have held up their end of the bargain?

Baver: They are playing better than the offense is right now….but I am surprised at the some of the long drives they give up, seemingly out of nowhere, when they are playing well up to that point in the game.

Colin: Our tough schedule only gets tougher from here on out starting with Nebraska this Saturday night, what are some advantages/ disadvantages of this match up?

Baver: Ohio State should have success running the ball against the Huskers, but will likely have problems throwing the ball against the NU secondary, the strength of their defense. On the other side of the ball, Tommy Armstrong has a habit of imploding in big games. I tend to think the Buckeye D-line will have their best game of the year in this prime-time game, against a top-ten team in the ‘Shoe, against a banged up Nebraska O-line.

Colin: The Big Ten just announced we are going to start playing some Friday night games. Boy, that sure seems unfair to all the Ohio High School football fans that are the life blood of the OSU program. What do you think of this move?

Baver: It’s pathetic. Ohio State should never be playing on a Friday night. Michigan balked at it, so why didn’t Gene Smith do the same? He is such a sellout. I hope there is major pushback from Urban.

Colin: Give us an update on your picks and what games/lines will you be keeping an eye on this weekend?

Baver: Can’t hit much right now except Ohio State games, where I’ve hit 5 of the last 6 against the spread. I’m 12-16 on the year overall ATS. I correctly called Penn State and N’Western both covering against Ohio State, but I like Ohio State to snap back in a big way this week. Urban is downplaying it publicly, but I think he is all over these guys behind closed doors. Look for the Bucks to cover the 17 and roll Nebraska; I like Ohio State 38-17. Florida State is in a tough situational spot traveling to NC State after the thriller against Clemson, but I think Vegas has over-adjusted for that making the Noles only a 5 ½ pt favorite. Take the Noles and lay the points. And I think A&M’s is laying too many (13) at Miss. St. I like the Bulldogs and the points, and an upset wouldn’t surprise me.

Baver Gives Odds on Which Buckeyes Stay and Go + Penn State Thoughts.

Colin: The youngest team in the country has already had two road night wins against highly ranked opponents. How impressed should we be? 

Baver: I think you really have to be impressed with the heart that this young team showed in the 2nd half and OT on a night when Ohio State clearly didn’t have its best stuff in Madison. It was Wisconsin’s night…and Ohio State took it from them. As for the way the Bucks jumped on Oklahoma from the get-go and never looked back, that was certainly impressive too. Young teams aren’t supposed to do this.

Colin: Bucky Badger took advantage of their bye week and really seemed to have our young D confused in the 1st half. What was working for them and should we expect Penn State to try something similar?

Baver: The jet sweep, that’s for sure. The Buckeye corners seemed to react slowly to the play, even after Wisconsin had run it several times. One tweet I saw summed it up: “Jazz Peavy jet sweep, rinse, repeat.” Peavy ran 6 jet sweeps for 70 yards. It wasn’t until the 5th time the Badgers ran it that Ohio State stopped it for shorter than an 8-yard gain. Wisconsin also hit their TE Troy Fumagalli 7 times for 80+ yards in total. Thankfully, Penn State has no one to run the jet sweep like Peavy and PSU’s TE Mike Gesicki has modest numbers so far this season.   

Colin: At any point in the game did you think we were going to lose? 

Baver: Yes…at halftime, I thought we were probably staring at a loss. And when Wisconsin had the 11-play, 81-yard drive to take back the lead in the middle of the fourth quarter, I had my doubts.

Colin: Other than JT having ice water in his veins, our offense still seems to struggle with an identity. What is our offensive identity? 

Baver: I agree. For the most part, the read option is still Ohio State’s identity, and JT runs it very well. But, as everyone has been saying….at some point, this offense is going to have to throw the ball down field. And I wouldn’t expect to see much down field passing in Happy Valley with the forecast calling for ridiculous winds.

Colin: Penn State took our 2014 National Championship team to OT last trip to Happy Valley. Could we be forgetting how tough it is to play there at night? 

Baver: I think the Bucks got a pretty good wakeup call at Camp Randall, not to mention the wakeup call they got in Happy Valley in 2014. So, no…I don’t think so.

Colin: You are heading to the game. What is your favorite and least favorite thing about attending a game at Happy Valley? 

