It's that time of the year when fans of the NBA start watching NBA games. Yes, the playoffs are finally here! The field isn't as wide open this year even with the wild, wild West. It's basically can anyone beat Boston in the East and the defending champion Nuggets in the West. While each series may be competitive and close, the answer seems to be not likely.
As an aside, I was listening to the new Pearl Jam album while writing this. They’re known for being pretty big basketball fans. For their sake, I hope there's an announcement soon about a new basketball franchise in Seattle.
Here's bassist Jeff Ament’s NBA guitar with his favorite players. He played hoops briefly at the University of Montana.
And to add to the recent theme of celebrating venerable Ohio radio stations, an inside source reports that when Pearl Jam was touring in support of Ten, WMMS (The Buzzard) in Cleveland challenged them to a pick-up basketball game. With the help of Cleveland Browns ringers Hanford Dixon and Bubba Baker, the Buzz? eked out a victory over those grungy slackers.
As is my tradition about this time of the year, I like to point out just how well I fared with my predictions. Last year, I got 14 of the 16 playoff teams right and called the winner correctly in 11 of the 15 total playoff series played.
Didn't do as well this season but still pretty decent, decent. I got 6 of 8 in the East (8 of top 10) and 6 of 8 in the West (9 of top 10). That's 12 of the top 16 actual playoff teams and 17 of the top 20 seeds.
Think it's safe to say I kinda know ball. Now, I wasn't quite so accurate with the seeds and how long each series went but that's also probably why the NBA didn't hand me a lifetime suspension for betting. On to the preview, folks.
Eastern Conference
#1 Boston Celtics (64-18) vs. #8 Miami Heat (46-36)
A rematch of last year's East Finals with one huge difference. Miami will be without Playoff Prince Jimmy Butler who injured his MCL in their Play-In game. The Celtics get another lucky break. The luck of the Irish indeed. The Heat upset the Celtics last year as an eighth seed but they'll be hard-pressed to win even once against this vastly improved Boston squad. But I thought the same thing about the one-versus-eight Bucks-Heat series last year. Without Butler wreaking havoc on the other side, Boston's just hoping to get past this series without any serious injury.
Prediction: Celtics in 5
#2 New York Knicks (50-32) vs. #7 Philadelphia 76ers (47-35)
Last year, the number two seed in the East won 57 games. That the Knicks are the only other team besides Boston to win 50 in the conference this year just shows how much the East regressed. Injuries may have had a lot to do with that which is why this matchup will be the most riveting of the entire first round. The Sixers were 30-8 when Joel Embiid played this year and they have a real chance of making the East Finals. Perhaps the reigning league MVP was adhering too closely to fellow favorite son Benjamin Franklin's famous quote: “It is better to take many Injuries than to give one.”
This one's a real tough choice because, with Embiid, Philly has a real shot. But the Knicks’ grit and defense along with Jalen Brunson should be enough to give them a slight edge over a Philly team that may retool in the offseason. But Tom Thibodeau is no stranger to playoff letdowns. My Sixers source says no one knows anything about Embiid's health so this one’s a tossup. I just hope Joel can stay healthy because he deserves to have a say.
Prediction: Knicks in 7
#3 Milwaukee Bucks (49-33) vs. #6 Indiana Pacers (47-35)
My preseason pick to make the Finals in the East, the Bucks added superstar Damian Lillard but never reached their great expectations. Now, with Giannis Antetokounmpo questionable to even play in the series with a calf injury suffered on April 9th, the Indiana Pacers led by burgeoning superstar Tyrese Haliburton are ready to call next. The Pacers have a young squad and surprised many this year. The future is looking bright in this basketball state, especially with the addition of Caitlin Clark to their WNBA squad.
Reports are that Giannis should miss two to four weeks so it will need to be Dame Time all the time while he's out. The Bucks started the season 30-13 with new coach Adrian Griffin before he inexplicably got fired, followed by the even more inexplicable hiring of Doc Rivers. The Bucks limped to a 19-20 record with the local Marquette product at the helm and Indiana is primed to pull an upset. The Bucks' deep experience should be the difference, however.
Prediction: Bucks in 6
#4 Cleveland Cavs (48-34) vs. #5 Orlando Magic (47-35)
Just four games separated seeds two through eight in the East so at least there's parity which has been a great model for the NFL. Any given Sunday translating to any given series. The teams finding themselves directly in the middle are a still frustrating Cavs squad and the surprise upstart Magic. The future of the Cavs is uncertain with a looming extension or potential trade involving their best player, Donovan Mitchell.
The Cavs stuck with J.B. Bickerstaff after a disappointing first-round exit last year and they may be well-advised to cut ties this off-season. The team simply hasn't reached its potential. The Magic, like the Pacers, have a great core and are well set up for the future. But playoff experience matters and Cleveland should advance to the next round.
