OSU wins over UM - Some Favorites; The Poaching of UM Asst's; The Playoff Picture ....Colin-Baver Q&A: THE GAME week (Part 2 of 2)

Click here for Swear Free Dead Schembechler Spotify Playlist

Colin: We have had so many sweet wins against Michigan since 2000. What are your personal top five favorites?

Baver: I’ll go ahead and exclude the 2002 win that sent OSU to the Nat’l Title Game and the 2006 battle between undefeated #1 vs undefeated #2....those two are too easy. Of the rest of the Buckeye wins, I took the most enjoyment from these...(listed pretty much in ascending order)

Ohio St 37 Michigan 21 (2004) – You want to talk about a “1-game season”....ask a Buckeye fan what they remember about the 2004 season, and you might get, “Isn’t that the year Ted Ginn had the punt return down the Michigan sideline for a touchdown?” Another fan might say, “That was the year Troy Smith had his coming out party against Michigan.” I think those two things come to mind first, as opposed to Ohio State having 3-consecutive losses at one point that year, on the way to a 4-loss season. This game trumped the 4 losses.

Ohio St 25 Michigan 21 (2005) – With 7:49 remaining, UM kicked a field goal to go up 21-12....this after Ohio State had dominated early on, leading 9-0 in the 2nd quarter. I was sick to my stomach. I had watched the game at the Worthington Legion, and a friend of mine was so disgusted that he left at that point to leave early for a hunting trip. A little over a minute later, Troy hit Santonio Holmes for a TD. Not long after came the Gonzo Catch, and that set up the Antonio Pittman’s game-winning TD. 

Ohio St 26 Michigan 20 (2001) – In games I attended in Ann Arbor, Ohio St was 0-3 in prior to this one. This game backed up the comment Jim Tressel made the day he was hired (Jan 18, 2001), “I assure you that you will be proud of our young people, in the classroom, in the community, and most-especially in 310 days in Ann Arbor, Michigan, on the football field.” I ended up getting food poisoning having to stop on the way home several times to throw up. It was well worth it.

Ohio St 62 Michigan 39 (2018) – OSU came into this one a 4½-pt dog, having given up 51 pts the week before to a Maryland team that finished 5-7. It was finally time for the dominance to end, with Michigan having their best team since 2006 and a top-4 ranking. That kind of talk was music to Urban Meyer’s ears. This game was way worse than the score, and Ohio St figured out that they had a little-known weapon named Chris Olave. When the clock hit 0:00 “Revenge Tour” t-shirts hit the discount racks.

Ohio St 30 Michigan 27, 2OT (2016) – Watched this one with my old man. Come late 2nd quarter I had stopped yelling at the TV. Ohio State was only down a FG but they were getting physically dominated. It seemed like the day had finally come, and yelling wasn’t going to change things. But with a 3-0 lead and 4:10 to go in the half, on first down, Harbaugh chose to throw from his own 6 yd-line. Malik Hooker picked off Speight’s errant throw, returning it for six changing the complexion of the game. Then the last 5 minutes of regulation and the two overtimes were mind blowing. 

Colin: Ohio State poached two assistant coaches from the Michigan in the offseason. These two guys have obviously help transform this Buckeye defense from mediocrity to possibly the best defense in the country. Your thoughts on how their hires molded this Buckeye team, could their hires work against OSU tomorrow?

Baver: I’ll be honest, I wasn’t that excited to get Greg Mattison as defensive coordinator. At age 69, he was 4 years removed from his D-coordinator job at UM, having been downgraded to D-line coach in 2015. But this is why Ryan Day is paid millions, while I am making a wee bit less. The difference in this defense from last year to this is simply unreal. I was though happy at the time OSU landed Al Washington Jr. Washington was the best recruiting assistant UM had, and I had little doubt that he’d be an upgrade over Bill Davis as OSU’s LB coach. And the results he has gotten as LB coach have been HUGE.

I’m sure these hired give UM players & coaches more of a reason to want to beat Ohio St, but I don’t think this helps their chances tomorrow. After a couple of drives, emotions settle down, and the game usually comes down to: who is more talented, who wins the battle in the trenches, and whose coaches make the better calls. And I trust Ryan Day to ensure that his assistant’s tendencies don’t translate to UM advantages.