Baver: How ‘bout just some good and some bad?

Even though that program has been down, the atmosphere in that stadium is big time. The white out, the noise level, the intensity….the place rocks. In 2014, when PSU had the pick-6 early in the 2nd half that turned the game around, the place was insane….and it was insane/crazy until the final play when Bosa blew up the PSU O-lineman and Christian Hackenberg simultaneously. It’s what college football is all about.

On the flip side, while we were treated very well in State College by almost all of the Penn State fans in 2014…2005 was brutal. Ohio State was of course a few years removed from a Nat’L Title and a group of kids were relentless in harassing us all day long. One climbed up on a Buckeye fan’s RV trying to tear down his Buckeye flag. That was also the year the OSU band had bags full of urine thrown at them. It was pretty hardcore.  

Colin: I know it still feels like the season has only started, but are there any rumblings about Buckeyes who might already be thinking about playing in the NFL next year? 

Baver: Word on the street is that everyone that you think might consider leaving early is considering leaving early….and everyone that you wouldn’t think could make the early jump is considering making the early jump. My best guess at handicapping the OSU underclassmen that are draft eligible, based on what I am hearing…

Likelihood of leaving after the season:

Malik Hooker: 75% (draft eligible sophomore)

Raekwon McMillan: 60%

Marshon Lattimore: 50% (draft eligible sophomore)

Gareon Conley: 50%

JT Barrett: 40%

Curtis Samuel: 35%

Sam Hubbard: 35% (draft eligible sophomore)

Jamarco Jones: 25%

Billy Price: 15%

Tyquan Lewis: 15%

Noah Brown: 15%

Chris Worley: 10%

Michael Hill: 10%

Marcus Baugh: 10%

Colin: Give us an update on your picks so far and other games you will be keeping an eye on this weekend?

Baver: 10-12 against the spread. I saw that the great Phil Steele went 0-9 against the spread last week…so I am feeling a little better about my numbers. Too many points in Happy Valley. The Nits have a bye and the Bucks are of course off the emotional/physical game at Camp Randall. I like the Bucks 28-14, and the Nits +19 ½ is a good play. I like TCU catching 6 on the road at West by God. The ‘Eers luck finally runs out against a more talented TCU team that will thrive on the underdog role. And, okay, I’ll bite…I like the Aggies getting 18 at Alabama. Bama is the best team in the land and if they play their game, they will smack A&M….but Bama is prime for a letdown, and 18 is a lot of points.

Will Buckeyes Again Make Bucky Badger Their B---- ? Baver Answers Colin's Questions

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Colin: For a team that constantly brags about how much depth and talent they have on offense, why does JT have to carry such a heavy workload against an underdog as Indiana?

Baver: I think it’s an Urban thing (as opposed to Warriner or Beck). It’s been this way since Urban arrived. And there have been a handful of post-games where Urban basically admitted that they ran the QB too much, and didn’t run the tailback enough. Seems like the common themes in these games are: (1) The game is in doubt or closer than it should be, and (2) Urban’s QB isn’t throwing the ball well. Those were certainly the themes against Indiana. But one would have thought they would have gotten Curtis Samuel involved more….it’s big mystery why they didn’t.

Colin: Along the same lines, Indiana used a lot of press coverage and disrespected our WRs ability to beat them one on one. Could this formula work again this week against the Badgers?

Baver: Yeah, I don’t think Wisconsin is going to respect Ohio State’s X and Y receivers…and there’s really no reason to right now. It seems like Noah Brown can’t stay healthy and doesn’t have the speed to beat a DB down field, maybe because of the injuries. The Buckeyes are going to have to have at least some success throwing downfield Saturday night, or they could be in trouble.

Colin: Still, our young D is looking surprisingly strong, how many points can Wisconsin expect to put up on the Bucks without fluky conditions or turnovers?

Baver: If weather plays little to no factor in the game, I would think the Buckeyes hold Wisconsin to 21 or less. Looking at the Vegas spread and over/under, the sportsbooks have the Badgers scoring about 17 pts….sounds ballpark to me. The emergence of Jerome Baker and Nick Bosa is starting to make this Buckeye defense downright scary, and Wisconsin’s offense is anything but scary.

