Colin: What could this Buckeye team have been working on in an off week before facing Northwestern as 28 point favorites?
Baver: Ohio St was called for 10 penalties against Michigan St, so certain fundamentals may have been a focus. MSU also exposed some flaws in OSU’s ability to defend intermediate passes, as Brian Lewerke hit wide open receivers several times against OSU. And the Buckeyes are 88th in the country in sack % allowed, despite the O-line being pretty solid in pass protection so far this year. That’s on Fields, but you obviously can’t come down too hard on Justin, as he’s still blowing away enormous expectations.
Colin: Is there any chance Northwestern pulls the upset or can I just skip to another question?
Baver: N’Western has lost 39 straight against Top-5 teams, their last win coming in 1959. And their offense is dead last in the country this season in yards per play. On the flip side, Pat Fitzgerald teams almost always start slow, but play their best football after September, and they never quit. NW hung with Wisconsin, losing only 24-15. They held UW to 243 yds total offense and gained 21 first downs to Wisc’s 13. A week later the Wildcats held Nebraska to 13 pts & 12 first downs. N’Western has little chance of winning tomorrow night, but they could get OSU’s offense out of sorts, much like Sparty did early on. Both ESPN’s FPI power ratings and Bill Connelly’s SP+ power ratings list Northwestern as having a better defense than Michigan St’s. Still, NW won’t be able to shut down the Buckeye offense for an entire game, and their own offense is completely outmanned against Ohio St’s D. I have OSU winning, but N’Western covering the spread. I’ve got it: OSU 34 N’Western 10.
Colin: Am I crazy or does Michigan have a chance to beat Penn State this weekend and shake up the Big Ten East?
Baver: While UM could very well pull the upset at home against Notre Dame a week from Saturday, they are just not the same team when they leave Ann Arbor. Michigan has been blown out in their last three big gms away from home (OSU, Fla & Wisc) by an average score of 48-20. This Nittany Lion team is also far more athletic than any team UM has faced this year. Then, there is the white-out they have to deal with, and Penn St is 8-0 vs the spread in its last 8 night games in Beaver Stadium. Does UM have a chance? Yeah....I just don’t think it’s a very good one. Still, when I disagree with you, you often end up being right.
Colin: Meanwhile, Bucky Badger coming in with a head of steam for the game next weekend in the Shoe. Are they a legit playoff squad?
Baver: The Badgers are now ranked 6th and that seems about right to me. I don’t think they are quite on par with Ohio St, Oklahoma or LSU, but UW are capable of winning in the ‘Shoe and are certainly a playoff contender. Their D has posted 4 shutouts in 6 gms, and it’s pretty scary that Jonathan Taylor had only 80 yds on 26 carries last week, yet Wisconsin still hammered Michigan St 38-0. Getting WR Quintez Cephus back was huge, and QB Jack Coan is a major upgrade from Alex Hornibrook.
Colin: Georgia bites it against the Cocks. Too soon thoughts on playoffs?
Baver: Bama, Clemson, Ohio St, & Oklahoma I think are the best 4 teams in the country, and also the four teams most likely to get in based on remaining schedules. I don’t see LSU winning at Alabama, and I think a potential rematch of Wisc-OSU indoors, in Indy on the fast-track, definitely favors Ohio St. Oregon and Utah both still have a fighting chance. I wouldn’t rule Georgia out yet, and I’m not completely ruling out Notre Dame. Penn St, Michigan, Florida and Auburn probably face too many obstacles to get in, although Penn St is still undefeated, so they may have some room for error.
Colin: What other games / lines will you be watching this weekend?
Baver: We talked about UM in Happy Valley already...I like the Nits laying the 9 pts. And I like the situational spot with Florida playing to avoid a 2nd straight loss, facing a Will Muschamp South Carolina team that should come back to reality after upsetting Georgia. I like the Gators -5 on the road.
Back to the Buckeyes....I’ve correctly had OSU covering the past three games, but with the injury problems at the OT position (Munford-game time decision, Josh Alabi-out), and with N’Western’s defense playing lights out, I wouldn’t lay the 4 TDs in Evanston. Yet that 28-pt spread doesn’t seem to be too far off.