Prediction: Cavs in 6
Western Conference
#1 Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25) vs. #8 New Orleans Pelicans (49-33)
The West too has plenty of parity but to their credit, it's just at a higher level. Five teams reached 50 wins and that's without legitimate title contenders in the Lakers and the Suns. Every series is up for grabs and while Denver is still the heavy favorite, there's really no telling what's gonna go down.
It starts with this series and while the OKC Thunder deserve a lot of credit for the incredible season they've had with the second-youngest team in the NBA, they very much lack recent playoff experience. The Pelicans don't really have much more and they may be out their best player, Zion Williamson. While the Pellies have shown some fight, that might be too much to overcome against MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and impressive rookie, "Honest” Chet Holmgren.
Prediction: Thunder in 7
#2 Denver Nuggets (57-25) vs. #7 Los Angeles Lakers (47-35)
A rematch of the conference finals which none other than the NBA's best player, Nikola Jokic, called Denver's toughest matchup last year. The Lakers struggled with injuries to several role players all season but managed to improve their record this year which would have seen them finish fourth last season. There's no word yet if defensive specialist Jarred Vanderbilt, out since February 1st, will return in time for the series but that would be a big boost for a squad that will need all the help they can muster against a team that has straight dominated them, winning eight straight showdowns.
But the Lakers have a relatively healthy LeBron James and Anthony Davis plus a much better supporting squad than last year when, although they were swept, were close in the fourth quarter. Denver’s average margin of victory was six points against Los Angeles while they beat every other team by at least double-digits. So I'm saying there's a chance. Still, Denver has relished their chances at beating L.A. and it would take superhuman efforts from both LeBron (39!) and Anthony Davis (76 games!) for Los Angeles to pull off the upset.
Prediction: Nuggets in 6
#3 Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26) vs. #6 Phoenix Suns (49-33)
The Timberwolves made impressive strides this season, contending for the number one seed into the final days. Led by Anthony Edwards, a great player-slash-personality who will be one of the future faces of the league, the T-Wolves also boast the number-one defense in the NBA. They'll be going up against Kevin Durant's latest superteam, alongside scorers Devin Booker and Bradley Beal.
The Suns were my pick to finish first in the West this year and this looks to be a great matchup of offensive prowess versus defensive versatility. I'm sure Anthony Edwards, their AlphaWolf, will try to prove he's the best player on the court but I think Kevin Durant and Devin Booker will both have a lot to say about that. I don't see the rest of the Wolves showing up like they’ll need to so the Suns should advance with their superior top-end talent.
Prediction: Suns in 6
#4 Los Angeles Clippers (51-31) vs. #5 Dallas Mavericks (50-32)
The Mavericks have been playing some of the best basketball of any team as of late. Kyrie and Luka (my MVP pick) have learned to optimize working off each other but the most telling stat may be that Dallas has had the seventh-best defensive rating since the trade deadline. For the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard (surprise, surprise) is listed as questionable with a knee injury for Game 1.
Outside of Nuggets-Lakers, this series should be the most interesting to watch in the West. These two teams have already played a couple memorable playoff series with Doncic dominating but his supporting cast just not having enough in the end. The Clippers will be moving into their new arena next season but haven't won a playoff series since 2021. I think the Clippers have superior depth and should prevail.
Prediction: Clippers in 7
2nd Round Picks
Eastern Conference
#1 Boston Celtics vs. #4 Cleveland Cavaliers
Celtics in 5
#2 New York Knicks vs. #3 Milwaukee Bucks
Bucks in 7
Western Conference
#1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #4 Los Angeles Clippers
Clippers in 6
#2 Denver Nuggets vs. #6 Phoenix Suns
Nuggets in 7
Conference Finals
#1 Boston Celtics vs. #3 Milwaukee Bucks
Celtics in 7
#2 Denver Nuggets vs. #4 Los Angeles Clippers
Nuggets in 6
Finals
#1 Boston Celtics vs. #2 Denver Nuggets
My preseason Finals prediction was Lakers over Bucks in six but after the performances of head coaches Doc Rivers and Darvin Ham, that seems a little far-fetched now. The Nuggets and Celtics just have too much talent and great complementary pieces. Shoutout to Reynoldsburg native and former Penn State big man Calvin Booth who's been the Nuggets GM since 2020 for building an excellent roster. Similar kudos should be given to Celtics architect Brad Stevens, the former Butler head coach, who put together a team that dominated the NBA this season.
I just don't see Boston with any answer for Jokic however and he's surrounded by too many shooters and solid role players that play beautifully as a team, all under an excellent head coach in Michael Malone. The Celtics just won't be able to match up well enough in the clutch so I see Denver repeating.
Nuggets in 6