Colin: Camp Randall at night is a bitch. As nice as the Sooners win was, this is a different beast. Especially considering the last time we met, the Bucks won the Big 10 title 59-0 despite entering as underdogs. AND..ESPN Game day is in Madison and all that hype. So on a scale of 1 -10, how tough of a road environment is Camp Randall?

Baver: I’d say 9 ½ outta 10. It’s right up there with Clemson Memorial Stadium and Tiger Stadium (LSU)….maybe a hair behind those two. In terms of the NFL, I’d say Camp Randall is on par with Lambeau Field and CenturyLink Field in Seattle. I don’t think this Buckeye team rattles easily, but if there is a place where that can happen….it’s Camp Randall.

Colin: So final thoughts on the game?

Baver: I’ve stopped doubting Urban period. When you dive into the matchup, i.e. OSU’s run game vs Wisc run D, vice versa, etc…..I think it’s easy to come away thinking this game is a toss-up. But I think 80% of the big plays Saturday night will be made by the scarlet and gray….just too much athleticism on the OSU side. And I don’t think many fans realize what a weapon Cameron Johnson has become, and how much “flipping the field” works in the Buckeye’s favor. I see Ohio State rising to the occasion….I like the Bucks 34-17.

Colin: What other games and lines will you be watching this weekend?

Baver: I’ve made a nice little comeback, hitting 5 of my last 6 to bring me to 9-10 on the season ATS, including hitting the last 3 Buckeye games. With the Madison weather forecast looking not-so-bad as of Thursday night, I think you take the Buckeyes and lay the 10 ½. I think Tennessee may fall apart this week after finally losing a close game…I like Bama laying the 12 ½ in Knoxville. And I like Texas Tech catching a point at home against West Virginia. I think Tech will have added motivation facing a 4-0 Mountaineer team.

Is Indiana a Trap Game for OSU? Baver Answers

Colin: Anything noteworthy about the destruction of Rutgers or just business as usual?

Baver: Not much to report….almost flawless domination after the first 5 minutes of the game. Schiano knows how to make the right adjustments rather quickly. Rutgers is horrible, but it’s still pretty amazing how dominant this Buckeye team has been this early on with all the talent lost from last year’s squad.

Colin: Is anybody going to be able to touch JT Barrett's records when he is all finished at OSU?

Baver: If Barrett stays healthy and comes back for ’17, his career records are going to be ridiculous. Hell, they’ll be ridiculous without a 4th year. But, as long as Urban Meyer is here, and as long as the rules don’t change to slow down tempo offenses, I’d say no Ohio State offensive records are safe.

Colin: The Big 12 plays ZERO defense and Oklahoma gave up 49 points last week to TCU. Does this take some luster off of our win? 

Baver: I think’s a win’s a win…and that one was against a Top 25 team on the road. Let’s just hope Oklahoma doesn’t screw around and lose to a very bad Texas team again.  

Colin: On to this week's game. Indiana gave us fits last year, is coming off a win over Sparty and the Bucks have a huge road game at Wisconsin next week. Isn't this the textbook recipe for a trap game?

Baver: Yep…and the Buckeyes are overdue to show some chinks in the armor….every team does at some point, even Bama. I don’t think this one goes down to the wire like last year, but I tend to think Indiana hangs around awhile like they normally do against Ohio State.

Colin: As talented as this team is, history shows that going undefeated is extremely rare and young teams do have let downs. What remaining games are you most concerned about? 

Baver: Wisconsin and Michigan. I’m afraid many of the players may think they can just waltz into Camp Randall and hammer Wisconsin at night like they did Oklahoma on the road. Maybe that will happen, but that place is going to be a lot crazier than Norman was, and Urban now has to keeps egos in check. The Michigan game will be tighter this year, I believe. I think Ohio State hammers Sparty in East Lansing.

Colin: Nationally, which teams are the best and/or worst match up should the Bucks make the playoff?

Baver: Alabama has had their fair share of problems against mobile QBs in the past, so JT Barrett could cause them some problems. On the flip side, I think Bama’s power/run game could be a problem for OSU. I’d much rather play a team that leans on an air attack over the run, as I think the Buckeye pass D is second to none. But overall, I think this Buckeye team is diverse, and when you give Meyer extra time to prepare, I think this team matches up favorably against anyone.

