Tribe Musings - by Scott Goldberg

For me there are basically two types of Cleveland sports fans: 1) This is the year--no matter how bad the last two decades have been (Browns—lately, Indians—‘60’s and 70’s) or how many tragic failings (Indians—lately, Browns—the fumble, the drive), this is the year we reach the mountaintop (for the Indians that means win the World Series, for the Browns that means finish above .500); and 2) This team will definitely break my heart.  There are the rare fans that can combine the two, but I have generally been in category 2 since the year Sports Illustrated put Joe Carter and Corey Snyder on the cover of its baseball preview issue circa 1987?? Geez, I am old. 

This year feels like when you ate that carry-out even though you probably should have thrown it out sorta year.  Gone are the bats of Encarnacion, Brantley, and Alonso, and bullpen arms Andrew Miller and Cody Allen.  I'll admit I'm not going to miss Encarnacion--his numbers look good, but it always felt like his homers came when we were already up 5 runs and struck out when the game was on the line.  It also feels like Miller and Allen's best years are behind them--like 2016 when we should have beat the Cubs in the f-ing World Series.  Brantley is going to have a big year.  Hidden somewhere in the middle of the Astros lineup, he probably ends up having champagne poured over his head as the Astros win the World Series.  Alonso seemed to have a lot of big hits, but my guess is the return of Carlos Santana will be about a wash at first base. 

Other than bringing Santana back, the Indians have done little to improve their roster.  The theory seems to be that the AL Central is so weak that they need to do little to solidify their position at the top of the division.  This gives the Tribe the luxury to find out if some of their young players are ready to be every day contributors or go out mid-season and find a piece or two for the playoffs.  I trust the front knows stuff I don't about the make up of this team, but I thought the half burrito in the fridge from last week was still good and I was wrong, very wrong. 

Lindor and Kipnis won't be available opening day.  And although, the Indians survived most of last year without Kipnis (and could again this year), we need Frankie.  It's not just his bat (he is a fantasy stud) or his glove (at least above average--he's no Omar), but mostly it's his smile.  He is the leader of the team along with Tito and makes sure everyone is loose and having fun.  He is a joy to watch and it's clear his joy is infectious for both his teammates and the fans.  Then this week Jose Ramirez gets carted off the field.  Thankfully, the injury seems minor, but the Indian’s prospects change in a heartbeat if Jose isn't in the lineup. 

The bright spot should be starting pitching.  Apart from the Tribe shopping Kluber and Bauer this offseason (what the hell was that about) and Bauer's dissatisfaction as to how he was treated in arbitration, the rotation looks to be perhaps the best in baseball.  Let's just hope Tito can save them so they have something left for the post-season.  The bullpen was shaky at best last year, doesn't feel like they added much to improve, but my sense is they won't be any worse than last year. 

Couple of guys I see stepping up this year: Leonys Martin and Greg Allen.  Not totally sure why I feel this way, but tried to pick them up late in my fantasy draft and missed on both, so that tells me others might be thinking the same thing.  

It's spring--let the games begin.  Go Tribe.  Oh, and did you here the Browns got Odell….

Hot Stove Chatter. Reds and Indians. by Brian Phillips

Reds fans should be concerned by the complete lack of movement on the offensive front after last season's anemic output, and their starting staff is now worse with the exits of Mat Latos to Miami and Alfredo Simon to Detroit. 

The idea of trading Simon in and of itself isn't bad. 2014 was a high water mark without question for the journeyman. What they got in return though is a piddling young shortshop in Eugenio Suarez and underwelming A-ball pitcher Jonathan Crawford. 

The 23 year old Suarez appeared in 85 games for the big club last season and in 277 plate appearances whiffed almost 25% of the time. In 2012 Suarez was a top 15 prospect for Detroit, but their list was pretty weak that season. (Nick Castellanos was #1, and I don't see a future star there.) Suarez was rated then as a decent glove guy with a utility infielder ceiling. Not a lot to get excited about there.

Crawford was drafted in the first round by the Tigers in 2013. The 23 year old from The University of Florida pitched in A ball last year and posted decent numbers, but his walk and strike out rates at that low level indicate a cloudy future. 

