Before sitting down to write this, I took advantage of the hot, hot heat on a fantastic Friday and went out to the park to shoot some hoops for the first time this year. Always a pivotal moment for me: an unofficial declaration that spring has sprung and that this year I’ll finally start caring about my body.
When I was a kid, I used to go out to the driveway and play out my own NBA playoffs. I’d pretend I was different players on the best teams and go back & forth, envisioning the outcomes of the games in my head. Hot Rod Williams was the hero for the Cavs many a time, mainly because I couldn’t shoot like Mark Price.
And yes, I probably did the same thing 15 years ago, pretending I was Kobe against the likes of LeBron James in my desired NBA Finals matchup. (I really thought it was gonna happen!) Back then, it would have been the closest thing to LeBron playing Jordan in the Finals. Today, it would be LeBron versus Cleveland for a chip. Still the ultimate showdown.
As I preview this year’s playoffs, it’s very, very possible that Lakers-Cavs finally happens. Just brace yourselves, LeBron haters. But first, a little self-plug if you don’t mind. In my season preview, I got 9 of the top 10 right in the East (had Sixers instead of Pistons) and 8 of the top 10 in the West (Suns and Pels instead of Rockets and Clips). 17 of 20 ain’t too shabby!
But I impress. Here’s a look at the first round of the NBA playoffs.
Western Conference
#1 Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) vs. #8 Memphis Grizzlies (48-34)
Memphis was one of the top seeds in the West most of the year, but started faltering after the All-Star Break, culminating in a surprise firing of the well-respected Taylor Jenkins. They’ve gone 5-6 since then, and it doesn’t seem like the season will last much longer for them.
Oklahoma City is a historically great team, and it would be shortsighted to seriously think any other team in the West is better than them. They can be beaten, but their track record and talent level this year says it would be nigh impossible to do so in a 7-game series.
Prediction: Thunder in 5
#2 Houston Rockets (52-30) vs. #7 Golden State Warriors (48-34)
This is one of the most intriguing matchups of the first round. The Rockets have been one of the league’s greatest surprises, but the Warriors remain the Warriors, and new edition Johnny Gill Jimmy Butler has made them true contenders.
I’m a little old-school where I think young teams with lacking playoff experience shouldn’t be expected to go far. While I would love to see Jae’Sean Tate reach the second round, I think the Lakers-Warriors series everyone wants is just bound to happen. Another final LeBron-Curry showdown.
Prediction: Warriors in 7
#3 Los Angeles Lakers (50-32) vs. #6 Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33)
The Lakers got the draw they wanted in Minnesota, a much less imposing squad with Julius Randle instead of Karl-Anthony Towns. Drafted by the Lakers, Randle has been a nice player, but not one who’s equated much to winning basketball. He’ll have to play incredibly well if the Wolves want any chance at succeeding.
The Lakers with a good coach have been a revelation, and they somehow played better on defense with Luka Doncic than they did with Anthony Davis. Speaking of Luka, I still can’t. It’s still shocking and leaves me speechless if I try to think about how the hell it could have happened. I’ve never believed in conspiracy theories, but I would at least listen on this one.
At least it would give Mavs fans some peace of mind that greater powers were at play here, and their ownership didn’t just make one of the worst moves in world sports history, maybe since Commodus spared Maximus in the ancient Colosseum all those centuries ago. Shout out, Ridley Scott.
Prediction: Lakers in 6
#4 Denver Nuggets (50-32) vs. #5 Los Angeles Clippers (50-32)
This should be the most fun series of the first round. Even while favored, this will be one of the bigger challenges Nikola Jokic has faced in his career. The Clippers have been balling out and playing like championship contenders lately. The emergence of center Ivica Zubac and the resurgence of beard James Harden have really raised the team’s potential.
As with any series involving Kawhi Leonard, his health will be a major story and the biggest factor toward his team’s success. How he and the rest of the Clippers handle Jamal Murray will likely determine if the world’s best player loses in the first round for the first time in his career. The shocking dismissal of coach Michael Malone less than two weeks ago is also an underrated element.