Colin: What does tomorrow’s game mean for OSU’s playoff chances and how do you see the entire playoff picture right now?

Baver: My thoughts...

--Ohio St: A win in the B10 Title game puts OSU in; a loss in that game leaves them out. OSU-UM game would only effect seeding if OSU is in.

--LSU: The Tigers are in if they simply win 1 of their last 2 gms.

--Clemson: May need to win both of their last 2 gms. A tight loss in one of the two of them makes it close to a 50/50 call as to the Clemson getting in.

--Georgia: Need to win out. A loss in either game, they are out.

--Alabama: Need a win & a couple upsets to get in, but one of the upsets CANNOT be Ga over LSU. 

--Utah and Oklahoma: If one team wins out and the other doesn’t, the team wining out is likely in.

--Baylor: Need to win both the next two, do so impressively, and need help.

—Brent Baver and Colin Gawel

What is Ohio State Walking into Saturday Night? Baver Answers Colin's Questions

Colin: Some potent Ohio State offenses have struggled in the hostile Happy Valley environment. You have been there before and are headed there again this weekend. What makes it such a tough place to score points?

Baver:The noise level is insane….parts of the stadium will vibrate at times when the Nits have it goin’. It’s been complete mayhem for the three games I’ve attended there, 2005, 2014 and 2016 - all white-outs. Their fans can be taken out of the game, as any crowd can if their team is getting hammered. But if they are in the game, the PSU fans sustain their loudness for long periods of time. It’s just so hard to stay in rhythm on offense in that environment. I know Ohio St wasn’t prepared for it in ’05, scoring only 10 pts when they had a high-powered offense.

Colin: On Saturday, If Haskins Jr plays as well against Penn State as JT Barrett did last year, will he become the Heisman front runner? 

Baver: Tua’s got a big lead right now and is going to be tough to pass unless Bama gets upset, and that may not even matter. I see he’s favored against the field right now by some sportsbooks, but Dwayne has the 2nd best odds. Haskins has by far the best skillset I have seen in terms of a passer that has played here. But we’ve seen so many good QBs fade here (Schlichter after his sophomore year, Troy’s infamous last game against Florida, & JT’s passing in late ’16 and ’17), so I’m trying not to get too far ahead of myself with Dwayne.

Colin: Can Penn State hope to hold the Buckeyes to under the 39 points they scored last year in Columbus? 

Baver: 39 sounds about right to me for an over/under on Ohio St’s pts scored. But I worry that OSU might not be able to spell Dobbins. I know Urban said Weber will play, but I’m not so sure. With the pace this Buckeye offense is running at, they need both Weber and Dobbins Saturday night in Beaver Stadium. Still, Ohio State has a lot of weapons, and a gunslinger at QB. And I would argue that TCU has a better defense than Penn State’s.

Colin: Conversely, can this Bosa-less defense hold the Lions to under the 38 they scored against the Bucks in 2017?  

Baver: Do you know how many tackles the three starting Buckeye LBs had against Tulane? Zero. Unreal. I have no confidence in this LB crew, so the OSU D-line and DBs have to get it done. Chase Young needs to come up big. And the so-called 50/50 balls that McSorley throws up? Those passes are completed every time I’m watching…which is why anyone calling them 50/50 balls is selling McSorely and his WRs short. 38 pts by the Nits Saturday? That’s another number that again sounds about right to me. 

Colin: Nationally, where do you think the OSU v PSU game fits among much watch college rivalries? 

Baver: It’s not there yet, but as long as Urban and James Franklin hang around, this game is going to huge, and the rivalry is going grow big time.

Colin: Final thoughts and prediction? 

Baver: I’ll give the slightest advantage to Ohio State here, as they have fewer personnel questions and better depth. But many of OSU advantages are somewhat offset by the edge Penn State gains in playing Ohio State at night in Beaver Stadium in a white-out. Dwayne hasn’t showed any signs of getting in a funk on the big stage, but this will be unlike anything he has played in. I tend to think he will again hold up well as long as the pass protection is at least adequate. I do worry about Miles Sanders and KJ Hamler possibly both coming up big Saturday night for the Penn State offense (and Hamler as on returns). Hamler is 170 pounds soaking wet, but the kid is electric.

The last two gms have decided by a total of 4 pts and the ’14 gm there went double-OT. I tend to think it will be another one of those games. 