The Latos deal looks like a salary dump to me. Sure there are concerns over health, but isn't that true of any pitcher (see Cueto)? In return the Marlins shipped a nice catching prospect in Chad Wallach and a mediocre rightie named Anthony Desclafani.  

The just turned 23 Wallach was a fifth round pick in 2013 out of baseball factory Cal-State Fullerton. He logged a walk rate in A ball last year that can only be described as Billy Beane porn. 62 walks to 46 k's is impressive at any level. He doesn't display any power to speak of, but scouts love his defense. Someday the Reds can trade him to Oakland.

Desclafani is on his third organization having arrived in Miami as part of that infamous trade with the Blue Jays back in 2013. He started five games for the Marlins last season, but scouts profile him out of the bullpen. In the Arizona Fall League just last month the clipboards were still looking for a supposed developing change up. Without that he's just another fastball/slider guy topping out at 91/94 with the heater. In a 33 inning big league sample last year Desclafani showed more fly ball tilt than you'd like for a guy going into Great American, and he gave up too much hard contact. He'll compete for a rotation job in the spring, but don't hold your breath.

Bottom Line? The Reds are worse off than they were when they packed up their gear in late September. Homer Bailey underwent surgery in September, and you just hold your breath with Cueto's durability long term. You have to be concerned as a Reds fan.

The Indians off season has been pretty simple by comparison. The Indians acquired slugging OF/1B Brandon Moss from the A's in exchange for AA second baseman Joey Wendle on December 8th. The Tribe are loaded with young middle infielders so giving up Wendle isn't a big deal. 

Brandon Moss is Nick Swisher with more pop. Both hit righties better than lefties though Swish is a switch hitter. I'm sure they're both fun to drink beer with so there's that. Moss is going to strike out a ton, hit 25 or so home runs and drive you nuts when he goes 0 for a week here and there. 

And on Tuesday the Indians signed veteran starter Gavin Floyd to a one year 4 million dollar deal. Floyd's only season in Atlanta last year was shortened by injury. You can't really call him an innings eater as he failed to reach 200 in his final four years with the White Sox. The money is right though and if they can give him to the ball 30 times in 2015 they'll look at him as a bargain. Floyd essentially replaces the departed Justin Masterson in the rotation. Masterson was always a bit hard to figure anyway.

The Tribe could be pretty good this year if they get bounce backs from Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana and Swisher. All had disappointing seasons and yet the Indians hung around to the end. 

Brian Phillips is the afternoon jock at the legendary Indie radio blowtorch WWCD102.5. He knows a thing or two about a thing or two. 

Tribe Time - Three Action Items for the Front Office by Jim Brazytis

Now that the Indians season is over it’s time we reflect on – hold on, I’m taking a deep breath, trying not to get too choked up. 

Oh forget it! I’m not going to look back on six months of average baseball featuring a team that couldn’t hit or catch a ball…..I’m looking forward to the future, to 2015, when the green grass and red clay of a shining Progressive Field plays host to the 114th year of professional baseball in Cleveland.

Excuse me as I step off my soapbox. Unfortunately, to envision the future we must explore the past. Based on what we - Indians fans - witnessed this summer, what do the Indians need to do to once again reach the postseason and hopefully win the World Series? Here are three bold actions the front office must take in order to position the Tribe for a postseason run in 2015:

Shed Some Fat

The salaries of Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher comprise nearly 40% of the Indians payroll! That means 40% of the payroll not living up to the contracts they signed in 2013. Bourn and Swisher have two years left on these “anchors” and now is the time to cut them loose. Unfortunately you couldn’t move Swisher with a bulldozer, diminishing power numbers and the knees of 80-year old have “do not touch” written on Brohio’s back. 

So, that leaves Bourn as the “most likely underachiever” to be jettisoned to a new team. According to www.IntheMitt.com, some possible homes for Bourn are Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Detroit and Toronto. By moving Bourn, the Indians will free up some cash to sign a much needed free agent bat, plus get a player in return, perhaps a pitcher like Toronto’s A.J. Happ (also rumored to be on the block according to www.IntheMitt.com), that can help strengthen the starting rotation, especially when the Indians take this next action. 

