Colin & Baver Q & A: 2nd ranked Buckeyes face 3rd ranked Ducks in Eugene
Colin: Is anything other than a National Title acceptable for this stacked Buckeye squad?
Baver: You have Buckeye players saying publicly that it’s Nati or bust. I would hope that’s how they feel; as you said, this team is stacked. As for the fans, there is a truckload of OSU fans saying the same thing. But I wouldn’t be counting chickens before they hatch. Circa Sportsbook’s Nat’l Title odds imply that Ohio St has (about) a 21% chance to win it all. Circa is the sharpest sportsbook in the US when it comes to many of America’s biggest sports, with college football being one of them. So, as good as this team is, I think that gives you a good indication of the parity making its way back to CFB. It’s been a wild ride for many top teams so far this year.
I don’t quite view it the way you phrased it, but there is no denying that OSU’s short-comings in the Nat’l Title department are well-documented. You and I have followed OSU football going (almost) back to the Archie Griffin years. And during that time, Ohio St has been the most consistent team in college football, while countless Buckeye teams have seriously challenged for the national title. But if you look at the last 50 years, Ohio State has brought home just 2 national title trophies. So, while the odds are against winning it in any one, certain year…winning 2 titles in 50 years with all the top-5 teams they’ve had isn’t sitting so well with many fans these days. Let’s hope that this is the year that another title trophy makes it to the Woody Hayes Athletic Center.
Colin: How does the new 12-team playoff affect the meaning of these huge regular season match ups? Isn’t it likely these two squads will rematch in the Big Ten title game and possibly a 3rd time in the playoffs?
Baver: Yeah, I think you and I are somewhat in the minority with our opinions on going from a 4-team playoff to a 12-team playoff. I see it as too big of a jump, tripling the number of teams in the playoffs. If I rooted for someone other than Ohio St, maybe I’d feel differently. But when your team could never afford more than one loss, those 2 or 3 huge CFB Saturdays in the fall couldn’t get any better. And yeah, we could see two or three matchups with Oregon this year and/or in the near future.
Colin: OSU has been blessed recently with exceptional QB play. How does Will Howard stack up against the past decade of starters at that position?
Baver: Well, you’ve got CJ Stroud and Justin Fields leading the way. JT Barrett had 147 total TD’s in his career, and his leadership skills were on another level. I’d say that is some tough competition. But Howard has been great so far. His feel for a collapsing pocket is exceptional, and he’s very elusive for a 235-pound guy. Howard’s been more accurate than I expected him to be as well…though he’s gotten a little sloppy with some of his passes over the past three games. Other than the three guys I mentioned, I’m not sure Howard will end up taking a back seat to any of the others. Still, the biggest games are ahead of him, with Saturday’s game in Eugene being his first big one.
Colin: Give me your thoughts on Oregon.
Baver: The Ducks made some changes on its O-line after struggling up front in games 1 & 2. That unit has made some nice strides over their last three games. Tailback Jordan James is averaging just under 100 yds rushing per game, and the Oregon WR core is elite, led by preseason All-American, Tez Johnson. (Phil Steele rated the Oregon WRs as his #1 WR group nationally in his preseason mag; yes, ahead of Ohio St’s WRs.) Sounds like Duck QB Dillon Gabriel had a strong interest in transferring to Ohio St this past December, but Day wanted to wait until after the bowl game to evaluate things further. Gabriel is a good QB, but I do think the Bucks got the better of the two transfer-QBs, as well as the better team-fit, in Will Howard. And 247 Sports did have Howard ranked higher than Gabriel in their transfer portal QB ratings.
On D, Oregon’s line was thought to be the weak point of their D, but they’ve been getting after opposing QB’s. Edge Jordan Burch has 5 sacks already, and will be the best pass rush OSU has faced to this point, if not all year. And two other Duck D-linemen have combined for 6.5 sacks so far. Pro Football Focus (PFF) had Oregon inside linebacker Bryce Boettcher rated as the top LB in CFB after 4 games. In the secondary, CB Jabbar Muhammad and safety Tysheem Johnson are the top are good ones.
Colin: Give us your final thoughts on the Buckeye’s trip out west?
Baver: I read an On3 tidbit yesterday noting that 2024 Big Ten teams have lost 7 of 9 games when traveling two or more time zones. And Autzen Stadium may only seat 55,000, but that place gets loud. I think the Ducks 6’ 6” tight end Terrance Ferguson could create some problems for this Buckeye team. And I’m guessing this ends up being a tight game. Dan Lanning has done a great job so far at Oregon, and should have his team ready to go. Still, this Buckeye team has so many weapons on offense to go along with a nasty defense. And don’t look now, but all-world transfer Caleb Downs has started to find his comfort zone in this Jim Knowles complicated defensive scheme. I’ll call it Ohio State 28 Oregon 23. Go Bucks!
Your Pencil Storm prognosticators are back for another season of Friday bets for real. These are actual bets placed by actual people. However, it is important to remember that we are not encouraging you to follow our lead and gamble your hard earned money away on our behalf. But it is also important to remember that “winners play and players win baby!” Ok, let’s do this.
Big $ (Pencil Storm Browns Beat Writer)
Saturday
I think the Black Knights continue to roll, and Dilfer's UAB offense will falter:
Army v UAB under 54.5 (-105)
I think Washington found something mixing up the qbs last week:
Washington +3 vs Iowa (-110)
Mizzou is looking for style points
Missouri -27 vs Umass (-115)
Sunday
1 bet- Aj Brown over 80 receiving yards against the browns (+125)
good luck, fade or tail
Colin Gawel (Colin’s Coffee, Pencilstorm, Musician at Watershed)
I like Penn State to cover at USC and I will take the under as well.
Jeremy Porter (musician, writer, lover of Mexican fast food)
On tour so no time to plan, but I lost on the SF game last night and I got AMERICA’S TEAM the lions to beat the Cowboys Sunday. Since I’m playing Boise tonight, I’ll take Boise State over Hawai’i -20.5. And I don’t bet on baseball, but GO TIGERS! xx
OMG (Baller, Sharp)
I Like Ohio State to cover at Oregon