Colin: Let’s start with the quarterback position that is the talk of Columbus. The old saying is that if you have two QB’s, you have none. Is that how you see it?
Baver: It’s hard to worry much about that position when Ryan Day is the head coach. While the QB’s won’t put up the numbers that Stroud did last year, at a minimum I think Ohio St will be fine at QB. They have a former 5-star recruit in Kyle McCord, while Devin Brown rated as 4 or 5 stars depending on the recruiting service. And Ohio St doesn’t need Stroud’s huge passing numbers this year. I think the health of the running backs cannot get anything but better, and should help the first-year starter(s) behind center a great deal.
Colin: Brian Hartline seems to be adding greatly to the best WR group in the country, but the O-line appears to be a bigger question mark than in most years. Your thoughts on the rest of the offense?
Baver: It’s an embarrassment of riches at WR, no doubt. CFB guru Phil Steele’s incoming freshmen WR rankings have OSU’s Brandon Inniss, Carnell Tate and Noah Rogers (respectively) at #2, #3 and #4 nationally. Tate is going to see action this year for sure, but Marvin and Emeka, health pending (knock on wood) will be the best pair in CFB, and there isn’t enough playing time to spread around.
There are definitely some concerns as to whether the new offensive tackles, Jimmy Simmons (left tackle transfer from San Diego St) and Josh Fryar (RT), are going to get the job done. If they aren’t at least adequate, it’s hard to see the Buckeyes making the CFB Playoff again this year. The running backs, as I mentioned, almost have to be healthier, and they should rival Michigan’s as the best group in the country.
Colin: Okay, since you brought up the Michigan monkey on OSU’s back….
Baver: Right or wrong, it’s enormous. I do think it’s rather absurd that some fans are talking about booting Ryan Day to the curb, but losing the way Ohio State did last November has really pushed this team’s back to the wall. In watching the OSU player interviews at the Big Ten media days, I did notice that “beating the team up North” was the first thing out of their mouths when asked about season goals. I may be wrong, but I don’t remember players mentioning this a year ago. It had better not be lip service, because if the urgency level is far higher this year, God help this team.
Colin: New defensive coordinator Jim Knowles’ defense collapsed in the last two games a year ago when they needed it most. Had it been a little better, Ohio State would have likely won it all. Will this defense make bigger strides in Knowles’ second year?
Baver: I think it will make MUCH bigger strides this year. You have contract years for Mike Hall Jr, JT Tuimoloau, Tyleik Williams, Denzel Burke, and Jack Sawyer. The NFL scouts think highly of all those guys, and Mike Hall may absolutely explode. You also have two 5-star studs in Sonny Styles and CJ Hicks entering year 2. And finally, the top 3 cornerbacks look like nice upgrades from a year ago. If it doesn’t make those big strides that you asked about, DC Jim Knowles will take some serious heat, and rightfully so. Talent-wise, they are loaded.
Colin: Do we need to talk about Indiana?
Baver: You and I don’t….as long as this Buckeye team isn’t overlooking them, which could mean Indiana ‘hangs around’ for a while.
Colin: Okay, then talk about the rest of OSU’s schedule.
Baver: It’s Ohio State’s toughest schedule in years. They travel to #13 Notre Dame to play at night Wk 4…..play a 7th-ranked Penn St team in Wk 7, and follow that with a trip to #19 Wisconsin for an expected night game. And of course, they have the November finale at #2 Michigan.
If you are looking at regular season wins totals (RSWs), a popular sportsbook summer bet, OSU’s win projection is 10.5 compared to 11 a year ago at this time. Yet the OSU team ‘power ratings’ that the betting experts have come up with have OSU’s rating about the same as they were a year ago at this time. The thought is that OSU’s improvement on D approximately offsets their downgrade on offense (that is due to questions at QB and on the O-line). So, it’s the tougher schedule that is lowering the win projection, and not the overall talent that OSU is expected to put on the field.
Colin: With Notre Dame, they looked very, very impressive with transfer QB Sam Hartman under center. A couple questions: 1) Is he the best Irish QB since….2) How concerned are you about this match-up and what concerns you specifically?
Baver: Sam Hartman is a star…..in my opinion he’s one of the top 3 QB’s in CFB. He’s been a star for several years, but flew under the radar playing for Wake Forest. He’s the best QB the Irish have had since….probably Brady Quinn. Defending him would be my top concern in that game. The next biggest would be OSU utilizing its WR’s to full capacity while having a new QB and new starters at the three most important positions on the O-line.
Colin: How bout some quick picks against the spread with sports betting now live in Ohio?
Baver: I like the Buckeyes laying the points (as long as you’re laying less than 31) against an Indiana team that has fallen from grace since the Covid year. The Bucks should be motivated to start strong, and if they don’t, they’ll still wear down the Hoosiers in the 2nd half. The other one I like is TCU laying the 20.5 against Colorado. The jury is still out on Deion in the long run, but Colorado is another team that I see getting worn out and trounced in the 2nd half. Deion ran off too many guys that could have helped in Year One.
Go Bucks!