Use the High Heater in the Trade Market

The Indians don’t have many assets to offer up in the trade market due to a lackluster farm system and an average Major League roster, but we all know what teams crave – pitching, especially young, power pitching. Thus, I present the trade of Danny Salazar. Salazar has been up & down in his two years with the big club, and even though his fastball hits 100 mph, it’s straight as an arrow. So where do you trade him and for what? How about sending him to Arizona straight up for Mike Trumbo or packaging him with Bourn and Lonnie Chisenhall to the Marlins for Giancarlo Stanton? Come on, let me dream a little. Salazar is a valuable commodity and should be used while he’s still considered a prospect.
Spend Some Money. Wisely.

The Indians are in desperate need of offense! The Wahoos need hitters that get on base, move runners and, most importantly, get them across the plate. I understand the Dolans have been burned by the less than dynamic duo of Swisher and Bourn, but I believe they still must trust their baseball people and shop on the free agent market. Strong bats like Michael Morse, Michael Cuddyer and Chase Headley can help, as well as the continued development of their own players like Tyler Holt and Zach Walters. 

I’m not saying these are the actual moves that will be made, but it should be the general direction. The Indians need to clear salary to obtain pieces that will help them win games, not just take up spots on the roster (calling Bourn, Swisher and Kipnis). Secondly, the team should deal from a position of strength and trade Salazar for another bat, or even a dependable fielder, which they can certainly use. And once they’ve cleared some salary, spend wisely on the free agent market for more offense.

I’m looking forward: forward to a winter of Hot Stove action and a summer of Indians baseball where the players live up to their contracts, the offense isn’t offensive and the Tribe’s back to October baseball. Indian Fever…..be a believer!!!

Jim Brazytis is a 43-year old amateur athlete still waiting for the scouts to find him at his "old man" baseball league games. A life-long Clevelander, he has suffered through decades of losing sports teams and heartache while waiting for some Cleveland professional sports team team, besides the Cleveland Crunch, to win a championship.

What the Shuck, Tito? - Tribe Talk by Jim Brazytis

What the Shuck, Tito?

Bottom of the ninth down by two, your playoff life is on the line, in a must win game against your division rival, the team directly in front of you in the division and Wild Card race, and you pinch hit J.B. Shuck? J.B. Shuck?!!! To say the least, I was less than impressed by Indians’ Manager Terry Francona’s lineup and moves Monday night in the second game of the doubleheader against the Kansas City Royals, which the Indians lost 2-0 (first game was the conclusion of the suspended game from August 31).

To realistically have a chance at making the playoffs the Indians needed to win every game this final week of the season. Well, fellow baseball fans, when you send a lineup to the plate featuring heavy hitters like Chris Jimenez and Tyler Holt, that’s not too likely to happen – and it didn’t. I’m not asking for the 1927 Yankees here - hell, I’ll take the 1986 Indians! I know Jason Kipnis has been struggling, but come on, he needs to be in the lineup - and how about the “Great Giambino?” Tito, say it ain’t so, there’s no way you can have more faith in Jimenez making an impact then Jason Giambi, a guy who has nearly 500 career home runs and saved your season last year by hitting one of the most memorable home runs in Progressive Field history. 

I realize Indians’ General Manager Chris Antonetti has done Francona no favors during the year when it comes to bolstering the lineup. Plus, I also know it’s hard to put a strong lineup on the field when you have underachievers like Kipnis taking up valuable roster spots (I didn’t forget Swisher – he’s on the disabled list), but you still have to make better game decisions. 

So let’s turn our attention back to the ninth inning, due up for the Indians were Chisenhall, Jimenez and Holt. I’ll agree Chisenhall gives us a chance but instead of taking a few pitches he swings at the first thing he sees and grounds out.  Not Francona’s fault but still horrible baseball. (Similar to Carlos Santana’s ill-timed swing with the bases loaded and no outs in the first.) 

