The NBA may have struck gold, Jerry. After years of the NFL making fun of its T.V. ratings, now even that old fogey baseball taunts the NBA for doing only marginally better than the MLB. The MLB! But last year the NBA tried out the Play In format for the Postseason, an idea I first heard from the sportswriter Bill Simmons years ago. Okay, decades ago. The NBA adopted a much tamer version and here’s how it works.
The top 6 seeds in each Conference advance to the playoffs. Seeds 7-10 in each conference qualify for the Play In Tournament. The 7th seed plays the 8th seed with the winner advancing to the playoffs. The 9th seed will play the 10th seed with the winner advancing to the final Play In game against the loser of the 7th vs 8th game. Whoever wins that match up will then advance to the playoffs as the 8th seed. This means a 7th or 8th seed has to lose two games in a row to miss the playoffs while the 9th or 10th seed has to win two straight. That’s the advantage given to the teams that finished with the 7th and 8th best records.
This format has garnered some criticism for not rewarding regular season performance. But that critique usually comes from those having to participate in it even if a year ago they sang quite the different tune. Fickle is the heart of a king. But who’s not mad? The fans! This has gotten people talking and fans excited about a mini March Madness in May. And it makes a lot of sense for this format to be a mainstay in the future.
The NBA has problems with tanking and load management. Both are bitter pills to swallow for the sports fan. It’s really the antithesis of why people watch sports. But by giving more teams an opportunity to make the playoffs (and that playoff revenue) it pressures franchises to emphasize winning to appease a hungry fan base. As opposed to giving up on a season and battling for the best lottery odds, teams just a few games away from the Play In are motivated to compete for a spot.
The one and done format also adds a new layer of excitement. Now, it is true that a ‘best of’ series is probably the best way to determine the better team. But what’s better than a Game 7? In effect, each tournament game is a game 7 with everything at stake. It’s a great way for the NBA to try and capitalize on the best parts of March Madness. The NBA could also play less regular season games replacing them with more tournament games near the end of the year. This can also help with load management as well and let’s not kid ourselves. Who wants to watch the worst teams in the league play even more games?
If there’s one tweak I’d want to make that might improve the format, it’s this. I would include only teams that are within a certain amount of games of 8th place. I would let the NBA set this mark near the end of the season to ensure enough participants for a Play In Tournament. This will allow teams that have substantially better records to automatically qualify for the playoffs and fill the tournament with teams on a similar competitive level. Taking the example of the West standings below, I’d maybe cut out San Antonio and consider having to be within 3 games of the 8th spot to qualify for the tournament. In different years this could mean more teams.
Fans of the NBA are like, well fans of the NBA. Irrationally hyperbolizing the league and what it does is just kind of what we do. So there is a lot of buzz about this and a lot of hype. The NBA has been looking to make some waves after dismal tv ratings over the last year and Wednesday night’s Lakers-Warriors clash is exactly what they wanted. There will be a lot of eyes on that game and I think the NBA will be pleased with what they’ve created. The Play In Tournament is gonna be worth the buzz.
Read on for predictions on the Play In games and check back later this week for the Pencilstorm NBA Playoffs Preview.
Tuesday Games
Indiana Pacers vs. Charlotte Hornets - LaMelo Ball is on track to be one of the NBA’s next young stars as the likely Rookie of the Year but I think the younger Hornets will fall to a more experienced Pacers squad. Pick: Pacers
Boston Celtics vs. Washington Wizards - The Celtics have had a disappointing season and the Wizards have really stormed back the 2nd half of theirs. Look for Russell Westbrook to continue his streak of signature Russ games while Boston won’t overcome the loss of Jaylen Brown in a Wizards upset setting up a 1st round matchup of Westbrook v. Durant. - Pick: Wizards
Wednesday Games
Memphis Grizzlies vs. San Antonio Spurs - The Grizz played surprisingly well without the services of Jaren Jackson Jr. for most of the year. The Spurs had a subpar year and I think a hungry Grizz team will come through after losing 2 straight in last year’s Play In. Pick: Grizzlies
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors - I’d be interested in seeing how much of a difference a 9pm EST start would have on tv ratings but this is the matchup of matchups. Two large fan bases with animosity towards each other in addition to the LeBron vs. Steph rivalry renewal. Steph Curry has put up MVP numbers (as predicted by yours truly) this season and he is again must watch tv. A Curry Flurry can roast any team in the league and there’s really no answer. The Lakers are gonna rely on Anthony Davis and their size while hoping no one else steps up big for Golden State. It should be enough. Pick: Lakers
Thursday Game
Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers - I think the Celtics will be operating under the assumption that they need to win to save Coach Brad Steven’s job. I don’t think that will actually be the case but there should be enough Celtic pride for them to win this game to set up a classic 76ers-Celts first round matchup. Pick: Celtics
Friday Game
Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies - The Grizzlies impressed this year and appear to be on the right track. This game may be closer than expected but I feel the Warriors championship pedigree will be enough for them to return to the playoffs this year. I would not be happy if I were the Jazz, their 1st round opponent. Pick: Warriors