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1) The Browns over/under on wins is 8. Would you bet the over/under and why?
The Ice Cube - It's looking like a push, at 8 wins. Here is the 10,000 foot view. Not only has the coaching staff changed, but a huge chunk of the roster, particularly on defense, has changed from 2019's Hindenburg-esque campaign. The team should put up points with a new offensive system and potent arsenal of skilled-position players. On the other side of the ball, the defense has a lot of good athletes, but the unit is hindered by inexperience and injury.
On offense, the team will look a lot different from last year. The base set will feature two tight ends, with a wide zone run game that will be used to set up more of a play-action passing game. There is even a fullback on the team this year, a position that was not on the roster in 2019. Last year, despite having one of the premier running backs in the NFL in Nick Chubb, Freddie Kitchens preferred to run 5-wideout sets, relying on under-performing tackles to protect Baker Mayfield. This year, look for more reliance on Chubb and Kareem Hunt as the primary offensive weapons. The success of the running game should set up the pass. The team has updated the line, too. They signed right tackle Jack Conklin, who made the All-Pro team as a rookie with the Titans in 2016, and drafted Jedrick Wills out of Alabama with the 10th pick in this year's draft to anchor the left side. As Big$ will tell you, JC Tretter has to stay healthy at center, and he is upgraded to "questionable" for the opener, but there is more depth on the line this year compared to the last few. On the outside, keep in mind that Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham, Jr., both played with injuries for most of last year that required surgery in the offseason. At full strength, they should have better seasons, and they will open up the middle of the field for possibly the best corps of tight ends in the league. The Browns signed Austin Hooper away from Atlanta, where he had more than 70 catches in each of the last two years. Harrison Bryant, who is a rookie out of Florida Atlantic, has worked his way into the TE2 slot, and red zone specialist David Njoku is available as the third tight end. There are just too many offensive threats for any defense to cover.
I think the struggles will be on defense. Back from a 6-game suspension for playing the carnival "Test-o-Strength" game with Mason Rudolph's head and helmet on national TV, Miles Garrett is leading a defensive line that should be improved this year assuming Sheldon Richardson, Olivier Vernon and (unsung grinder) Larry Ogunjobi stay healthy. The team also added depth by signing veteran DE Adrian Clayborn, who has 36.5 career sacks. If DBs Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams stay on the field, the corners should be strong, too. That is a big "if" because Williams appears to be missing the opener against the Ravens with a shoulder injury. There is some thinness at this position, as backup corner Kevin Johnson is also out as he recovers from a lacerated liver. The biggest questions are at linebacker and safety. At linebacker, the team let Pro-Bowler Joe Schoebert walk in free agency and cut Christian Kirksey, who missed most of last year with injury. Second year backer Mack Wilson finished second on the team in tackles last year and was in line to play a big part in the scheme of new Defensive Coordinator Joe Woods, who helped build the 49ers dominant defense last year. Wilson, though, hurt his knee in the preseason and is out for at least the first few games of the year. In his absence, the D will rely on Sione Takitaki and B.J. Goodson in the middle of the field. They are big and physical linebackers that need to show they can fill the passing lanes, as well as the running lanes. At safety, the Browns pretty much cleared the room after the end of last year. They drafted ballhawk Grant Delpit out of LSU in the 2nd round of the draft, but he ruptured his Achilles tendon in practice and is out for the season. Late in training camp, they acquired the Jags starting safety Ronnie Harrison to fill that gap. If Harrison can pick up on Woods' system quickly, that will be a huge boost to getting the season off on the right foot.
When it comes to wins and losses, in the division, they still have the Ravens, who finished 14-2 last year, as well as the Steelers, who have Big Ben back under center and a very good D. They also have road games against the Titans and Cowboys, and home games against the Eagles and Texans, all of which are far short of locks. Luckily, they also have games against Washington, Jets, Giants, Jaguars, and a pair against Cincy.
The pros and cons of the roster seem just as balanced as the (prospectively) good and bad teams on the schedule. It adds up to a .500 season.
Big$ - Honestly, I believe JC Tretter's WAR is 3 at this point. Browns Fans should be familiar with how bad the loss of a center can be after losing Alex Mack a few years back. Nick Harris was a serviceable late round depth pick, but has no business starting for an NFL team this year. If he's forced into significant action, I am all over the under. If JC stays healthy, I think they can narrowly surpass the number, but this linebacker corps is not capable of producing double digit wins.
2) How far did Freddie Kitchens set this franchise back last year and is there hope for rapid improvement under a legitimate head coach?
Big$ - At a minimum, 1-2 years, If Baker never bounces back we are back on the 5 year plan. The fact they were competitive in any games last season gives me hope as they could not of been any less prepared to compete each week.
The Ice Cube - I think it was more like Freddie hit the pause button for a year. I see this year as what should have followed the 2018 season. The book on new head coach Stefanski is that he will make sure his team is prepared, which will be quite a change from a coach who scripted the first series of plays and then decided to wing it for the rest of the game. Game prep in the NFL cannot be like a jam band; it has to be more intricate and meticulous like a Prince studio album. Freddie was a shitty drum circle. Stefanski should be more like "Sign O' the Times."
3) I have to ask, thoughts on Baker and OBJ?
Big$- I am a full blown Baker apologist. There is no substitute for accuracy and arm strength in the NFL and he has demonstrated both. I will ride with him until the wheels fall off.
As for OBJ , I expect Hooper to be a bigger threat this season.
The Ice Cube - This will be a rebound year for Baker and OBJ. I think both guys struggled because Baker was trying to force OBJ the ball last year. A few different dynamics should raise both of their games. First, the offensive scheme of the new regime will feature more play-action passing and bootlegs, which play to what have been Baker's traditional strengths. Last year, how many times did we see him continue to fade back in the pocket and press to improvise. This year, when moving, he will be moving toward the line with more options, particularly in the middle of the field. As for OBJ, he should be healthy after his offseason surgery, and teams will have to dedicate more safety help in covering the Browns tight ends, which could result in more single coverage situations for OBJ. Bigger numbers for both dudes in 2020.
4) What is the absolute ceiling for this squad and what is the floor?
Big $ As noted in q1, I believe 9-7 is the ceiling pending health etc.. If players start to fall we could be back to 5-6 win range
The Ice Cube - I honestly think (full discloure: after 4 Great Lakes Oktoberfests) an 11-5 season is possible when looking at the schedule. The floor, 6-10. Until they can show that they won't shit down their leg against league dregs (see the finale against the Bengals last year) you can take nothing for granted.
5) What would it take for the NCP to call this a successful season?
Big $- Over .500 would be nice
The Ice Cube - The end of the COVID pandemic and shot-gunning beers in the Muni Lot on January 3rd before the season finale against the Steelers with at least an outside chance at the playoffs.