Attention Baseball Geeks: MLB Hot Stove 12/27/2014 by Brian Phillips

2) What other deals looked good to you?

The White Sox are in the conversation all of the sudden eh! I've always loved Jeff Samardzija. David Robertson gives them a legit closer obviously. Melky Cabrera is a nice piece. Adam LaRoche isn't sexy, but he had a solid year for Washington (and for once didn't get off to a horrific start.)

As much as it pains me to admit it, I like what Miami has done. The Marlins have added in December Mat Latos, Michael Morse, Dee Gordon, Dan Haren, Martin Prado and David Phelps. Lump these guys with their stable of good young talent led by the Gioncarlo Stanton and all of the sudden you have a contender here. I'll never trust owner Jeffrey Loria, but I will pick Miami to vie for a playoff spot next season.

In Boston Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez arrive, but not without risk. The Sox have the right thought anyway pushing Hanley out to left and leaving the exciting young Xander Boegaerts at short. I like Rick Porcello for his extreme ground ball tilt at Fenway. Ditto Wade Miley. If the Sox get 2013 Justin Masterson they'll be thrilled. These guys better pitch well because it's anyone's guess as to what they'll get from Clay Buchholz after his horrid 2014.

I'm of two minds on San Diego. I'll give the Padres credit for making a lot of noise, but I'm not sure what to make of their noise. Matt Kemp reportedly has arthritic hips, and they sure gave up a lot of prospects for one year of Justin Upton. I doubt seriously he'll re-up to hit in spacious Petco Park. Getting Wil Myers from Tampa is fun, but you have to wonder about his being traded twice in two years. How's his wrist? The Padres are all in now, but with a load of right handed bats and not so good outfield defense.

Other deals of interest:

Uber leftie prospect Andrew Heaney went west to LA in the Dee Gordon/Dan Haren deal and then the Dodgers immediately flipped him down to the Angels for Howie Kendrick. I've always liked Kendrick, but Heaney has a chance to be special. 

Jon Lester to the Cubs gives them the number 1 they've needed since trading Samardzija. Adding Jason Motte isn't without risk, but he was lights out in 2012.

I like the Royals taking a chance on Kris Medlen. Yes he's coming off his second Tommy John, he'll be a bargain if he stays healthy.

The Mariners needed some right-handed wallup and Nelson Cruz brings that. I'm realistic though. He won't hit 40 playing for Seattle. 30? Perhaps. 

Toronto getting Josh Donaldson from Oakland was a nice. Sure the average was way down, but the third baseman still clubbed 29 home runs. He should go gangbusters up north.

St. Louis grabbing Jason Heyward from the Braves is a nice jolt for the Cards defense. I have a feeling they're going to get that power bat going again too.

One to watch:

In the Prado/Phelps to Miami deal the Yankees got hard throwing Nathan Eovaldi back. So far his career has been all about lighting up radar and not striking enough guys out. He is certainly a work in progress, but with a kid that throws as hard as he does..... We'll see. 

3) What deals left you scratching your head?

The deal Miami gave Giancarlo Stanton is bizarre. It's long, and heavily back loaded. Stanton has an opt out when he turns 30, but why would he bail for that kind of dough coming during his inevitable decline? He's not getting a new and better contract after he passes into his 30s. (I don't think anyway.) Whoever owns the Marlins will be paying Stanton a lot of money long after owner Loria is dead and in hell. 

Other than that.... It's not so much reservations as it is accepting that some teams are full on rebuilding. Oakland, Atlanta, and The Reds come to mind as clubs that seem to have already punted 2015. For Atlanta they are no doubt pushing for when their new park opens in 2017. And Oakland is just being Oakland. Billy Beane will always be looking for what he believes is the sell high for any player. 

I'm still waiting for the Yankees to do something big. Times have certainly changed. If the boss were still alive they'd pay whatever was necessary to bring in free agent ace Max Scherzer. His price tag is too much for the Yanks I'm reading. All that A. Rod money sitting on the books is a real drag on the budget.

4) Any significant fantasy ramifications?

With Robertson heading to the White Sox Dellin Betances is going to close for the Yankees. No one could hit him last year. He was phenomenal. That said guys are going to overpay like they do for closers all the time. If you're in a keeper league hopefully you stashed him away last year on the cheap. 

Don't pay Nelson Cruz for 40 home runs, but you knew that.

As I mentioned I'm intrigued by a change of scenery for Jason Heyward. 

Donaldson's price jumped.

Justin Upton will be a top five disappointment next season. 

