NBA Conference Finals Mailbag

What better way to usher in these exciting Conference Finals than to answer the questions on the people’s minds. Thanks to all that submitted on Twitter @bengalli33

Where are the Lakers? - Jerry W., Supreme Court, Washington D.C.

Even with rent prices rising, the Lakers still continue to live rent free in a lot of your heads. Sure they were an embarrassment this year but the main culprit was obviously injuries as their Big 3 only played 21 games together. We still don’t truly know if they could have contended when healthy. LeBron missed 26 games, Anthony Davis missed 42 games, and their 6th man (Kendrick Nunn) missed the entire year. It was so bad the Lakers had 41 different starting lineups (2nd only to Brooklyn) and practiced approximately 25 times the entire season?! But the question was where the Lakers are, not where they could have been. So after a quick perusal of various social media accounts of the 5 Lakers presumably under contract for next year I can confidently report:

LeBron James - Family vacation in Maldives, beautiful islands in the Indian Ocean. Prime spot.
Russell Westbrook - Son’s 5th birthday party celebrations, various locations in Los Angeles. Also at The Met.
Anthony Davis - Hopefully on a quest to discover something that will make him less brittle.
Talen Horton-Tucker - Unknown but hopefully working hard on his game somewhere.
Kendrick Nunn - Son’s 5th birthday party in early April, has disappeared since then (much like the season).

Whom does Chris Paul compare to with respect to historical point guards?  He is not Magic or Isaiah.  Is he comparable to John Stockton, Gary Payton, or Steve Nash? Sleepy Floyd? - Eric “Sleepy” Floyd, North Carolina Greg D., Sandusky, Ohio

It’s hard to compare Chris Paul to Magic or Isiah Thomas, the latter of whom his statistics compare favorably to, because he didn’t win titles.  But I think for most contemporary basketball folks, Paul is solidly in there as the third maybe fourth best point guard ever.  And that’s considering point guard in its traditional sense which separates him from players like Oscar Robertson and Steph Curry (and Jerry West) who played that position at times but are known more for shooting and scoring.  He’s probably better than John Stockton and Gary Payton.  Payton might be better known for his defense but Paul has 7 All Defensive 1st Teams of his own and there are few players who scored more efficiently from the mid range in NBA history.  Steve Nash was a better shooter but that’s about it.  Paul surpasses him just about everywhere else.  And Sleepy Floyd was awesome but…..    

Is Luka enough for a title this year? - Cark Muban, Dallas, Texas

I think the common sense would tell you no but the last time a “One Superstar” team won the title was 2011 with the Dallas Mavericks and Dirk Nowitzki.  Take a look at that team’s roster and note the production breakdown similarities with this current Mavs team.  Lots of secondary guys providing 10-15 points per game with a couple defensive minded role players. 

Now the Mavs defense is gonna have their hands full with this Warriors team but Luka Doncic is Dat Dude and he’s already proven this year and last that he can go toe to toe with the most talented teams the West at least can offer.  He simply cannot be counted out.  

Will any Heat v. Celtics game hit a 200 over? - Bett McGamblerson, Las Vegas, Nevada

Both teams averaged well above 100 points per game over the regular season this year.  But head to head over their 3 regular season matchups (where Boston had the edge 2-1), the Celtics averaged 105 and Miami averaged 92.  Both of these teams are going to take a lot of 3’s which are lower percentage shots and in the playoffs defense intensifies and more players choke.  Also it is important to note that teams play at a slower pace in the playoffs so less points are usually scored and the unders have traditionally won more than overs in recent history.  But having said all that, with Boston having 111 ppg and Miami 109 during the regular season, I’m confident saying most games in this series will hit over 200 points.  As the saying goes:  “Life’s too short to bet the under”. Also, I immediately regret this answer. This is not gambling advice. 