Now here’s where Tito really strikes out! Not that it wasn’t bad enough he had Jimenez in the lineup to start, he compounded this decision by sending Shuck to the plate in his place. What about Perez, Aguilar, someone who has a chance to drive the ball, get on base, do something? As an Indians fan I was ashamed at how overmatched Shuck was by the Royals’ closer, Greg Holland. With every lame swing he took, I saw my dreams of October baseball plummeting like Swisher’s power numbers over the past two years. David Murphy pinch hitting for Holt next didn’t look much better but at least he has given us some big hits during the year.

So yes Tito, what the Shuck? There had to be someone else, some magic you could have created with the lineup other than subjecting us to a pinch hitter who swung like a rusty gate. Please give me hope! And to the front office, beyond hope, give Francona some offensive players so we don’t waste playoff chances like this in the years to come. Let’s be honest, with this team’s history we’ll only have this strong pitching until it’s time for them to get paid.

Cleveland Indians Coverage: Francona Still May Need a Bubble Gum Supply for October by Jim Brazytis

I’m not giving up on the Indians just yet! I know, I know, we’re four games out of the division and second wild card spot with two weeks left in the season. But stay with me, I’m talking with my head here, plus a little bit of my broken Cleveland sports heart.

If you take an objective look through my “homer” glasses at the teams we’re battling for a playoff position, which include the Detroit Tigers, Oakland A’s, Kansas City Royals and Seattle Mariners,  the Wahoos still have a chance to ensure Manager Terry Francona is blowing bubbles in October. First, we’ll start at home with the Indians. After last weekend’s series with the Tigers the Tribe now will take on the Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins, then they go head-to-head for four games with the Royals (this series includes a suspended game we’re leading by two runs in the bottom of the tenth inning) before wrapping up the season against the Tampa Bay Rays.

All these teams are sub-.500 except for the Royals but at least we control our own destiny against them. In addition to the series with the Indians, the Royals also have a three-game series against the Tigers. So their road to the franchise’s first playoff appearance in nearly three decades is not a lock.

Now let’s look west to see what’s in front of the Oakland A’s and Seattle Mariners. The A’s are leading the wild card race by a ½ game over the Royals and Mariners but are fading fast. This team in playing horrible baseball! Over their last 10 games they’re 2-8 and 14-26 since July 30! My prediction - and you can take this one to the bank - team “Money Ball” will not be playing in October. (In your face Brad Pitt.)

In Seattle, the Mariners are hoping their $240 million investment in Robinson Cano will pay playoff dividends. The Mariners are playing at a high level with a 7-3 record over their last 10 games.  But Tribe fans have no fear; the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are here! Luckily for the Indians, the Mariners have seven games left against the best team in the American League – the Angels – who are fighting to hold off the Baltimore Orioles for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Over their last 10 games the Angels are 9-1. All I know is that I’ll be Mike Trout’s biggest fan the next two weeks.

Now that all the analytics are out of the way, I’m just pleading to the sports-gods, please, please let the Tribe get on a roll. We can still do it, I know we can! All we need is a little hitting to go with the outstanding pitching we’ve been getting and Francona will be blowing playoff bubbles on the corner of Ontario and Carnegie.

Jim Brazytis is a 43-year old amateur athlete still waiting for the scouts to find him at his "old man" baseball league games. A life-long Clevelander, he has suffered through decades of losing sports teams and heartache while waiting for some Cleveland professional sports team team, besides the Cleveland Crunch, to win a championship.

Brian Phillips' 2013 Baseball Preview: A.L. Central

The American League Central

Welcome to part 2 of my 2013 Major League Baseball preview. In our first chapter I anointed the Blue Jays AL East Champions, and buried the Yankees and Red Sox. It's going to be a strange year in the east.... That said don't look to the Central for change. Things seem easier to grasp there.

1. Detroit Tigers

Measuring the 2013 Motown squad is easy. They're better. It's easy to see why. Victor Martinez is back after missing 2012 with a knee injury. I expect it'll take a few weeks for him to find his bat, but I'm optimistic long term. Lucky for him the Tigers can wait for V. Mart. Miguel Cabrera is coming off the first triple crown season since 1968 and is right in his prime. Prince Fielder is in his second American League season... and showed little sign of discomfort last year. I expect the two of them to have monster years.