Here's a cheap one dollar guy to profit on: The Mariners traded Michael Saunders to Toronto a couple of weeks ago. I've watched him for years, and yes while he's been a slow developing, injury prone disappointment, I can't help but feel there's a really good ballplayer in there. Keep an eye on him. 

5) As a Mariners fan, what do you make of their off season moves and how do you see the AL West shaping up in 2015?

Cruz will be a big boost. The best things they did though were the things they didn't do. The M's were in on all three Padres outfielders and that would have meant shipping off young pitching talent James Paxton and Tijuan Walker. The Mariners missed the playoffs by one game last year thanks to great pitching and defense. They still need to add another outfielder bat, but let's be smart about it. 

Tying up Kyle Seager long term was a no brainer. Make sure you watch him as much as you can next season. You probably knew he can hit, but 15 can flat out pick it too.

I really believe it'll be The Angels and Mariners going toe to toe in 2015. Oakland might have trouble finishing ahead of Houston believe it or not. The Rangers should be vastly improved just by vertue of having all those injured players back. 

Listen to Brian Phillips weekday afternoons on WWCD102.5 FM

Hot Stove Chatter. Reds and Indians. by Brian Phillips

Reds fans should be concerned by the complete lack of movement on the offensive front after last season's anemic output, and their starting staff is now worse with the exits of Mat Latos to Miami and Alfredo Simon to Detroit. 

The idea of trading Simon in and of itself isn't bad. 2014 was a high water mark without question for the journeyman. What they got in return though is a piddling young shortshop in Eugenio Suarez and underwelming A-ball pitcher Jonathan Crawford. 

The 23 year old Suarez appeared in 85 games for the big club last season and in 277 plate appearances whiffed almost 25% of the time. In 2012 Suarez was a top 15 prospect for Detroit, but their list was pretty weak that season. (Nick Castellanos was #1, and I don't see a future star there.) Suarez was rated then as a decent glove guy with a utility infielder ceiling. Not a lot to get excited about there.

Crawford was drafted in the first round by the Tigers in 2013. The 23 year old from The University of Florida pitched in A ball last year and posted decent numbers, but his walk and strike out rates at that low level indicate a cloudy future. 

The Latos deal looks like a salary dump to me. Sure there are concerns over health, but isn't that true of any pitcher (see Cueto)? In return the Marlins shipped a nice catching prospect in Chad Wallach and a mediocre rightie named Anthony Desclafani.  

The just turned 23 Wallach was a fifth round pick in 2013 out of baseball factory Cal-State Fullerton. He logged a walk rate in A ball last year that can only be described as Billy Beane porn. 62 walks to 46 k's is impressive at any level. He doesn't display any power to speak of, but scouts love his defense. Someday the Reds can trade him to Oakland.

Desclafani is on his third organization having arrived in Miami as part of that infamous trade with the Blue Jays back in 2013. He started five games for the Marlins last season, but scouts profile him out of the bullpen. In the Arizona Fall League just last month the clipboards were still looking for a supposed developing change up. Without that he's just another fastball/slider guy topping out at 91/94 with the heater. In a 33 inning big league sample last year Desclafani showed more fly ball tilt than you'd like for a guy going into Great American, and he gave up too much hard contact. He'll compete for a rotation job in the spring, but don't hold your breath.

Bottom Line? The Reds are worse off than they were when they packed up their gear in late September. Homer Bailey underwent surgery in September, and you just hold your breath with Cueto's durability long term. You have to be concerned as a Reds fan.

The Indians off season has been pretty simple by comparison. The Indians acquired slugging OF/1B Brandon Moss from the A's in exchange for AA second baseman Joey Wendle on December 8th. The Tribe are loaded with young middle infielders so giving up Wendle isn't a big deal. 

Brandon Moss is Nick Swisher with more pop. Both hit righties better than lefties though Swish is a switch hitter. I'm sure they're both fun to drink beer with so there's that. Moss is going to strike out a ton, hit 25 or so home runs and drive you nuts when he goes 0 for a week here and there. 

And on Tuesday the Indians signed veteran starter Gavin Floyd to a one year 4 million dollar deal. Floyd's only season in Atlanta last year was shortened by injury. You can't really call him an innings eater as he failed to reach 200 in his final four years with the White Sox. The money is right though and if they can give him to the ball 30 times in 2015 they'll look at him as a bargain. Floyd essentially replaces the departed Justin Masterson in the rotation. Masterson was always a bit hard to figure anyway.