Prediction: Ohio State 42 Penn State 40.

Colin: Know you are traveling but any other games you will be checking in on this weekend? 

Baver: The spread is higher than I thought it would be with Notre Dame currently a 5½ pt favorite over Stanford. But the timing of this game really gives the Irish a big advantage. I think Notre Dame has been waiting on Stanford, while the Cardinal had that emotional comeback win in Eugene last Saturday night. I don’t think they will have much left in the tank, and really like Notre Dame at home in this spot. And I really like the move to Ian Book at QB.

I’ll leave it at that, other than picking OSU to win, but not covering in a very tight game. And we’re going to see a lot of fireworks Saturday night. Can’t wait.

Can Gary Patterson and TCU's defense slow down Ohio State's offense? - Baver answers Colin's questions

You can hear Baver every Friday at 7:40 am on CD1025 with Brian Phillips. Follow @baverbuckeyebag

Colin: Ok, everyone is losing their minds over this Buckeye offense but I suppose it’s worth noting that OSU beat Rutgers 58-0 and 56-0 the past two years with JT Barrett putting up huge passing numbers as well. So technically 2018 is a step backwards. Are we getting ahead of ourselves or is this offense destined for greatness? 

Baver: The upside of this Buckeye offense is the highest it’s been since Urban’s arrival.  But yeah, Rutgers is not good, and Oregon St’s defense is as bad as it gets. We will know a lot more around 11:30 pm Saturday night. 

Colin: Could we lose Haskins to the NFL after one season? 

Baver: Yes…and Haskins is currently running either 3rdor 4thin the Heisman odds, depending on the sportsbook. I see Todd McShay is already talking about Haskins NFL upside. And if Dwayne has a big game Saturday night, then you will hear a lot more talk about Haskins bolting after this season. Still, there isn’t much of a sample size right now in terms of Haskins’ performances against good competition. He played less than a half against Michigan last year - that’s it. Again, we will know more after Saturday.

Colin: What does TCU have to do to slow down the Buckeye attack and are they capable of doing it? 

Baver: Phil Steele has each of TCU’s three units on defense (DL, LBs & DBs) as the top units in the B12. Now, the B12 isn’t known for playing much D, so let’s not mistake this for Alabama’s defense. But if there is one coach that is capable of getting a high-powered tempo offense in a funk, it’s Gary Patterson. TCU’s 4-2-5 defense doesn’t have to substitute much to match up with the personnel on opposing offenses. And tempo offenses often feel a need to slow down to study the Horn Frogs’ alignment. But TCU is going to have to apply consistent pressure on Haskins and force some critical mistakes, otherwise I can’t see them winning this game.  

Colin: The defense faces its first test this weekend against TCU. Are they prepared to stop a top flight mobile QB in Shawn Robinson? 

Baver: I re-watched the Rutgers game focusing on the linebackers, and although the defense played much better than they did a week prior, the LB play is just plain bad in terms of what we are used to seeing in Columbus. Like Oklahoma and Iowa last year, I think TCU will try to expose the Buckeye LBs with the short passing game. Luckily, TCU doesn’t throw to the TE much, so that part of the nightmare from last year’s Iowa game shouldn’t reoccur. I think Robinson will make some plays with his legs, and the WR combo of Kavontae Turpin & Jalen Reagor (4.32 speed) will hit a few big plays. But the OSU D-line will force Robinson into making some key mistakes. Nick Bosa is possessed right now, and it’s like nothing I have seen before out of an OSU DE, and we’ve had some good ones. 

Colin: Forgot a Ted Ginn style punt return, can we just fair catch the ball without it hitting the turf? What gives? 

Baver: After McCall misplayed the first one, you’d have thought that he would have made damn sure he caught the 2nd one cleanly. Nope. Ohio State has too much talent on this team to give McCall many more shots. Yeah, I am too the point where I just want the punt fielded cleanly and let the offense put the ball in the end zone. 

Colin: Final thoughts and prediction? 

Baver: I am going to guess Urban Meyer has spent the better part of the last three weeks scouting TCU’s defense. I think even with a first-year starter at QB, Meyer and Ryan Day will have this offense well prepared for the TCU defense. I do worry you will see some chinks in the armor with the OSU O-line, but Haskins, the tailbacks, and the WRs should be too much for the TCU D. On the other side of the ball, as mentioned, the Bucks will surrender some big plays and some points, but the Buckeye D-line will cause too many problems for TCU and Shawn Robinson. Prediction: Ohio State 42 TCU 24, and I’d feel comfortable laying the 13 pts here.