Sure the Tigers still look a bit suspect defensively, though free agent right fielder Torii Hunter should help a bit and the Tigers' outstanding staff can cover up a lot of deficiency. Justin Verlander is money every five days. Doug Fister is as consistent as they come, though he was a bit wobbly in the first half last year with some nagging injuries. Anibal Sanchez doesn't garner nearly the respect he deserves, and Max Scherzer will break out big time in 2013 (see below.)

The Tigers' pen is a concern. At this point rookie Bruce Rondon will close. That's a lot of pressure for a kid. 

They'll Hot Rod In Motown If....

- The Tigers can play good enough defense.

- A clear starter can emerge in left field. I'm looking at you Andy Dirks.

- The men in the pen can quickly settle into defined roles.

- Torii Hunter can contribute offensively.

The Car Could Break Down If...

- Rondon can't seize the closer role.

- The Tigers boot the ball around too much.

- Victor Martinez struggles to regain 2011 form.

- Alex Avilla can't shake off a disappointing 2012.

Bottom Line

95 Wins

Fantasy Target

Scherzer. High strike out rate. Better control. This is your last season to nab him at anywhere near a bargain.

Fantasy Turd

Avila. His productive 2011 was luck driven. I see him producing closer to last season's numbers.

2. Chicago White Sox

A year ago the consensus on the White Sox was generally not positive. General Manager Kenny Williams had cleaned house a bit, and big 2011 free agent signing Adam Dunn was coming off one of the worst offensive seasons for a regular in major league history. The Sox surprised though, leading a good deal of the year, hanging in until the end, but coming up three games shy of the division champion Tigers. 

Over the winter the White Sox gave us almost nothing to talk about. Catcher A.J. Pierzynski, who had obliterated a previous career high with 27 home runs and a solid .278 batting average signed with the Rangers, leaving the Sox with rookie free swinger Tyler Flowers as their starting catcher. Journeyman infielder Jeff Keppinger signed from Tampa and looks to be Chicago's every day third baseman (spelling trouble for fading prospect Brent Morel.) That's really it. It was a uneventful around the South Side stove. 

The Sox hope pitcher John Danks can put an injury marred year behind him, and that the resurgent Jake Peavy can handle 30 or so starts again. Former closer Chris Sale proved to be dominate in his first year as a starter and comes into 2013 the staff ace. The bullpen looks a lot like last year. Chicago can't afford another year of shape shifting roles out there. 

The Viciedo, De Aza, Rios outfield was very solid last year. Wrist injuries are a red flag, especially for older players like first baseman Paul Konerko. Sure DH Adam Dunn launched 41 home runs last year, but his contact rate makes him a hack for the ages. Don't look for a repeat of 40 plus dingers, and expect an average around .200. Up the middle short stop Alexi Ramirez was a nice power/speed combo. Second sacker Gordon Beckham meanwhile really needs to take a step forward. Keppinger? Chicago prays that Morel can finally figure it out.

The Sox Will Be Stain Free If....

- Konerko bounces back from the wrist.

- Adam Dunn can figure out how to hit at least .230

- Alex Rios doesn't repeat his great one year awful the next four year pattern.

- Young closer Addison Reed holds that gig all season.

- Peavy can deliver those 30 + starts.

- Rookie catcher Flowers can make huge step forward. He's it. The job is his.

Smelly Sox If.... 

- Dunn continues flailing. There's got to be a less painful way of hitting 41 home runs.

- Konerko's wrist is the beginning of the end.

- Flowers isn't ready.

- The bullpen becomes an adventure.

Bottom Line

83 Wins

Fantasy Target

Viciedo. Barely 24 years old and coming off a 25 home run season, the kid is still lasting long in drafts. Not next year.

Fantasy Turd

Dunn. His 2012 second half was really putrid. He won't hit better than .210 this year. 

3. Cleveland Indians

We're all guilty of overvaluing managers. You don't win without talent. That said the Cleveland Indians' hire of former Red Sox skipper Terry Francona in the off season inspires confidence. What inspires more confidence however is that the Indians added....... talent. 