Colin: Give us an update on your picks to date and what games/lines will you be keeping an eye on this weekend?

Baver: Got 2 out of 3 last week to bring my stellar record on the year to 6-10; how ‘bout that? I like Ohio State 35-14, pulling away in the 2nd half. So Indiana plus the 29 is probably the wise play. Rutgers is in for their 2nd beatdown in as many games, and maybe another shutout. Take Michigan laying the 29 ½ at Rutgers. Brady Hoke has not been the answer as Oregon’s new DC, as Oregon’s D still can’t stop anybody. Washington takes a hammer to Oregon in Eugene…take the Huskies and lay the 9 there.

I Can't Think of Anything to Ask About Rutgers? Baver Answers Anyway

Colin: How much time do you think Urban spent preparing for Rutgers on bye week? Do you think they are already looking ahead to tougher match-ups?

Brent: He probably spent more time than you would think preparing for Rutgers. Urban is now 38-10 against the spread when he has more than 7 days to prepare for an opponent. So, during bye weeks, Urban has to have some real focus on his upcoming opponents no matter how bad they are. But, I am sure there was some time spent planning for Wisconsin, Sparty, and Michigan, as well.

Colin: I really can't think of anything to ask about Rutgers. Is there anything we should be concerned about?

Brent: They’re #1 playmaker (basically their only playmaker) on offense and special teams, Janarion Grant, just went down for the year with an ankle injury. And one of their better defensive players, rush end Quanzell Lambert was also just lost for the season. I don’t know how this Rutgers team was going to compete if these guys were healthy. Their best hope is Meyer having mercy on his former defensive coordinator Chris Ash.

Colin: Notre Dame loses at home to Duke and LSU fires Les Miles? How big of trouble are those programs in?

Brent: Duke has been solid the last 5 years or so, but had looked horrible this season prior to the Notre Dame game. Losing to Duke on your home field is a disgrace. They are probably looking at a 5+ loss season.

LSU may be looking at a 5+ loss season as well, still having to face Florida, Ole Miss, Bama, Arkansas and A&M. We’ll see if Ed Orgeron can get more out of their talent than Miles did.

Colin: How good are Wisconsin and Michigan?

Brent: Wisconsin is definitely a top-25, maybe a top-15 team, but the final score against Sparty doesn’t tell the whole story. Two turnovers translated directly into two of Wisconsin’s TD’s. But I am a bit concerned about the Buckeye’s night game in Madison; that place will be insane.

Michigan is the real deal. Speight is looking good, and their defense is top-notch. Brady Hoke offenses didn’t score more than 34 points in any of his last 11 games at Michigan, and Harbaugh offenses have scored 45+ in all four games this year.

Colin: How bad are Iowa and MSU?

Brent: Iowa looks like their reverting back to being Iowa, with last year’s 12-0 regular season looking like a mirage. They are mediocre at best. Michigan State, as mentioned above, isn’t as bad as the score indicated against Wisconsin. But….this isn’t one of Sparty’s better teams, I don’t think.

Colin: Earle Bruce is dotting the I this Saturday at the shoe. An honor well deserved but how good of a coach was Earle compared to his Buckeye contemporaries?

Brent: I wasn’t a huge fan of Earle as a coach, but have become a much bigger fan of his with the loyalty he has shown Ohio State. But as a coach, he didn’t recruit well and really left the program in bad shape for John Cooper. I would probably put him at the bottom of the list of coaches that have been here in my lifetime, behind Woody, Coop, Tress and Urban.

Colin: Give us an update on your picks so far and what games and lines will you be watching this week?

Brent: Awful…4-9 ATS. Had a feeling the luck may be running out after being well over .500 picking games ATS here each of the last two years. I think you take Ohio State laying the 38 ½. The game is a mismatch, and with Janarion Grant out, Rutgers may get shut out. I like the Bucks 48-7. You have to take Clemson at home, I think, getting the 2 points against Louisville. Tough to get in front of the L’Ville freight train right now, but Clemson has to feel very disrespected getting points at home. I had Louisville as a playoff-team a week ago, but now lean Clemson as the ACC’s playoff team. And I think things fall apart for Wisconsin this week, with their 2nd straight big road game. Take Michigan laying the 10 ½ against the Badgers.