Should more people believe in the Heat? - Owen G., Columbus, Ohio

One word:  Pat Riley.  Since the Boston Celtics beat the Houston Rockets for the NBA Championship in 1986, here’s what the Celtics have done on the NBA Finals stage:  3 Finals Appearances, 1 Win.  Here’s what teams led by Pat Riley either as head coach or executive have done over that same time period:  10 Finals Appearances, 5 Wins.  So yes more people should believe in the Heat especially as this team is just one year removed from a Finals appearance.  They also have home court advantage and should be getting Kyle Lowry back relatively soon (out since April 22nd with a hamstring strain).  Add to this that the Heat have perhaps the coach most widely considered the best in the NBA as Gregg Popovich’s career winds down and I actually give them the advantage in this series.  

Do you feel there is still tension between Coach Spo/Haslem and Jimmy Butler?  And do you feel the on-court kerfuffle created division in the locker room? And who would be let go first, Butler or Spoelstra? - Czarnic, Calgary, Alberta

The beautiful thing about a strong culture is you can overcome just about anything with it.  The Heat culture is about family, responsibility, accountability, and toughness.  What teams might not be able to get over in Philadelphia or Los Angeles isn’t a problem in South Beach.  The nature of high level competition means tensions and emotions flare and in Miami you buy into the concept of family and being all in so in the end it’s brothers just being brothers.  What the Heat have shown me over the playoffs is that the drama that unfolded during a game in March between Jimmy Butler and Erik Spoelstra/Udonis Haslem will not be a problem for them and it’s just something that probably semi-frequently happens in the locker room and practice that just happened to be caught on camera.  As far as who to keep?  Spoelstra has been a Riley disciple for a long time and has been a great coach for a decade in the NBA already so I think although it would never happen due to their specific culture, they would pick Spo over Jimmy pretty easily. 

In this interview with Cari Champion (you’re welcome Czarnic), Udonis Haslem explains the Heat culture beautifully in the first minutes.

Most important bench player in each series? - B. Choco, Columbus, OH

Celtics-Heat:  Duncan Robinson.  You would think a player that shot 53% from 3 in the first round will find some time on the court in the Conference Finals.  But Robinson is also the choice here because if he barely plays as he did in the 2nd round against the 76ers and the Heat lose, that will always and forever be brought up.  Robinson has defensive liabilities which is apparently why he didn’t play against Philly and it is yet to be seen if Heat coach Erik Spoelstra has the same concern against the Celtics.  But the Heat will need to score against the Celtics top rated defense and match the Celtics prowess shooting the 3.  Not playing Robinson might be the liability this time.

Dallas-Golden State: Spencer Dinwiddie. The Mavs are going to need all the help they can get and Spencer Dinwiddie may be the best equipped to give them that third guy after Doncic and Brunson. Bitcoin Jesus is a steady, consistent player that can erupt in opportune moments much like he did in Game 7 against the Suns. He’s also a smart defender and can help with the Warriors ridiculous plethora of wing shooting but more importantly can answer on his own offensively. Now might be the time to buy stock in him.

Who is your starting 5 of all players left?

Luka is already a legend and Steph has been one for some time now.  I’d probably add Jayson Tatum, Draymond Green, and Bam Adebayo to field a pretty all around great team that would be a tough matchup for anybody with that frontcourt helping mitigate any defensive issues encountered with the backcourt.

G - Luka Doncic
G - Steph Curry
F - Jayson Tatum
F - Draymond Green
C - Bam Adebayo

Can Klay Thompson be the pre-injury Klay again or have we seen his pinnacle with Jordan Poole emerging as a young scorer? As much as I enjoyed seeing him in an Aaliyah T-shirt on the bench, how crucial is it for Boston to have Robert Williams on the court against Bam and the Heat? - Nic M., Columbus, Ohio

I think I’ve heard that it takes a full 2nd season after a major knee injury to see how well an athlete comes back from it.  Klay has been inconsistent this year and not been up to his own pre-injury standards.  But Jordan Poole, a late first round pick 3 years ago that got time to develop in the G League for a couple has come on very strong with the Warriors much to the horror of the rest of the NBA.  Another perfect draft pick by them.  His defense doesn’t compare to Klay’s but if Thompson can’t get back to that level of defensive play next year I can see him being moved somewhere else like the Lakers (where his dad played and he was born).  As for the second question, I don’t know how crucial it is cause I think the Celtics stand a good chance without him but if he were playing it might be too much for Miami to overcome offensively.  I would say him playing won’t decide the series however, if that makes sense. 