The Tribe could be pretty good this year if they get bounce backs from Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana and Swisher. All had disappointing seasons and yet the Indians hung around to the end. 

Brian Phillips is the afternoon jock at the legendary Indie radio blowtorch WWCD102.5. He knows a thing or two about a thing or two. 

More Fat On The Hot Stove Fire by Brian Phillips

Football is done. The world's most expensive figure skating competition is on. I see the Arizona Diamondbacks have already gathered the pitchers and catchers. More will follow this week. Never has an opening day been needed more. It's been a long, cold winter. Time for a tall boy and a few more fir logs for the hot stove. 

Braves Re-Up Freeman

8 years/135 million for the 24 year old first baseman. Another budding star locked up before hitting the open market. No brainer. Nice young player. 

D-Backs Ink Arroyo

Two years/$23.5 million. The park doesn't exactly fit his fly ball tendencies, but then Bronson Arroyo has never pitched in a home park that fits his fly ball tendencies. Arizona has a young staff and the 36 year old Arroyo is an unflappable pros pro. I like it. You know what you're going to get, durable as hell. Put him down for 200 innings. 

Did You Know....

Yankee signing Masahiro Tanaka threw 160 pitches in game 6 of the Japanese World Series last fall, and then closed game 7? In his career Tanaka has fifteen 130 plus pitch count starts. In the last five years, all of major league baseball has 23 such starts. Japanese starters are abused. 

The Mariners Are Dumb

A couple of months ago I scoffed at the notion that the Mariners would sign Robinson Cano. This was mostly predicated on the thoughts that: 1. Cano would hate losing. 2. The Mariners would hate paying someone a ton of money. 3. Jay Z could hardly stand for his first major sports client to be anywhere but New York.

Well I was wrong. Sure Cano is a great player, but I don't trust the M's to surround him with enough good players to make the investment worthwhile (although Cano is good for ten years of bobble head nights I suppose.) 

The Mariners Are Smart

I like the Scott Baker signing. Low dollars for an effective major league starter coming off Tommy John. Low risk, high possible upside. 

The Mariners Are Dumb

Two years and 14 million for Fernando Rodney? Sure he had a 2012 for the ages in Tampa, but I told you a year ago he'd regress. That's exactly what he did led by a serious return of his old nemesis the base on balls. Seattle was in need of more depth in the pen, but getting yourself locked up for two years with a 37 year old who walks too many people is no way to spend your dough. I'm guessing Danny Farquhar (acquired from the Yankees in the Ichiro salary dump) will be back in the 9th by July. 

You Can't Kill...

Bruce Chen. (Resigned with the Kansas City)

Jack Cust (minor league invited by Baltimore)

Grady Sizemore (major league deal with Boston)

You Can Get Rid Of

The truly awful Yuniesky Bettancourt. He'll be very happy in Japan with the Orix Bluewave this summer!

Brian Phillips is the afternoon DJ at the world's greatest radio station, WWCD 102.5 FM

Throwing Fat On The Hot Stove Fire by Brian Phillips

It's not even the winter meetings yet and players are flying all over the place. Let's try to get a quick handle on a very active early hot stove season. 

Jacoby Ellsbury Reportedly To Yanks

Pending a physical, the now ex-Red Sox outfielder heads to the Bronx at a reported seven years and $153 million. Ellsbury is a nice player and should see a power jump in tiny Yankee Stadium. That said, he's never hitting 32 home runs (2011) again. Seven years is long contract for a 31 year old, and one wonders if Scott Boras has once again talked someone into negotiating with themselves. 

Ellsbury's signing might cast doubt on the return of Robinson Cano, but if they could talk him down on the years a bit... The Yankees need to improve their rotation as well. Lots of moving parts here... and lots of money. If the Boss were still alive this would already be sorted, right?

(Also I should note that the Yankees inking former Braves catcher Brian McCann last week is a no-brainer. Instant vast improvement over the sad sacks they had behind the dish in 2013.)

Mariners/Cano Use Each Other. It's Sad Really

The Tweets came fast and furious Tuesday afternoon from the Pacific Northwest. "Mariners all in on Cano" etc. This is utter bullshit. Cano needs someone to feign interest in signing him for the 7 or 8 or 10 years he's demanding from the Yanks and the Mariners need to look like they're doing something. Hopefully the dopes in the front office are at least aware that Cano is in on the gag. I don't think it's at all coincidental that this pops up the day after the Seahawks plastered the Saints on Monday Night Football. No one is talking about the Mariners in Seattle.