The bad news first. Their new crop of off season acquisitions all display the same prodigious talent for swinging without making contact with the baseball. In 2012 this year's Tribe newcomers whiffed at an alarming rate: Drew Stubbs (166), Michael Bourn (155), Nick Swisher (141), Mark Reynolds (159). For Stubbs and Reynolds it would have been worse had they logged a full season of at bats. Both have 200 plus strike out seasons in their pasts. Hell Reynolds still owns the all time single season record (223 in 2009). I don't know if the Indians will break the all time team mark of 1,529 (2009 Arizona Diamondbacks featuring..... Mark Reynolds), but I'll bet they lead the majors this season. 

The good news is a meek hitting Cleveland squad has been transformed into one with some pop, and Bourn and Stubbs give the Indians legitimate speed and stolen base efficiency. Nick Swisher provides clubhouse leadership intangibles previously lacking. Returning second baseman Jason Kipnis is a budding star, and catcher Carlos Santana made tremendous strides in the second half of 2012 without much around him in the order. Things are looking up along the shores of Lake Eire. 

On the hill the rotation remains a concern, though in the long run the Diamondbacks will rue the day they traded mercurial prospect Trever Bauer to the Indians. The kid has everything, including plenty of attitude. If he develops the way scouts say he can the Indians will put up with it all day. The pen looks solid, though as I write closer Chris Perez has been shut down with some shoulder tightness. If the flakey Perez can't answer the bell the Indians have an able understudy in Vinnie Pestano. 

Large Stretch Run Crowds Will Cheer....

- Trevor Bauer emerging as a contributor on his way to ace status.

- Drew Stubbs improving his contact skills and cashes in on his blazing speed.

- Reynolds hitting 32 plus home runs.

- Third base man Lonnie Chisenhall emerging as a contributor.

- A Carlos Santana full season break out. 

An Empty Late Summer Progressive Field Will Host....

- A lousy rotation getting it's brains beaten in.

- One flailing swing and a miss after another.

- An unfortunate Kipnis sophomore slump. 

Bottom Line

78 Wins

Fantasy Target

Santana. That second half, featuring a positive walk to strike out ratio and 20 dingers will lead to a break out 2013.

Fantasy Turd

Stubbs. So many tools, but when you dig into the numbers he doesn't profile better than .230.

4. Kansas City Royals

The last time the Kansas City Royals were in the post season was 1985. They won the World Series that year behind 21 year old Cy Young Award winner Bret Saberhagen. Saberhagen is now 48 and retired 12 years ago. An entire generation has grown up in KC without seeing their local team play beyond the first weekend of October. 

In the intervening years there have been a few winning seasons sprinkled on a sea of losses. The last time the Royals were on the positive side of the ledger was 2003. When you lose and lose and lose you draft early and the Royals have loaded up on top picks. On their roster right now are four top three selections including the 2006 number one overall, pitcher Luke Hochevar. 

And that's really where they're at in KC. If this club is going to compete these top picks have to deliver. Hochevar has been an unmitigated disaster, and comes into the spring having to fight for a spot in the rotation. Eric Hosmer (third overall 2008) had a lousy 2012, but the uber prospect is only 23, and was battling injury last season. Don't look for him to be a dominate power hitter however. He doesn't hit the ball in the air nearly enough. On the other corner third baseman Mike Moustakas (second overall 2007) showed some pop last year, but he needs to improve his approach, taking some more walks and turning his middling contact rate into some harder hit balls. Outfielder Alex Gordon (second overall 2005) is, at the age of 29, who he is; a guy capable of throwing up 20 home runs and hitting .280. He's not a star, but a solid contributor. Royals fans can still feel optimistic. Hosmer, Moustakas, and Gordon are all going to contribute. (I'm writing Hochevar off). Catcher Salvador Perez turns 23 in May and is poised to become a super star. DH Billy Butler should turn in something close to .300/25/100. 

The rotation looks better, but at a high cost. The Royals sent 2012 minor league player of the year Wil Myers to Tampa to get James Shields and Wade Davis. Shields is a strike out per inning horse and settles in as KC's ace. Davis had a fine year last year..... as a reliever. The Royals want him to start however, and his career there has not been good. Jeremy Guthrie finished 2012 strong after The Royals somehow convinced the Rockies to take walk machine Jonathan Sanchez for him. Struggling Ervin Santana comes over from the Angels, but his best days are behind him. Bruce Chen again looks to round out the rotation... I have nothing to add to that. The bullpen is very young with Greg Holland penciled in as the closer. High K, but high walk Holland means adventure awaits. 

