Colin: Bucks #1 in the first playoff ranking. I know your own top 4 for the playoff ended up being the same as the actual ranking.... meanwhile the AP and coaches’ polls had OSU #3 and #4. Your thoughts?
Baver: Right now, Ohio St deserves the top spot over LSU. They Buckeyes have dominated opponents more so than the other top dogs, and their 8-game schedule has been tougher than that of every other undefeated team. Bama and Clemson have similar SOS rankings, but Bama hasn’t been challenged like Clemson was against a bad UNC team. So yeah, OSU at #1, LSU at #2, and Bama at #3 makes sense. And with Penn St’s wins over Iowa and Michigan, that got them in the #4 slot ahead of Clemson...again, the right call by the committee.
The committee has never really cared where the AP and coaches rank teams. Clemson is top 4 in both the AP and Coaches Poll, and I think the committee asked each other, “Why? Because they won the title last year?” We are two months into the 2019 season....it’s the 2019 body of work that should be evaluated, which is why the committee waits until November to release a ranking.
Of course, the LSU-Bama winner will be #1 next week, so OSU’s #1 ranking will be short lived, and Clemson will be top 4 next week after they roll over NC State.
Colin: Seems to be lots of chatter in Columbus that as long as Ohio State wins the Big Ten Championship, they could survive a loss at Michigan and still make the playoffs. Is that wishful thinking?
Baver: That’s definitely a possibility if that’s OSU’s only loss. I think a 12-1 OSU team would still have a decent chance of trumping a 12-1 conference winner from the Big 12 or Pac 12.
Colin: This Buckeye team was on fire heading into the 2nd bye week of the season. Is there any fear that the time off followed by two inferior opponents will take the edge off how well they have been playing?
Baver: I fear that this Buckeye team could have peaked too soon, but I don’t think the layoff or inferior competition is too much concern. And when they get supplanted from their #1 slot by the Bama-LSU winner, that should provide a bit of motivation.
Colin: Last year the turtle torched the bullets to the tune of 51 points. Do you think they studied that film on the break and what should we expect this year?
Baver: They may have spent some time on last year’s game film, but a year ago it was Greg Schiano’s defense against Matt Canada’s offense. Those guys have moved on, and OSU’s margin of victory in this one will be much closer to Vegas’ 43½-pt spread than OSU’s 1-pt win at Maryland last November. This game has blowout written all over it; I’ve got it Ohio St 55 Maryland 7.
Colin: Around the Big Ten, is this the biggest home football game in Minnesota history? Can the Gophers get it done? Does it even matter?
Baver: It’s the biggest game I can remember. You have to go back to 1941 to find a Gopher team that started 8-0. PJ Fleck has done an unbelievable job so far, with Minnesota’s ascent being similar to the quick rise WMU saw under Fleck in Kalamazoo. Does it matter? Minnesota’s SOS rating is somewhere around 80th best in the country, so you have to take that 8-0 record with a grain of salt. I like Penn St laying the 6½ here. Too much talent differential.
Colin: Meanwhile Joe Burrow vs Saban in Tuscaloosa this Saturday at 3:30. Thoughts on that game and playoff implications for the loser.
Baver: The average total points scored per game over the last 5 Bama-LSU games is 30.6, yet the over/under for this game is 63. LSU finally has a big-time offense, and they’ve tailored it to match Burrow’s skill set. And this Tide defense hasn’t been up to typical Bama standards with injuries taking their toll. Will Tua play, and if so, will be slowed by that ankle? Obviously, that’s key. Bama’s wide receivers are far better than any other group in the country, and I think that’s also key in this one. But I don’t think I’d lay 6½ here unless I was pretty sure Tua was close to 100%.
I saw a prop bet a few days ago giving odds on the loser of the LSU-Bama game making the playoff. The odds basically translated to the loser of this game having a 30% chance of making the playoff. I don’t necessarily have a problem with that happening, especially if we see 2-loss teams winning power conference title games.
—Brent Baver and Colin Gawel