Colin: What other games and lines will you be keeping an eye on this weekend? 

Baver: I think Joe Burrow is now settling in and I see LSU hanging tough with Auburn. So getting 10 pts looks like a solid play to me. Of course, LSU is coached by Ed Orgeron, so I make look foolish here. I tend to think Boise St gets it done at Ok State, so I like the Smurfs catching 2 pts there. Best Boise team in a while. And I think the Bama train keeps rolling and covers the 21½ at Ole Miss. Bama usually wins Nat’l Titles with an average QB, and Tua is far better than average.

Is this Buckeye D-line the best yet? - Baver Answers Colin's Questions

Colin: Do you think the offensive play calling would have been the same with Urban on the sideline? 

Baver: You would have seen more designed runs with Haskins, and the pace would have been slower with the play calls ultimately going through Urban. Maybe Meyer will learn a bit from watching things from afar, and allow Day and Wilson to manage the play calling a bit more going forward. On the flip side, I wonder if Schiano took more chances with his aggressive scheme while Urban was watching at home. I tend to think both teams would have scored less had Urban been calling the shots.

Colin: What else on offense jumped out at you? 

Baver: Mike Weber….what strides this kid has made under RB coach Tony Alford, and probably from watching a lot of film. He’s mainly a north/south runner, but on the one play in the 2ndhalf where the middle was congested on 3rd& 1, he made a quick decision to step back and cut outside picking up the first. I’m sure NFL scouts took notice.

What else can be said about Haskins? So comfortable, gets rid of the ball so quickly, adjusts the touch he puts on the ball when he needs to, hits receivers in stride, etc. The kid’s upside is crazy, but it of course won’t be that easy against a good D. 

Colin: I was at the game and Bosa and C Young were literally racing each other to sack the QB on most plays. We have had some great lines but could this one be special or will the relative lack of depth be a problem in tough games? 

Baver: If Dre’Mont, Bosa and Young stay healthy, this line may indeed go down as the best OSU has ever had. The LT for Oregon St, Blake Brandel, is actually one of the better tackles in the Pac-12, and the dude got abused by Bosa. Dre’Mont has done some work since we last saw him, and his athleticism was on full display against the Beavers. Chase Young? He may have had some mental mistakes, but he couldn’t be blocked either. Tyquan Lewis and Sam Hubbard were very good but Bosa and Young are at another level. There are depth concerns at DE, but this team has a pretty deep set of DTs.

Colin: But...the defense got gashed for HUGE plays multiple times. Should we be worried? What gives? 

Baver: You had a combination of inexperienced guys out of position, an extremely aggressive Greg Schiano defense, and they pulled Bosa and Dre’Mont at halftime. In fact, the four best OSU defenders, Bosa, Dre’Mont, Borland, and Fuller were not on the field when Artavis Pierce had his two long runs. 

Still, the expectations are a lot higher than what we saw out of the OSU D this past Saturday. I don’t think the LBs are going to be ready for the big time anytime soon, and the safety play was horrific. The good thing is, if the D-line starters stay healthy, the coaches can devote so much extra time to the back-7. They of course have 4 and 5-star guys to work with, so it may be a night and day difference come November.

Colin: Let’s skip Rutgers talk and look around the rest of the Big Ten, especially the vaunted East division. What were your take always from week one? 

Baver: You would have thought Michigan would have been fired up and ready to break a 3-game losing streak with a lineup that’s playoff caliber. Not. And the defense that many have raved about (myself included) has not fared well against high-caliber offenses. Michigan is underachieving like nobody’s business. 

Sparty? Slow starts are par for the course for them early in the season, but one has to wonder if they have the talent to challenge in the east. Penn State? I think it’s going to take a while for this team to adjust with all the guys they lost. Wisconsin? Hornibrook looked poor again throwing the ball. That would be concerning to me if I were a cheese head. But that’s still a top-10 Badger team in my opinion.

Colin: What other games and lines will you be keeping an eye on this weekend? 

