Colin: In 2017 Penn State had a 4th Quarter win percentage of 93.1% and in 2018, 96.7% but lost both games to the Buckeyes. How different would history look if they had won those two games?
Baver: Urban’s health problems would have started a lot earlier. (I’m only half-kidding in saying that.) Simply flipping the wins to losses for Ohio St means the Buckeyes wouldn’t have won the Big Ten East either year. That wouldn’t fly in Columbus, as fans here are quite so understanding of short-comings. As for Penn St, they would have likely made the 2017 playoff. PSU had also capitalized on their 2016 upset of Ohio St with top-15 recruiting classes each of the next three years. Had Penn St won the ’17 and ’18 games as well, James Franklin would have parlayed that into even bigger recruiting gains, and done so at OSU’s expense. Even if I am overstating the effect here, I can guarantee you that the phrase, “There’s a new sheriff in town” would have been directed at Ohio St fans countless times over the past 12 months. And THAT would have driven Buckeye Nation insane.
Colin: Having said that about the last two games, I feel like this year the Nittany Lions are headed to the woodshed, why should I believe their 2019 squad can compete with the Buckeyes?
Baver: Only once in the last five seasons has this game been decided by more than a touchdown, while each of the last three games was decided by 3 pts or less. So, OSU is an 18½-pt favorite? They were 19-pt favorites in 2016 and lost.
But I am playing devil’s advocate to simply answer your question. You can argue that Penn St was fortunate to get W’s against Pitt, UM, and IU. The Buckeyes on the other hand have steam-rolled every opponent on their schedule. If Penn St’s do-everything guy KJ Hamler can’t go Saturday, you have to wonder where the Nits points are going to come from.
Colin: Okay...sounds like we are on the same page which isn’t always the case. So give me your full take on this one.
Baver: I’ve predicted tight games with Penn St each of the past 3 years, but I’m guessing this one isn’t so close. The PSU corners (Reid and Castro-Fields) have been torched the past 2 weeks, and are not up to normal DB standards in Happy Valley. Gopher QB Tanner Morgan vs PSU was18 for 20, 339 yards, 3 TDs, no picks. Hoosier QB Peyton Ramsey was 31 for 41, a career-high 371 yds, no picks, and he lost his top WR in the first half of the game. Ryan Day will obviously look to exploit the matchups against the Nittany Lion corners. Penn St is however holding opponents to the lowest per-play, rushing yard average in the country, allowing just 2.2 yds per rush. Still, OSU piled up 323 yds on the ground against Sparty, and 264 against the Badgers, both of whom came into Ohio Stadium with top-5 ranked rush D’s. While I think Penn St’s rush D will fare a bit better, I still expect OSU to eclipse 200 yds on the ground. As for PSU’s front seven, it goes without saying that they need DEs Yetur Gross-Matos and Shaka Toney to return to early season form. And honestly, they need all hands on deck against Fields, Dobbins and company.
On the other side of the ball, WR/KR/PR KJ Hamler was the #1 difference maker in last year’s game until Ohio St scored twice late to steal the win. Hamler left the IU game with a possible head injury. Will he play Saturday? Regardless, Penn St needs TBs Journey Brown and Noah Cain (health pending, as well) to tote the load, and will need QB Sean Clifford’s athleticism to extend plays. And if I am PSU OC Ricky Rahne, I’d more often want to take my chances against OSU’s run D. The alternative is testing the Buckeye corners through the air which requires simultaneously dealing with Chase Young and OSU’s athletic front. That is a tall task.
Heavy rains could make this more interesting, but I have this one: Ohio St 41 Penn St 20.
Colin: Okay, before we go.... Obviously this Buckeye team had better not be looking at the point spread and thinking about playoff opponents, but you and I of course can afford that luxury. Who does Ohio State want or not want in the CFB playoff?
Baver: I said early on when Clemson didn’t look as good as expected that Dabo would have this team ready to go come playoff time. I think they are more than ready now. Haven’t played anybody? Shouldn’t matter, as they’ve been to the playoff four straight years...and they certainly weren’t intimidated in postseason games against Bama and Ohio St when those two schools were the top programs in CFB.
If OSU gets in, and draws a team other than Clemson or LSU in the semi, that would be a big break in my mind. OSU-Clemson I think would be a dog fight, and OSU-LSU possibly would be as well. Other than those two, I’d feel pretty good about OSU matching up against any of the other potential playoff teams.
--Brent Baver and Colin Gawel, Pencil Storm 2019