It'll Be Tubular Like 1985 If....

- New pitching acquisitions finally give KC some stability there. 

- Hosmer and Moustakas ratchet up the improvement.

- Short stop Alcides Escobar repeats a fine 2012. 

- Perez stays healthy for a full year. 

- The bullpen doesn't create a lot of drama.

- Center fielder Lorenzo Cain shows he's more than potential. 

It'll Be A Bummer Like Every Other Year If....

- Jeff Francoeur stinks as much as he did last season.

- Davis doesn't adjust to rotation return.

- Cain doesn't seize the moment.

- The bullpen flounders. 

- Santana continues to serve up gobs of home runs.

Bottom Line

77 Wins

Fantasy Target

Shields. If you're the sort that likes to wait a bit on pitching, the ex-Ray will probably be in a draft position to return value.

Fantasy Turd

Cain. He's been a minor break out candidate for awhile now. Problem is he doesn't get on base enough to cash in on his speed. 

5. Minnesota Twins

How quickly we forget. In 2010 the Minnesota Twins turned in their second of two straight AL Central titles. Since then they've stumbled to a pair of last place finishes. This year I don't see any way to avoid a third. 

Their return trip to the cellar starts on the mound. If you follow this club you know that as an organization the Twins value strike throwers. That's all well and good, but the Twins' inability to find and develop high strike out pitchers is becoming a real problem. This year they enter the season with a rotation of Scott Diamond, Kevin Correia, Vance Worley, Liam Hendricks and Mike Pelfrey. None of the five can even match the American League average for strike outs per nine innings. Worley comes closest at just over 7. Opposing batters know the Twins will be around the plate, and not throwing particularly hard. 

Up the middle the Twins look weak as well. Journeyman utility guy Jamey Carroll is Minnesota's starting second baseman. It's not a good sign when a regular on your club is setting a career high in plate appearances at the age of 39.  Still, Carroll can probably hit .260 which is way better than rookies Pedro Florimon (short stop), and Darin Mastroianni (center field). In most organizations both would be in AAA. Mastroianni may not make it to opening day with the Twins as he has resurgent prospect Aaron Hicks breathing down his neck. Watch those two this spring.

The good news is former AL MVP Justin Morneau was able to log 500 plus at bats last year. Sadly he remains a shadow of his pre concussion self. Joe Mauer is a nice player, but his monster 2009 seems a distant memory now. The $184 million dollar deal that took effect in 2011 is looking worse and worse, and has six more seasons to run. I don't want to be such a drag here so I'll counter that third sacker Trevor Plouffe gives 20 plus home run power and should continue to improve. Ryan Doumit is a nice versatile man to have around. Josh Willingham is a legit thumper. Glen Perkins seems to have found himself in the closer role. 

The Twins Will Not Be As Horrible As I Fear They Will Be If....

- Morneau and Mauer are huge and healthy.

- Ryan Doumit can stay healthy and relieve Mauer of an acceptable number of days behind the plate.

- Pitching prospects Trevor May, Alex Meyer, and Tommy John surgery grad Kyle Gibson can come up at some point and for the love of God strike someone out. 

The Twins Will Be Horrible If...

See above.

Bottom Line

62 Wins.

Fantasy Target

Doumit. Not sexy, but if he gets enough at bats he can approach 20 home runs to go with a .275 average. I'll take that in the catcher spot. 

Fantasy Turd

Willingham. Don't get me wrong. I like him, but his home run to fly ball ratio was a bit high last year. Don't pay for 35 dingers. Look for 25 to 27 on a bad team in a huge park.

Pencilstorm would like to encourage all you fantasy nerds to get out of your Mom's basement for once and join Brian P. and Colin G. for a MLB opening day party at the Treebar Monday April 1st. Reds vs Angels- First pitch 4pm.

Brian Phillips is a longtime jock for the legendary Indi-rock ​station CD102.5.