Baver: I’ve got Ohio State covering the 35 this week; I’m calling OSU 56-17. That would mirror the 2014 score, which is the closest RU has come to Ohio St since joining the Big Ten. 

In the other big ones, I like the favorites for a change. That would be Georgia laying the 10 at South Carolina, Clemson laying the 12 at A&M, and Stanford at home laying 6 against USC. Too much of a talent gap I think in the each of first two gms I mentioned, and I tend to think So Cal true freshman JT Daniels is going to get a rude awakening in Stanford Stadium.

Baver Answers Beaver Week Questions: Part Two - Brent Baver

Colin: Our receivers work hard and have so much depth blah blah blah blah. Is anybody going to step up and be the man who puts fear in the opposing defense? 

Baver: I think the short answer is no. I mean, a defensive coordinator seeing Parris Campbell get in the open field is nightmare for him, but I know that’s not what you mean. Campbell really isn’t a true receiver. I must say that Zone-6 did finally grow on me last year and you saw OSU’s overall depth take its toll against several of its opponents, including Penn State and Michigan in huge comeback wins for the Buckeyes. 

But if the old fashion go-to WR is what you want, it’s very unlikely you are going to see that this season. The guy with the biggest upside of the bunch is Binjamen Victor, but he brings the biggest downside as well. A sleeper to watch would be CJ Saunders. 

The depth argument isn’t sexy, but Phil Steele and Athlon both ranked Ohio State’s WRs as the best WR group in the Big Ten.

Colin: Should I even ask about the tights ends? 

Baver: If you are into blocking schemes, sure…..

Colin: The defense should be stout again. How would you attack them if you were coaching Oregon State? 

Baver: Not that Oregon State has the talent or scheme to do it, but Oklahoma and Iowa exposed Ohio State big time with their short passing games in upset wins against Ohio State last season. These games were a low point for Buckeye LBs since Urban arrived in 2012. And I guess I’d use your “…so much depth blah blah blah..” comment when looking at this LB group. With the talent OSU brings in year in and year out, maybe one or even two guys explode like Darren Lee did in ’14, but I am taking a wait and see approach with this group. 

Colin: Meanwhile Michigan is taking on Notre Dame. Considering the Wolverines closed out 2017 with three straight losses, how big a game is this for Harbaugh and his non chicken eaters? 

Baver: Huge. Jimmy was surviving last year’s rebuilding year, but then his team blew a 14-0 lead losing to Ohio State once again. But at least UM followed that up with a 2ndhalf collapse against a hapless South Carolina team in the Outback bowl, earning the Big Ten its only bowl lost last season.

On paper, this Michigan team clearly looks like Harbaugh’s best. Their defense lost everybody after the 2016 season, and still had a top ranked D last season. They may have the best D in the nation this year. They finally have a QB, and they have a lot of very highly rated guys that got good work as true freshmen in ‘17. 

Still, this has been a Michigan team that couldn’t win a tight game against a decent opponent to save their lives. But I guess I will play the fool again and pick Jimmy to finally get the road win against a ranked team, in a 17-14 type game. But this is a game that can go either way.

Colin: Any other games and lines you will be keeping an eye on this weekend? 

Baver: Washington vs Auburn in Atlanta is the game of the week. Both are legit top-10 teams nationally on paper. Chris Peterson has done a phenomenal job so far at Auburn, but has lost most of his matchups against elite opponents. Auburn doesn’t get the pub like Bama does in this neck of the woods, but Gus and his assistants have been recruiting like gangbusters, and like Washington, the Tigers are stacked this year. I would have these teams probably about even on a neutral field, so I would have lean Auburn with the Huskies traveling across the country to play to play Gus’ boys.

Other gms…..I am really interested in seeing Joe Burrow in action against the Mark Richt’s Hurricanes, although I don’t have a good feel for how that one will turn out. I tend to think Joe won’t be ready yet, as he’s had little time to adjust in Baton Rouge. Still, I will be rooting for him.

I will pass on picking games against the spread this week and just enjoy the return of college football with the nightmare of an August we have had in Buckeye country….I’ll make one exception and pick the OSU vs OSU game ATS.

I’d say take the Beavers getting 38.5 against Ohio State with all the uncertainty with this Buckeye team. I also wonder if you will see OSU play true freshmen for much of the second half with the new redshirt rule. I’ve got Ohio State winning 48-14.