Are these imposters just keeping the seat warm for eventual 2023 champs and perpetual dynasty, the Cavs? - Patrick M., Cleveland, OH

Here’s the best most complimentary thing I can say about these Cleveland Cavaliers that should give all fans much hope.  These are not your “cousin that was infatuated with LeBron”’s Cavaliers.  The culture seems to have completely changed since the last days of LeBron and Kyrie.  Kudos to Koby Altman.  Since the tough season ending loss to the Hawks in the last Eastern Conference Play In Game, no less than 3 stalwart Cavs have expressed their desire to be in Cleveland.  I’m not sure if that’s ever happened before.  Collin Sexton, breakout All Star Darius Garland who loves playing there, and the ravishing Ricky Rubio have all indicated a strong interest in returning to The Land. It’s possible even Kyrie wants to come back! Now, they’re all also maneuvering for contract money but it was obvious in the past that players didn’t want to come to or stay in Cleveland.  That has changed, and in two years Evan Mobley should be a bonafide superstar setting the stage for the Cavs to be a true force in the Eastern Conference sooner than later.

When was the last year the NBA had this balanced of a final four? - Adam S., New York, New York

A good question Mr. Silver.  This is definitely the most wide open it has been in a long time.  These are the top 3 teams in terms of defensive efficiency ratings with Dallas being number 6.  Good offense always beats good defense is a long time basketball adage but to win championships, you’re gonna need good defense to have a chance.  As far as the last time it was this balanced of a final four?  I had to go back to the pre Superteams era and came up with good old 2006 with the Miami Heat, Detroit Pistons, Dallas Mavericks, and Phoenix Suns.  That was the 7 Seconds or Less Suns team that had lost Amar’e Stoudemire for the season early in the year and the last year of those Ben Wallace Pistons teams.  The Finals of course were Dwyane Wade’s coming out party as the Heat came back from down 2-0 to win in 6 against the Mavericks in a series where the refereeing was called into question (surprise, surprise).  That Heat team also included NBA legends Shaquille O’Neal, Alonzo Mourning, Gary Payton, and Jason Kapono. 

Who are the best ten players left playing ranked in order? - Colin G., Columbus, Ohio

These are not all time rankings but rather who I would take if I were creating a team to win right now (not necessarily the future even).

10.  Jordan Poole
9.  Jalen Brunson
8.  Draymond Green
7.  Klay Thompson
6.  Jimmy Butler
5.  Jaylen Brown
4.  Bam Adebayo
3.  Steph Curry
2.  Jayson Tatum
1.  Luka Doncic

Finals Predictions

My brain says Celtics-Warriors and my heart says Heat-Mavs.  I don’t want to pick against Luka and this looks like it could be the moment where Luka reaches LeBron levels. Speaking for myself,  there are few players that have ever been more fun to watch than Luka Doncic.  An incredible playmaker who makes his teammates better and has become unguardable offensively as a 6’7 240 pound unstoppable force. All at just 23 years old.  The man is incredible and on top of that he’s tough and a leader who just wants to win.  Really everything you want in a great.  But the Warriors have a team that’s been there, done that so many times that even though I’ll be rooting against them as usual, they’ll need to actually lose 4 games before I can count them out.  

In the East it’s a match up of two very good coaches and two strong, tough-nosed teams that exhibit pride and effort on defense and will never give up.  Replacing Brad Stevens who could never get over the hump for unproven as a head coach Ime Udoka seems like a stroke of genius.  Red Auerbach must be smoking a cigar in his grave.  But I can only envision his long time rival smoking one when this series is over and done. 

Heat over Celtics in 7
Warriors over Mavs in 6

Warriors over Heat in 7

MVP: Steph Curry