Wednesday some muscle was added to this skeleton with reports Cano had stopped over in Seattle for the big sales push. They should have brought him in Monday so he could see the Seahawks. At least he would have had a good time.

Whoever this guy is put it pretty well: 

Brandon Jacobs ‏@brandon_jacobz1h

Yankees will end up with Cano. You don't sign with Jay-Z to go play in Seattle and endorse raincoats.

The raincoat line is predictable, but the sentiment is probably smart. Jay-Z isn't going to see his first major sports client sign with the Seattle Mariners. No way.

(The other day I was laughing at my team when I learned the M's had brought back 36 year old utility infielder Willie Bloomquist at two years and $5.3 million. As one analyst put it to me via Twitter on Monday (to paraphrase) 'Bloomquist is a not-good version of Nick Punto.' Can't wait for the bobblehead night!)

Meanwhile in Oakland 

It's never dull watching the Athletics. While you were stuffing your pie hole and watching college football over the weekend GM Billy Beane was working on reinventing his bullpen. This week Oakland traded failed first round second baseman Jemile Weeks to the Orioles for closer Jim Johnson and then Tuesday shipped fourth outfielder Seth Smith to San Diego for set-up man Luke Gregerson. 

With Beane you have to think several steps ahead. Mr. Moneyball doesn't give a crap about closers. He let the effective Grant Balfour walk this off season because Balfour wanted more dough. Beane knows it doesn't matter who closes as long as he's not paying him a lot and the guy is good at his job. Sure Johnson is going to pull $6.5 million this year and his middling strike-out rate makes me wonder, but I'm guessing Beane wouldn't be adverse to flipping him. The 9th inning ball could then go to the effective Gregerson or holdover Ryan Cooke, for that matter. Bottom line: Johnson won't be in Oakland beyond 2014. 

An intriguing signing out in the East Bay came over the weekend when the A's gave resurrected starter Scott Kazmir two years and 22 million bucks. This is huge risk for Oakland at that price. Kazmir was out of baseball not that long ago, and while he enjoyed a nice rebound in velocity with Cleveland last year, I'd be a bit hesitant to commit that much money. I'm going to assume they've done their homework, however, because the A's don't make a habit of doing stupid things. Look for Oakland to intensify efforts to trade lefty Brett Anderson now. I love this kid's arm, but he just can't stay healthy. 

Motown Makeover

Fascinating what's gone down in Detroit of late. First Prince Fielder got shipped to Texas for second baseman Ian Kinsler and then Tuesday starter Doug Fister was traded to Washington for infielder Steve Lombardozzi and a couple of relievers. The Tigers finished the day by finally signing the closer they couldn't find last year in ex-Ranger and Twin Joe Nathan. 

I'm not really sure what the end-game is in Detroit, as I keep hearing the Tigers are shopping Cy Young award winner Max Scherzer as well. Scherzer's deal is up after 2014 and he's going to command a huge payday. 

Elsewhere

In a three-team deal the Rays acquired catcher Ryan Hanigan from the Reds and reliever Heath Bell from Arizona. Hanigan is the kind of well-regarded defensive player Tampa Bay covets. He can throw out runners and frame those pitches. Hanigan is a better hitter than he showed last year, too. Bell meanwhile seems washed up, but after the 2012 the Rays squeezed out of Fernando Rodney I'm going to give it time. 

Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria showed baseball he's not the tightwad portrayed in the media, signing Red Sox catcher Jarod Saltalamacchia to a 3 year, 21 million dollar pact. After all, those extra jersey letters ain't free! 

The Sox countered with another hard-to-spell signing, inking veteran A.J. Pierzynski to a one year deal. Combining A.J. with solid veteran back up David Ross gives the Sox a nice backstop situation for the year. 

Wednesday, news broke that Colorado was nearing a pact with Justin Morneau. I love this pairing. Morneau's value just went up in fantasy drafts. Expect to see a long-awaited power rebound for the once robust Morneau.

And earlier this week those Rockies shipped speedy outfielder Dexter Fowler to the Astros for pitcher Jordan Lyles and outfielder Brandon Barnes. Houston may have gotten themselves a nice steal here. Fowler saw a dip in batting average in 2013, but his peripheral numbers held up pretty well for the most part. Barnes isn't a prospect and Lyles better improve his ground ball rate or he's going to get killed even worse than he did in Houston. 

Brian Phillips is a DJ at CD102.5 in Columbus, Ohio. He knows a thing or two about a thing or two.