Prediction: Nuggets in 7
Eastern Conference
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers (64-18) vs #8 Miami Heat (37-45)
While the Heat ought to be taken seriously, the Cavs should be fine in this series. They will need to get into playoff mode because each round is going to get much harder than the last. This is all they’ve wanted since last season’s abrupt end in the hands of the eventual champion Celtics.
Miami will challenge Cleveland at times, but they’ve basically punted on title-contending this year. They’ll be going to Cancun soon with dreams of Giannis arriving over the summer. The Cavs will just be focused on not repeating last year’s seven-game close call against 7th-seeded Orlando.
Prediction: Cavs in 5
#2 Boston Celtics (61-21) vs. #7 Orlando Magic (41-41)
The biggest threat to everyone in the league this year is the defending champion Boston Celtics. And for good reason, too. Simply put, Oklahoma City, Cleveland, and Boston have played a step apart from everyone else this year. They are the clearly elite teams of this season. But the Celtics are the only ones that have ever done anything in the playoffs.
The Magic are a fun, young team, but have already lost key players to injury and shouldn’t put up much of a fight against a vicious, veteran Boston squad.
Prediction: Celtics in 4
#3 New York Knicks (51-31) vs. #6 Detroit Pistons (44-38)
The Knicks have been a disappointment this year. Even with making massive moves in the offseason, indicating a win-now mentality, New York has not been able to step up the level of the best teams in the league. The Pistons are feisty and play a lot like the city of Detroit. It is not the best-case scenario for New York.
The Knicks don’t want a Cade Cunningham becomes Trae Young situation. They don’t want to be embarrassed by this newest reiteration of the Bad Boys. I also think this might be the last dance of the Thibodeau-led Knicks. Would be no surprise whatsoever if Queens native Michael Malone helms this team next season (please be Pitino, please be Pitino). Having said all that, I’m picking them to prevail
Prediction: Knicks in 6
#4 Indiana Pacers (50-32) vs. #5 Milwaukee Bucks (48-34)
This should be the best series in the East. The Pacers ended up playing excellent basketball to finish the season and are one of the few teams with a chance to unseat Cleveland or Boston. But first, they have to get past a Bucks team with the second-best player in the world and Damian Lillard’s incredible heart.
Lillard was diagnosed with a blood clot on March 25th but has made a never-before-seen recovery and is expected to play at some point in this series. That changes a lot for Milwaukee, although a situation quite like this has never happened, and all sides will proceed with caution. In the end, Giannis is the best player in the series by far and should be able to get Milwaukee past the surging Pacers.
Prediction: Bucks in 7
I should be back to preview the later rounds, but here’s how I see it playing out as of now:
Western Conference
Second Round
A Thunder-Clippers series could be super fun, but I’m not discounting my boy Nikola publicly. The horse whisperer averaged a triple-double this season! But the Thunder resound.
Thunder over Nuggets in 6
LeBron James was drafted in 2003. Stephen Curry was drafted in 2009. In 2005, they are still the biggest draws in the NBA. This is the series everyone wants, and I hope they get it. But Lakers in 5 6.
Lakers over Warriors in 6
Western Conference Finals
I know what you’re thinking. And, yes, I wanna do it. But not here, not right now. Let me do a slow build into the momentum it eventually takes to truly believe your team can win a title. Nope, not today.
Thunder over Lakers in 6
Eastern Conference
Second Round
Cavs over Bucks in 6
There are doubts from Northeast Ohio’s faithful (the ones that aren’t Luka Doncic fans) that the Cavaliers can really do the damn thing. But Cleveland isn’t just a suburb of Akron. And it’s time to believe.
Classic NBA franchises. Boston holds a 36-31 advantage over New York in playoff matchups. They’ll get to 40 wins after this series is said and done.
Celtics over Knicks in 6
Eastern Conference Finals
These have been the inevitable teams in the East. Cleveland has had an incredible season and given folks the joy of believing. Boston was the best team last year, and no one can claim they can beat them until they do. Cleveland will.
Cavs over Celtics in 7
Finals
I don’t think teams that lack great experience win titles. But here we have two of them, and there can only be one. And I sure as hell am absolutely not picking the Celtics. Just went with the best team this time. A remarkable rise to the top for the team that broke up Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and Kendrick Perkins.
Thunder over Cavs in 6